Wednesday, October 18, 2017

Spread Offense 10/18/17: College Football Week 8 Preview


By Pat Luhta, @PLuhta

Upsets galore was the trend for week 7, and my new top 10 ballot reflects those changes.

WEEK 8 TOP TEN

10. Wisconsin (last week: 10)
9. Notre Dame (last week: NR)
8. Oklahoma (last week: NR)
7. Clemson (last week: 1)
6. Miami (last week: 9)
5. Ohio State (last week: 7)
4. TCU (last week: 5)
3. Georgia (last week: 4)
2. Penn State (last week: 3)
1. Alabama (last week: 2)

The upsets started on Friday night, where both Clemson and Washington State went down to unranked teams. Clemson lost QB Kelly Bryant in the 2nd quarter and the Syracuse Orange played well out there and pulled off a huge upset. Clemson fell from the #1 spot in my top 10 ballot to #7, thanks to some other upsets along with giving them the benefit of the doubt due to Bryant's injury. Then, the Washington State Cougars were not only beat, but humiliated, by the Cal Golden Bears. Top 10 teams do get upset, it happens, but losing 37-3 to an unranked team is unforgivable and fell out of my top 10. The Cougars' rival, the Washington Huskies, also fell ill with the upset bug. The Huskies looked bad against the Arizona State Sun Devils and lost a sloppy game, 13-7. And just like their in-state rival, they also fell out of my top 10.

I still do not want to move Wisconsin from that 10 spot, it's not only that they haven't played a good team but they haven't blown a team out like other schools have been doing. If they were blowing the doors off these teams then I could start buying into them, but 33-24 against Northwestern, 38-17 against Nebraska and 17-9 against Purdue isn't doing much to sway my opinion.

For the 2nd week in a row, 2 new teams are in my top 10. Oklahoma makes an appearance again after a big win against rival Texas, stabilizing themselves after a rough couple of weeks. And I'm starting to buy Notre Dame, who makes an appearance at #9 this week. A 1 point loss to Georgia(who is ranked #3) is all that is separating them from currently being undefeated, they have convincingly won all of their other games and that includes a 38-18 road win at Michigan State.

Alabama takes back the #1 spot, where many felt they rightfully belonged in the 1st place.



HEISMAN WATCH

5. Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville
4. Jonathan Taylor, RB, Wisconsin
3. Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma
2. Bryce Love, RB, Stanford
1. Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State

Right now, this seems like a 3 player race for the Heisman. Lamar Jackson's Heisman run is on life support now as it appears he won't be going back to back with trophy wins. And Jonathan Taylor has popped up on my Heisman watch list after his 2nd straight 200 yard performance. Wisconsin will hit the bulk of the schedule soon so his campaign will be defined by that stretch.

Baker Mayfield pops back up to 3 after a big game against Texas, also helping his campaign are the struggles of Lamar Jackson and Luke Falk last week. RB Bryce Love had yet another big game, rushing for 147 yards and 2 scores in a 49-7 win over Oregon. Penn State was off last weekend, but Barkley has Michigan this week followed by Ohio State, 2 huge games for him to stake his claim to the Heisman trophy.



WEEK 8 PREVIEW


#20 UCF at Navy - 3:30 PM

Week 8 doesn't have quite the slate of good games that we normally hope for, but this game is a nice appetizer before the 2 huge night games

Central Florida is not having any problems on offense or defense this season, averaging 50 points per game while only giving up just under 17 points per game. QB McKenzie Milton has been impressive this season, his 15 TD's and his 70% completion percentage currently has him as the 2nd highest rated QB in the nation as far as passing efficiency goes. The Golden Knights also add a balanced running attack to go along with their passing game, averaging 225 yards a game on the ground. Navy is looking to bounce back after their first loss of the season last week, a 30-27 loss to Memphis in a game where they turned the ball over 5 times.
Navy always offers some unique challenges, their triple option is tough to defend and the Midshipmen average just under 400 rushing yards per game. The key will be for UCF to get them out of their comfort zone and force them to pass, 3rd down and long situations and getting on the scoreboard early and building a lead will do it. Easier said than done though, QB Zach Abey already has over 1,000 rushing yards on the season and Navy will turn to him to keep the offense going and get a big win here.

PREDICTION: UCF 38-20


#19 Michigan at #2 Penn State - 7:30 PM

Saquon Barkley vs. the Michigan defense.

That's what this game comes down to, Barkley is a Heisman candidate that accounts for 38% of Penn State's offense. He is both their leading rusher and receiver and Penn State goes as he goes. Michigan though, doesn't allow many yards, especially on the ground, and they are possibly the best defense in the country. They only allow 85 rushing yards and 138 passing yards a game and the most points that they've given up in a game has been 20. Michigan will especially need the defense to show up due to their struggling offense, they will need to turn to the run game heavily in this game in order to score some points. If Barkley does break loose a bit though and Penn State has some success against the stingy Michigan defense, then Michigan will be put in a tough spot due to their issues at QB and it will be made into an even tougher game for them to win. The "white out" at Beaver Stadium will be in full effect as they have not forgotten the 49-10 loss that Michigan handed them last year, while Michigan looks to make a huge statement on the road and keep their sights set on a Big Ten championship.

PREDICTION: Michigan 24-23


#11 USC at #13 Notre Dame - 7:30 PM

A big rivalry here takes place Saturday night, with the USC Trojans heading to South Bend, IN to take on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. On paper, this looks about as even as it gets, both teams are similar in points per game, points allowed per game, total yards for per game and total yards against per game. USC continues to escape games this season, as was the case last week as they defeated Utah, 28-27. They have turnover issues which is the cause of these close games, including a loss to Washington State, and they are facing a Notre Dame team that is good enough to where they can't afford to play a sloppy game. Notre Dame has won 4 straight since their 1 point loss to Georgia, and each game has not been a contest even. The Irish may not have a big passing game, only 7 passing touchdowns in 6 games, but their rushing attack(which includes QB Brandon Wimbush) has been getting it done. Wimbush and RB Josh Adams have combined for nearly 1,200 rushing yards and 13 TD's, this is something that USC needs to contain in order to pull off a big road win. If Notre Dame can keep their running game going though along with pressuring USC QB Sam Darnold and getting some turnovers then this will be a statement win for them.

PREDICTION:
Notre Dame 30-27

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