Spread Offense 11/2/17: College Football Week 10 Preview

By Pat Luhta, @PLuhta


WEEK 10 TOP TEN

10. Wisconsin (last week: 10)
9. Oklahoma State (last week: NR)
8. Penn State (last week: 2)
7. Miami (last week: 6)
6. Oklahoma (last week: 9)
5. Notre Dame (last week: 8)
4. Clemson (last week: 7)
3. Ohio State (last week: 5)
2. Georgia (last week: 2)
1. Alabama (last week: 1)

Two of the top 5 teams went down last Saturday, and as the first college football playoff ranking of the season are released this week, my top 4 is who I currently would have in.

While the SEC isn’t what it used to be, the conference does account for the top 2 teams in the country now as Georgia jumps up to 2nd after a dominating win over Florida coupled with a Penn State loss. Penn State was well on their way to making a statement against Ohio State, but a big 4th quarter comeback by the Buckeyes lead to a thrilling 39-38 OSU win, catapulting the Buckeyes up to #3 while dropping Penn State to #9. And Iowa State’s victory over TCU moved the needle for 2 teams in the top 10, 1 obviously being TCU who fell out of the top 10 after the loss. The other being Oklahoma, who lost earlier in the season to Iowa State, who at the time we all thought the Cyclones were average at best. Well that Iowa State team is now 6-2 and tied for the Big 12 conference lead, so maybe that loss to them wasn’t such a terrible loss overall, although the way they lost was somewhat unacceptable(up 24-13 at halftime and at home.) Knowing what we know now about ISU, Oklahoma gets a slight bump in the rankings since they really don’t have a "bad loss" after all.

I typically hate the "pat me on the back" kind of fan, so naturally I’m going to do that here. Leading up to their game against USC, I ranked Notre Dame at #9 (AP/coaches poll had them #13) and said that it’s time to start believing in this team. Well after a beat down of USC followed by another beat down of #14 North Carolina, looks like the rest of the country is joining me in buying in to this Notre Dame team. They’re good and should definitely be a team to watch going forward this season.

Wisconsin yet again remains at #10, their 24-10 win over a 2-6 Illinois team just wasn’t enough to convince me to move them up at all.


HEISMAN WATCH

5. J.T. Barrett, QB, Ohio State
4. Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma
3. Bryce Love, RB, Stanford
2. Josh Adams, RB, Notre Dame
1. Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State

Saquon Barkley all but had the Heisman trophy wrapped up after the 1st quarter against Ohio State. He returned the opening kickoff for a touchdown and followed it soon after with a 36 yard touchdown run. After that though, he was stuffed all game and finished with just 44 yards on 21 carries in which 9 of those 21 carries went for negative yards and he also only had 4 receptions for 23 yards. His 2.1 YPC looks bad especially since OSU came back and won the game, take away his lone touchdown run and that’s 20 carries for 8 yards even so he became a non-factor in a game that his team needed him the most.

Josh Adams on the other hand, closed the gap big time with his 202 yard performance against North Carolina State. The Notre Dame RB carried the ball 27 times with a 7.4 YPC and helped the Fighting Irish overwhelm the #14 ranked Wolfpack. He’s right there in discussion now for the Heisman and may very well take over as the favorite with Wake Forest, Miami, and Stanford left on their schedule.

Bryce Love’s best case for the Heisman might have came last Thursday, in a game that he didn’t play in. Without him, the Cardinal struggled against Oregon State and needed a costly turnover by the Beavers to pull out the win, 15-14. In his absence, Stanford looks like a middle of the road team, not the #21 ranked team that could win the Pac-12 North division.

And J.T. Barrett makes his way on the list after an incredible performance against Penn State. Barrett has been playing excellent ever since the Oklahoma loss, but it was against lesser competition so he really needed to show it against a top team before he could be considered a Heisman candidate. 33-39 for 328 yards and 4 TD’s against Penn State, he completed his final 16 passes, went 13-13 with 3 TD’s in the 4th quarter alone, which included the game winning TD pass with under 2 minutes left in the game.
With Barkley’s stumbling and Adams and Barrett on the rise, this Heisman trophy is wide open for the taking now.




#7 Penn State at #24 Michigan State - 12:00 PM

A meeting between two teams coming off very emotional losses last Saturday. Penn State traveled to Columbus in attempts to put their stamp down on Big Ten dominance, got up 35-20 in the 4th and then a big comeback by the Buckeyes happened which ended in a 39-38 Penn State loss. Michigan State was at Northwestern hoping to remain unbeaten in conference play, the game went into triple OT where MSU needed a touchdown to match Northwestern but an interception sealed the deal for the Wildcats and MSU suffered it's first conference loss. This game will be about how each team bounces back from that loss, could see both teams firing on all cylinders in a rage or could see them have the "hangover" effect, or one of each which will make for a lopsided game. Penn State just needs to stick with what they have been doing, which is getting the ball to Saquon Barkley while mixing in some read option QB runs and an occasional deep pass. Michigan State needs to find some offense, they only scored 14 points on 5 turnovers against Michigan, 10 points against Indiana and 17 points in regulation against Northwestern. Their defense is stellar but even the best defense will give up 14+ points to Penn State so they'll need to be able to answer those scores if they want a shot at this.

PREDICTION: Penn State 27-14


#21 Stanford at #25 Washington State - 3:30 PM

This game has a lot of variables going into it. The main variable is Stanford RB Bryce Love and if he's playing this week. Love sat out last week with an ankle injury and the Cardinal offense looked bad without him. The Heisman candidate is their main key to success on offense, so him being able to not only play but be effective will be huge for Stanford in getting a win here. The other variable is Washington State QB Luke Falk, who was benched last week due to his poor performance as the Cougars lost 58-37 to Arizona. Falk was once a Heisman candidate as well, but has been off ever since their loss to Cal and head coach Mike Leach saw enough last week to finally bench him. This can either motivate him to get back to playing like he was earlier in the season or could rattle his confidence and make him play just as bad, if not worse. This game really is a wait and see type game, a lot of factors will be going into this one to see which team will be able to get the win.

PREDICTION: Stanford 37-20


#4 Clemson at #20 North Carolina State - 3:30 PM

Clemson had a nice bounce back game against Georgia Tech, the Tigers defeated the Yellow Jackets in their first game back since suffering their first loss of the season. Their defensive line looked as good as ever, stifling the GT triple option running attack and controlling the tempo all game. They'll need that again this week as they go up against a NC State offense that's capable of putting a lot of points up on the board. The Wolfpack have a balanced offense, led by QB Ryan Finley and RB Nyheim Hines, they'll look to chip away at the Clemson defense with sustaining drives and tiring the defense out. Also, look for NC State DE Bradley Chubb to be all over QB Kelly Bryant, getting pressure and disrupting the Clemson QB will be a priority for one of the best defensive ends in the country. This is going to be a close game, they mimic each other in a lot of ways but Clemson may just have a little more talent here. The homefield advantage could even things out though, NC State will be building momentum off of that and looking to get a big win here in front of the home crowd.

PREDICTION: Clemson 27-21


#5 Oklahoma at #11 Oklahoma State - 4:00 PM

Get ready, because it is time for the Bedlam game. This matchup here is as even as it gets, both teams averaging close to the same amount of points, total yards, rushing yards and passing yards while on defense they are similar in points allowed and passing yards allowed (Oklahoma State has a slightly bigger edge in rushing defense.) The Sooners put together a complete game last week after struggling the previous 4 weeks and beat Texas Tech 49-27. If that teams shows up then it could be bad news for Oklahoma State, but the Sooners also struggled to beat Baylor, Texas and Kansas State while losing to Iowa State so it's a toss up on how the Sooners will play. Oklahoma State has also been up and down this season, they are capable of putting up a lot of points but also have some games where their offense just isn't clicking. 2 weeks ago against Texas for example, after beating Texas Tech 41-34 they were barely able to score on the Longhorns and squeaked out a 13-10 victory. So both teams are a bit of a wildcard here, we could have a shootout on our hands or see a defensive game while the offenses struggle. Both teams have the Big 12 championship and a playoff spot well within reach, the loser of this game though will all but be eliminated from playoff contention and will need help reaching the Big 12 championship game.

PREDICTION: Oklahoma 38-33


#13 Virginia Tech at #10 Miami - 8:00 PM

The battle for the top spot in the ACC Coastal division is right here. Miami has struggled to score points in their last 4 games, escaping with a win in every one of those 4 games. Their struggle started right around the time that RB Mark Walton went down with a season ending injury and the offense shifted to QB Malik Rosier. While Rosier throws for a lot of yards, his inaccuracy tends to kill drives, as he is over 50% completion percentage in just 2 of his last 4 games and is just 56% on the season. He'll need to be a lot more fluid and sustain drives if Miami wants to win this one, that may be a tough task though as the Hurricanes face a Virginia Tech team that only allows 11.5 points per game. If Virginia Tech can continue their dominance on defense and get their normal offensive output then that should be enough to take this win back home. The offense, led by QB Josh Jackson, loves spreading it out and playing fast so expect them to put up 24+ points in this game, leaving the onus on Miami to score with them. The Hokies have bounced back after losing to Clemson, they've won their last 3 and look to build off that here to take over the division lead.

PREDICTION: Virginia Tech 31-17


#19 LSU at #2 Alabama - 8:00 PM

Here's a game that always tends to be a big time defensive slugfest. Alabama may be playing with a chip on their shoulder now that the college football playoff rankings were revealed and they came in at #2 instead of their assumed spot at #1. The main thing for the Crimson Tide in this is to control the line of scrimmage and not turn the ball over, if they accomplish both of those things they should cruise to a victory. LSU needs to find some offense here, RB Derrius Guice will be keyed on so the Tigers will need QB Danny Etling to get the passing game going in order to open things up on offense. LSU's front 4, which includes projected top 10 pick Arden Key, will need to win the battle in the trenches and not let RB's Damien Harris and Bo Scarborough run all over them. If they can stop the run and put it in the arm of QB Jalen Hurts then they have a chance at forcing some turnovers and controlling time of possession.

PREDICTION: Alabama 27-6

Spread Offense 9/28/17: College Football Week 5 Preview

By Pat Luhta, @PLuhta


Week 4 certainly was fun, let's get right to my top 10 ballot and discuss further.


WEEK 5 TOP TEN

10. Ohio State (last week: 10)
9. TCU (last week: NR)
8. Michigan (last week: 9)
7. Washington (last week: 8)
6. USC (last week: 5)
5. Georgia (last week: 6)
4. Oklahoma (last week: 4)
3. Penn State (last week: 3)
2. Alabama (last week: 2)
1. Clemson (last week: 1)


The big change of the week is TCU joining the top 10 after their big win at Oklahoma State. Oklahoma State had been dominate on both sides of the ball all season and I was really buying in to them, but TCU overwhelmed them and brought home a lopsided 44-31 victory. QB Kenny Hill managed the game well and RB Darius Anderson could not be stopped, TCU were the big winners of the weekend and they have a top 10 ranking to show for it.

If you haven't started believing in the Georgia Bulldogs, then right now is a good time to start. The Georgia offense has so many weapons and their defensive line is one of the best in the country, they took on a Mississippi State team that just throttled LSU the week before and drilled them, 31-3. They flip flopped with USC after the Trojans yet again struggled to win convincingly against a team that they should've had no problems beating.

And we had 2 close calls in the night cap as both Penn State and Oklahoma avoided big upsets. Oklahoma struggled to win against a winless Baylor team, Baylor even recovered an onside kick in the final minute to give them a shot to tie the game but ultimately Oklahoma prevailed 48-41. And Penn State, while they dominated Iowa on the stat sheet, needed a touchdown on the last play of the game in order to defeat the Hawkeyes. It was truly a thrilling finish, that whole last drive was edge of your seat type feeling and QB Trace McSorley came up with the big throw when he needed to most and Penn State got the walkoff touchdown to remain undefeated.


HEISMAN WATCH

5. Luke Falk, QB, Washington State
4. Sam Darnold, QB, USC
3. Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville
2. Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State
1. Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma

Baker Mayfield remains in the #1 spot for the Heisman trophy, for now. RB Saquon Barkley showcased just how great he is on Saturday, shredding the Iowa defense in both rushing and receiving. Penn State even put him in on kick returns, that's how much they relied on him to bring home the win for the Nittany Lions and they needed every last one of those yards. Mayfield is still the choice, but it's very close now.

QB Luke Falk makes his debut on the Heisman watch as well. I know Mike Leach and the Washington State Cougars love throwing the ball, but 14 touchdowns to only 1 interception on a 4-0 team cannot be ignored. Add in his 1,378 yards and 76% completion percentage(yes, 76%) and we have the makings of a darkhorse candidate.



WEEK 5 PREVIEW



#5 USC at #16 Washington State - Friday 10:30 PM

We get treated to a big game on Friday night here in week 5 with the backend of an ESPN doubleheader(Miami-Duke before this is also a good game to tune in for) as USC heads to Pullman, WA to take on the Washington State Cougars. This one will be a battle of the QB's, both USC's Sam Darnold and WSU's Luke Falk are Heisman candidates and have been putting up big numbers this season. So in a battle of QB's, it always comes down to the defense and which team will be able to get the stops. This favors USC, as does a lot of other positions as their skill players on offense are also a bit better than WSU's. But USC has a knack for being a team that doesn't bust out it's full potential and flirts with losing a game that it should win based on talent level. Being on the road could be a factor as well for the Trojans, the Cougars have a big chance to make a statement here and come away with a huge home win. Knowing the way USC is though, after 2 weeks of sandbagging this will likely be a week in which they wake up and play like they are capable.

PREDICTION: USC 44-31


#7 Georgia at Tennessee - 3:30 PM

At 3:30 PM on Saturday, an old SEC rivalry kicks off. Tennessee had a heartbreaking loss to Florida 2 weeks ago and followed it up with a "hangover" game where they barely beat UMass, 17-13. Tennessee's offense looked stagant through 3 quarters against the Gators, but QB Quinten Dormady and RB John Kelly finally started getting a rythym down and put themselves in a position to win the game by scoring 17 4th quarter points, They'll need to find that rythym again and a lot sooner this game against Georgia, who boasts one of the top defensive lines in the country and hasn't given up more than 19 in a game all season. Georgia also boasts a pretty good offense, they are starting a 3 RB by committee approach and may have QB Jacob Eason back for this game as well. Tennessee hasn't beaten a top 10 SEC team at home since 1999 and this will be very tough to break that skid here against Georgia.

PREDICTION: Georgia 26-13


#24 Mississippi State at #13 Auburn - 6:00 PM

Last week, we were all trying to figure out if Mississippi State was for real or not. After a 31-3 beating by Georgia, how real they are remains in doubt. They came in with the #1 ranked offense and defense in the SEC, but Georgia was way too much for them and they didn't show that offense or defense out there. Auburn was beat down by Clemson earlier this season, luckily for them it wasn't a conference loss which makes it a better loss than the one Mississippi State took to Georgia. Mississippi State is clinging for the SEC West title hopes and needs this one big time, and will turn to their QB Nick Fitzgerald to lead the way for them. Auburn also has a pretty good QB in Jarrett Stidham and Auburn can remain right atop the SEC West, along with their rival Alabama, with a big win at home here.

PREDICTION: Auburn 27-17


#3 Clemson at #12 Virginia Tech - 8:00 PM

First off, if you want to see one of the best, if not the best, college football entrances then make sure you tune in a bit early for the pregame here as it doesn't get much better than Virginia Tech's. In a rematch of last year's ACC Title game, the Hokies look to avenge that loss to Clemson and make a big statement on Saturday night. This game will be a big step for redshirt freshman Josh Jackson, whose QB play has put the Hokies in ACC championship contender discussion. His 11 TD's on the season to only 1 interception has gotten some early Heisman buzz, and he can also do it on his feet which he showed off in the season opener against West Virginia where he rushed 11 times for 101 yards and 1 touchdown. Clemson also starts a redshirt freshman at QB, and Kelly Bryant is now not a stranger to big night games on the road. The Tigers went on the road to Louisville and came away with a big 47-21 victory, where Bryant threw for over 300 yards. The big key though, as always with Clemson, will be their defensive line. They have been bullying every team so far and have shut down the best players in the country, even defending Heisman trophy winner Lamar Jackson. If the defensive line can keep this up then it could make for a long night for Josh Jackson and the Hokies, so Virginia Tech will need to find a way to get him open looks in the passing game and some room to run as well. This should be a stellar game which we could see again later on in the ACC title game, here's to a fun Saturday night involving these two teams.

PREDICTION: Clemson 37-27

Spread Offense 11.25.16: Top 5 College Rivalry Weekend Games

By Pat Luhta, @PLuhta


So a couple of months ago, I attended a concert in which Slayer was one of the bands performing. In between songs about midway through their set, lead singer Tom Araya talked to the crowd and said "every single one of our songs is a love song." Now, if you know Slayer then you understand the confusion most of us had. If you don't know them then let's just say that they are a loud, head banging type thrash metal band that centers around some pretty dark lyrics. He then continued by saying that "they are considered love songs to him because they love making music and playing it for us, and we are here tonight because we love hearing music."

That's what rivalry week is, even though it's referred to as "hate week." This week is about hating your rival, but also about embracing the spirit of what this week is all about and having fun with it. You hate your rival but there's nothing to hate about this week, instead of "hate week" it's really "love to hate week."

This year is no different, and many rivalry games have a lot on the line in this penultimate weekend of college football. Though we are 2 Saturdays away from knowing who is in or out of the playoffs, most playoff potential teams have a "lose and you're out" situation for them, essentially making this a playoff game.

These 5 rivalry games are especially meaningful to not only their respective schools, but also have the most meaning going forward as far as the playoffs are concerned.

5. #13 Auburn at #1 Alabama - Nov 26th, 3:30pm
The Iron Bowl is traditionally one of the best rivalries in college football, though this year there really isn't much on the line.

Alabama has clinched the SEC West and is almost assured a playoff spot barring a loss here and a loss in the SEC title game. They won't take this game lightly though with bragging rights on the line here against their bitter rival.

Auburn is looking for the upset here as there is still a shot that they could get into a New Year's 6 bowl game. A win would also put some doubt into people's minds on Alabama being a playoff team, and would at least set up Alabama in a must win game in the SEC title game. Winning this rivalry game and pinning their rival's backs up against the wall is more than enough incentive for the Tigers here.

4. South Carolina at #4 Clemson - Nov 26th, 7:30pm
This Palmetto state rivalry game will be about a big underdog on the road attempting to play spoiler.

South Carolina's season has been underwhelming under 1st year Head Coach Will Muschamp. They are 6-5 on the season, but have a bit of momentum going for them as they have won 4 of their last 5 games. They look to capitalize on that momentum and end their regular season on a huge positive note with a win over their non-conference rival, which would knock Clemson out of playoff contention.

Clemson knows what's at stake here and they know they are facing a rival with nothing to lose. The Tigers are already in the ACC title game but they are just 1 loss away from falling out of the playoffs, losing to their rival and watching their playoff hopes slip away would just add insult to injury.

Will Clemson take a step closer to the playoffs or will South Carolina step up and knock them out?

3. #15 Florida at #14 Florida State - Nov 26th 8pm
2 weeks ago, the college football playoff rankings were turned upside down when the #2, #3 and #4 ranked teams all lost. That opened up a glimmer of hope for the Florida Gators, who may somehow control their own destiny now. Florida does have 2 losses, but a backloaded schedule of LSU, Florida State and Alabama means that by winning out then they could backdoor their way into the college football playoffs.

They were #23 at the time, and after a win  over #16 LSU, they have now jumped to #15. Heading to their in-state rival will be step 2 in order to keep hope alive, and a big win here could vault them up into the top 10 heading in championship week.

Florida State will not be headed to the playoffs this season, but this is always a huge rivalry game for them and they could still find themselves in a New Years 6 bowl with a win here. A loss here though and they won't be playing in a prestigious bowl so they will need this game in a big way.

Florida needs this to have any chance at getting into playoff discussion while Florida State looks to cap off a regular season with a win as they head to a big bowl game.

2. #5 Washington at #23 Washington State - Nov 25th, 3:30pm
A few short years ago, both teams came into this game with winless records. Now, they come into this game with the winner advancing to the Pac-12 title game.

Washington State started the season off 0-2, including a loss to an FCS school. They then rattled off 8 straight victories before having that streak snapped last weekend by Colorado. While they won't be in the playoffs this season, a win and Pac-12 title berth would be huge for this growing program.

Washington has only one blemish on their schedule, a loss to USC, and have playoff aspirations still as a win here and in the Pac-12 title game could secure them a spot in the top 4. A loss though in either and they are eliminated from contention.

The Apple Cup decides the winner of the Pac-12 North division, both teams entering the game with a 7-1 conference record. Washington State can get a big program boost while knocking their rival out of the playoffs, Washington can continue their road to the playoffs with a big win and Pac-12 title berth.

1. #3 Michigan Wolverines at #2 Ohio State Buckeyes - Nov 26th, 12pm
The biggest rivalry has the biggest playoff implications, starting with the loser being eliminated from contention.

Michigan has a fairly simple playoff road, win this game and they are in the B1G title game. Win the title game and they are a lock for the playoffs, simply put, Michigan is one of the few teams that controls their own destiny.

Ohio State has a bit more murky of a path, as a win does not guarantee them a spot in the B1G title game. They need a win plus a Penn State loss, but if they win and PSU also wins then that will open up a major discussion on if a team that didn't win their conference should still go to the playoffs. They will be at the mercy of the playoff committee, and while it seems the majority of people feel that they will be in regardless, it all depends on how other teams' season finish and they may end up sliding from #2 to #5 and miss the playoffs.

Ask either team though and they'll tell you that it's all about this game, the playoff scenarios and next opponents do not matter to them right now. This game is just as big, if not bigger, than a playoff game. 

10 years ago we were given a #1 vs. #2 matchup that ended up being the game of the century, this year has shades of that game in the making. Winner keeps an inside track to the playoffs, loser has to pine over this loss for a year while being eliminated from the playoff discussion.