By Pat Luhta, @PLuhta
WEEK 11 TOP TEN
10. Washington (last week: NR)
9. Wisconsin (last week: 10)
8. Auburn (last week: NR)
7. TCU (last week: NR)
6. Miami (last week 7)
5. Oklahoma (last week: 6)
4. Notre Dame (last week: 5)
3. Clemson (last week: 4)
2. Georgia (last week: 2)
1. Alabama (last week:1)
Week 10 scrambled some more things around as 3 top 10 teams on my ballot lost. The most shocking being the Ohio State Buckeyes losing to Iowa, 55-24. Losing on the road in conference play happens, but for a team that was in the playoff hunt to lose by 31 to a 5-3 team is unacceptable. OSU still controls their own destiny to the Big Ten championship, but kiss all playoff hopes goodbye after that performance.
Another team that is now out of the playoff race is fellow Big Ten team, Penn State. After blowing a 35-20 4th quarter lead against Ohio State in week 9, the Nittany Lions went to Michigan State looking for a bounce back game. After a 4 hour thunderstorm delay, the game resumed and instead of getting a bounce back game, they got bounced out of playoff contention on a last second field goal to lose 27-24.
Bedlam was just that, as the Oklahoma Sooners knocked off their rival Oklahoma State Cowboys, 62-52. QB Baker Mayfield put up 598 passing yards and 5 touchdowns in this game, and Oklahoma is still alive in the playoff hunt while Oklahoma State is out.
Miami needed a "prove it" game as their undefeated record wasn't being taken seriously due to the competition they've beaten. They got that last Saturday against Virginia Tech and they passed it with flying colors, knocking off the Hokies 28-10. Both the offense and defense answered the call as they moved the ball on one of the toughest defenses in the country while shutting down one of the better offenses in the country. They are legit contenders and there should be no more questions on how good this team is.
Alabama and Clemson both notched victories over ranked teams, and I've been saying that I wouldn't move Wisconsin from the 10 spot but they do move up to #9 now as a 1 loss Washington, that might have actually played a worse schedule than Wisconsin, sits at 10.
HEISMAN WATCH
5. Khalil Tate, QB, Arizona
4. Bryce Love, RB, Stanford
3. Josh Adams, RB, Notre Dame
2. Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State
1. Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma
We have a new #1 on the Heisman watch. Baker Mayfield torched the Oklahoma State Cowboys, throwing for 598 yards with 5 touchdowns and should now be the favorite to win the Heisman. What also helped Mayfield take over the #1 spot is that RB Saquon Barkley has had 2 underwhelming performances in games in which the Nittany Lions lost. The Heisman is all about being the best player in the biggest moments and Baker Mayfield has been huge for the Sooners when it matters the most while Barkley has not come through when Penn State needs him the most.
The "J.T. Barrett is a Heisman finalist" hype lasted a whole week, replacing him on the list is Arizona QB Khalil Tate. Tate doesn't throw the ball much but is a huge threat in the running game, with over 146 yard rushing in 5 straight games including a 230 and 327 yard game.
Tate might be a little late to make a charge, but any of the top 4 could end up winning the Heisman trophy.
#12 Michigan State at #13 Ohio State - 12:00 PM
Two weeks ago, Michigan State lost a triple OT game against Northwestern that could have started a downward trend for the Spartans with Penn State and Ohio State next on the schedule. There's no doubting this teams mental toughness now though, as they rose up last Saturday and beat Penn State 27-24 to put themselves in position to win the Big Ten East. QB Brian Lewerke has thrown for 400 yards in each of the last 2 games, and could easily make it 3 against Ohio State's secondary. After a big win against Penn State that brought OSU back into the playoff race, the Buckeyes are back to the drawing board after a 55-24 loss to Iowa. The OSU secondary needs to improve if they want to win this game and the defense overall needs to step up. On offense, the Buckeyes will need to keep running the ball while opening up the downfield passing game, both things that they failed to do while trying to come back against Iowa. Ohio State has faced Michigan State 5 times under head coach Urban Meyer, with a total score of 121-120 in favor of OSU so expect a closely fought game that will come down to the 4th quarter.
PREDICTION: Ohio State 28-27
#1 Georgia at #10 Auburn - 3:30 PM
Fans are starting to dream of a SEC championship that features 2 undefeated teams, and the team that is capable of crushing those dreams are the Auburn Tigers. Auburn faces Georgia this week and hosts Alabama in week 13, so while we are this close from getting a battle of 12-0 teams playing for the SEC, Auburn has 2 chances to eliminate the possibility. The Tigers are led by QB Jarrett Stidham and RB Kerryon Johnson, who will be the key players in this game if they are to win this one. Auburn has scored over 40 points in 6 of their 7 wins but only 6 points and 23 points in their 2 losses, so the Tigers will need to move the ball and put up points against a tough Georgia team here. Georgia has possibly the best defensive line in the country with a good secondary to complement them, and their offense is fully capable of scoring on any team in the country, led by RB’s Nick Chubb and Sony Michel. QB Jake Fromm is the wildcard, a true freshman going into an environment like this may be too big of a moment for him. As long as he relies on his RB's though while making the necessary throws, all should be good for the young QB.
PREDICTION: Georgia 31-23
#2 Alabama at #16 Mississippi State - 7:00 PM
Alabama has this game and the Iron bowl against Auburn as the hurdles left before reaching the SEC Championship game. They come in with a run first offense, which features RB's Damien Harris and Bo Scarborough along with QB Jalen Hurts, and an efficient yet conservative passing game. Their main ingredient of success though is their defense, which shouldn't surprise anyone. The Crimson Tide only average 9.8 points allowed per game and if they can continue that success against Mississippi State then they will clear this hurdle. MSU will turn to QB Nick Fitzgerald and ask him to do it all on offense and find a crack in that Alabama defense. Fitzgerald is not only the QB but also leads the team in rushing, him finding success in both will be paramount for this team to have a chance. Their defense will need to force some turnovers and put their offense in good field position, but this one will be about the Bulldogs offense and if they can overcome Alabama's defense.
PREDICTION: Alabama 28-6
#6 TCU at #5 Oklahoma - 8:00 PM
This game has "explosive" written all over it. Oklahoma is led by QB Baker Mayfield, who has been putting up huge numbers en route to a possible Heisman trophy. The Sooners have one of the best offenses in the country and it's nearly impossible to win a shootout against them. Fortunately for TCU QB Kenny Hill and the Horned Frogs offense, they may not have to. TCU's clear advantage in this game is their defense, only giving up 13.5 points per game. This is what it will all come down to, if TCU can contain Oklahoma's offense and give their own offense a chance to score enough points to win the game or if Oklahoma can continue their offensive dominance and put too many points up for TCU to contend with. Both teams coming in 8-1 and 5-1 in conference with the winner all but wrapping up a trip to the Big 12 championship game, the stakes are very high here.
PREDICTION: Oklahoma 41-26
#3 Notre Dame at #7 Miami - 8:00 PM
The classic "Catholics vs Convicts" match up reignited here on Saturday night. Notre Dame comes to Miami being just 2 points away from being undefeated, while host Miami is still undefeated and looking to keep it that way. The big thing to keep an eye on here is Notre Dame RB Josh Adams, who left last week's game under vague circumstances. If he is rested up and at his best then it will be a tough night for the Hurricanes, who have struggled stopping the run this season, but if he suffers from fatigue again and has to be removed from the game then QB Brandon Wimbush will have to pick up the slack for the Fighting Irish offense. Miami looked good against Virginia Tech last week, but again their offense will be in the hands of shaky QB Malik Rosier, who will need to keep drives alive and make big plays when available just like they did last week. This should be another great game to watch as both teams have playoff aspirations.
PREDICTION: Notre Dame 27-24
Other games to watch: #9 Washington at Stanford, #15 Oklahoma State at #21 Iowa State, #20 Iowa at #8 Wisconsin
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