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Tuesday, November 21, 2017

Podcast 11/21/17: On Thanksgiving Foods, College Rivalry Weekend, Browns Lose Again, Nathan Peterman & More

Friday, November 17, 2017

Spread Offense 11/17/17: College Football Playoff Breakdown

By Pat Luhta, @PLuhta

So I'm here to switch up things a bit in my weekly college football article. Due to lack of marquee games this week, I'll be breaking down the college football playoff picture instead of doing a week 12 preview. But before I get to that, here's MY current top 10 ballot.

WEEK 12 TOP TEN

10. USC (last week: NR)
9. Notre Dame (last week: 4)
8. Ohio State (last week: NR)
7. Wisconsin (last week: 9)
6. Georgia (last week: 2)
5. Auburn (last week: 8)
4. Oklahoma (last week: 5)
3. Clemson (last week: 3)
2. Miami (last week: 6)
1. Alabama (last week: 1)

PLAYOFF PICTURE BREAKDOWN

There is currently only one team that has locked in a playoff spot, the Alabama Crimson Tide(barring a crazy upset by Mercer this weekend.) Alabama plays Auburn to end their regular season, if they win then they go on to the SEC championship game to face Georgia. If they lose, then Auburn goes to the SEC championship game. So there’s 3 scenarios for the Crimson Tide, they either win out, beat Auburn and lose to Georgia in SEC title game, or lose to Auburn and not qualify for the SEC title game. All 3 situations give Alabama a max of 1 loss, and they aren’t dropping them from #1 to out of playoffs over a loss to either Auburn or Georgia.
So Alabama is in, so where does that leave us as far as the other 3 playoff spots are concerned?

There are a total of 6 teams that currently control their own destiny, meaning if they win out then they are in. Miami, Clemson, Oklahoma, Wisconsin, Auburn and Georgia are the 6 teams vying for 3 remaining playoff spots, if they win out then they punch their ticket but if they lose than they are all but out of it, and a few teams may end up playing each other in what could amount to elimination games. Miami vs Clemson is set for the ACC title game, and there’s a possibility that Auburn vs. Georgia could meet in the SEC title game, so championship weekend could shape up to be a playoff weekend in itself.

Miami is the team that potentially has a “get out of losing a game” free card, but only if they lose to Clemson in the ACC title game. Losing to Virginia or Pitt could take destiny out of their hands, losing to either of those teams then following it up with a loss to Clemson and they are eliminated. The committee was skeptical of the Hurricanes up until the past 2 weeks, and after handily beating Virginia Tech and Notre Dame they have won their respect so Miami losing a game would not be as damaging as the other teams that control their destiny.

Clemson on the other hand, has to win out or else they are at the mercy of how other teams’ fare . They face the Citadel(haha ok then), at South Carolina in the Palmetto State rivalry and then Miami in the ACC title game, and while Tigers fans probably don’t want to hear this, Clemson’s only shot at losing a game and still making the playoffs is a loss to South Carolina. If they lose to the Citadel then they fall too far to make up the ground and if they lose to Miami in the ACC title game then the committee won’t be selecting a 2 loss team that didn’t win their conference. So Clemson needs to win out to ensure their spot, but if they lose to South Carolina then beat Miami to become ACC champs, then they still have a shot.

Georgia is somewhat in the same boat as Clemson is, but they need to tread very carefully these next two games. After their 40-17 loss to Auburn, the committee dropped them from #1 all the way to #7, so needless to say there’s now some skepticism. Another loss likely takes them out of the playoff race, but winning the SEC title might be enough to salvage their chances and get a playoff spot. The SEC championship is a must though, if Georgia beats both Kentucky and Georgia Tech but then loses to either Alabama or Auburn in the SEC title game, then they are out.

The other 3, Oklahoma, Wisconsin and Auburn, are all in a win out or be out situation.
Auburn has a shot to be the first ever 2 loss team to make the playoff. If they beat Alabama then go to the SEC championship game and beat Georgia(again) then there's no way that the committee can leave them out despite the 2 losses on their schedule. But at the same time, one loss the rest of the way and they are done so they would need to run the table and beat UL-Monroe, Alabama and then Georgia in order to get in.

Oklahoma has to run the table, because the committee has tipped their hands at how they feel about the Big 12. Aside from Oklahoma, only TCU and Oklahoma State remain in the top 25 so the Big 12 is not well represented at all, which puts Oklahoma in a must win situation despite only having 1 loss currently. Fortunately, Oklahoma has 2 very winnable games left in regular season with Kansas and West Virginia on their schedule and will likely be facing either TCU or Oklahoma State in the Big 12 championship game, 2 teams that they've already beaten. The opportunity is right there for them to take advantage of, but they have to take care of business or no playoffs for them.

As for Wisconsin, they are currently undefeated but sitting outside the top 4 playoff rankings. Their lack of schedule strength is what is holding them back, a 7-3 Northwestern team is their best win on the season. If they lose just 1 game then do not expect the committee to show mercy on them, they'll be dropped far enough that they won't be able to climb back up in time. Only possible chance for them to sustain a loss and make the playoffs would be for them to lose to Michigan but then beat Minnesota and win the Big Ten championship against Ohio State or Penn State, but even then it's a long shot.

This is the situation with Wisconsin and why I haven't given them much credit and still have them at #7 in my top 10 ballot, it's not so much their lack of schedule strength as it is their lack of impressive wins. I don't fault Wisconsin for their schedule for the most part, they can only control their non-conference schedule so the fact that the Big Ten schedule rotation got them to avoid Ohio State, Penn State and Michigan State while getting Michigan at home along with the B1G West being down right now is not on Wisconsin. The problem that I have with Wisconsin is that when they play these bad teams, they aren't really showing that dominance the other teams show when they play bad teams. 33-24 to Northwestern, 38-17 to Nebraska, 17-9 to Purdue, 38-13 to Maryland and 24-10 to Illinois doesn't jump out as a team that can take on an Alabama or Clemson and put up a fight for the national title. Their opportunity to show it is coming though, if they can run the table and end up 13-0 in a power 5 conference then there's no chance of them being left out.

Then there are a few teams that are still alive in the playoff hunt, but need to win out plus get some help in order to make the final 4. Ohio State, Notre Dame, Penn State and USC are all still in the running, but destiny is out of their hands.

Notre Dame might end up being the biggest long shot of the 4 to make the playoffs simply because they do not have a conference championship game. They play Navy this week and Stanford in the regular season finale, then they have to sit back and wait while all other playoff contending teams play the following weekend. The Fighting Irish need to hope that it goes chalk with Alabama, Miami and Oklahoma winning out, Wisconsin to lose a game and not win the Big Ten, and the B1G East winner to lose a regular season game but beat Wisconsin. That’s basically what Notre Dame is up against, so that loss to Miami last Saturday could very well have been a playoff eliminator.

Remember when I said that Notre Dame might be the biggest long shot? Well Penn State just said “hold my beer” on that statement. The Nittany Lions need to win out, but due to the Big Ten tiebreakers, they also need Ohio State to lose both of their games and Michigan State to lose at least 1 of their remaining 2 games. The Problem? Ohio State is hosting Illinois, who is currently a 41 point underdog to the Buckeyes, and Michigan State hosts Maryland and then goes to Rutgers. In that scenario, then Penn State would have 2 conference losses while OSU and MSU would end up with 3, and if then they would either have the tiebreaker with Michigan if the Wolverines beat both Wisconsin and OSU or if Michigan loses to Wisconsin then they would sit alone top the B1G East division. Even after all of that, they would need some chips to fall their way with teams that control their destiny losing. It all starts this weekend though, Penn State needs to be rooting for Illinois big time, because if the 41 point underdog can somehow pull this game off then doors begin to open, but if they lose to Ohio State then that door is slammed shut.

USC is already in their conference championship game, so all they can do is win out by beating UCLA then whoever they face in the Pac-12 title game. The best case scenario is for them to face Washington State, who is currently in a 3 way tie in the North division, so they can avenge one of their 2 losses on the season and make a case to the committee that to not look at the 3 point loss on the road but rather a neutral site win is more indicative of USC. From there they’ll just have to wait it out, hope for some upsets and see how it plays out. They’ll really want Ohio State and Auburn to lose, those 2 schools are ranked the highest of all 2 loss teams so USC will need them to lose in order to jump them in the rankings(Penn State is also ranked higher but a conference championship for USC will leapfrog them over PSU). Right now, all USC can do is win out and use their Pac-12 title as a bargaining chip incase some chaos were to happen.

As for the Ohio State Buckeyes, well let's just say that Ohio State fans are going to be required to do some things that will make them feel a little disgusted about. This is going to be tough for me to write since I am a Buckeyes fan but...here goes...Ohio State needs to be HUGE Alabama Crimson Tide fans the rest of the way. I know, I know, "yuck!" comes to mind here but OSU cannot afford to have 2 teams from the SEC make it so they need Alabama to first knock out Auburn in week 13 then knock out Georgia in the SEC title game. Aside from wanting Alabama to win out, and fortunately this isn't a guaranteed necessity, OSU may also want to pull for Michigan this Saturday against Wisconsin. I'm almost positive that 1 loss eliminates Wisconsin(meaning OSU beating an undefeated Wisconsin team in B1G title game knocks them out), but Wisconsin losing once before the title game and OSU handing them their 2nd loss will remove all doubt. Miami losing once before the ACC title game means that automatically either the Hurricanes or Clemson will suffer the 2nd loss, but if they are still undefeated heading into the ACC title game then they need to beat Clemson. If that happens then Alabama, Miami(or Clemson/Miami winner if Miami loses before ACC title game), Oklahoma and Ohio State are the 4 teams, that's what the Buckeyes need to get in. So Ohio State needs to run the table and win the Big Ten, and root for Alabama(big time), Michigan(possibly) and either Clemson or Miami to be a 2 loss non conference champ along the way.

So there you have it, a complete breakdown of what teams need in order to make the playoffs. The playoff picture is becoming clear, but knowing college football means knowing to expect chaos these next few weeks.

Tuesday, November 14, 2017

Podcast 11/14/17: College Football Shake Up, Browns & NFL Week 10, LeBron Vs. NY & More

Friday, November 10, 2017

Spread Offense 11/10/17: College Football Week 11 Preview

By Pat Luhta, @PLuhta

WEEK 11 TOP TEN

10. Washington (last week: NR)
9. Wisconsin (last week: 10)
8. Auburn (last week: NR)
7. TCU (last week: NR)
6. Miami (last week 7)
5. Oklahoma (last week: 6)
4. Notre Dame (last week: 5)
3. Clemson (last week: 4)
2. Georgia (last week: 2)
1. Alabama (last week:1)

Week 10 scrambled some more things around as 3 top 10 teams on my ballot lost. The most shocking being the Ohio State Buckeyes losing to Iowa, 55-24. Losing on the road in conference play happens, but for a team that was in the playoff hunt to lose by 31 to a 5-3 team is unacceptable. OSU still controls their own destiny to the Big Ten championship, but kiss all playoff hopes goodbye after that performance.

Another team that is now out of the playoff race is fellow Big Ten team, Penn State. After blowing a 35-20 4th quarter lead against Ohio State in week 9, the Nittany Lions went to Michigan State looking for a bounce back game. After a 4 hour thunderstorm delay, the game resumed and instead of getting a bounce back game, they got bounced out of playoff contention on a last second field goal to lose 27-24.

Bedlam was just that, as the Oklahoma Sooners knocked off their rival Oklahoma State Cowboys, 62-52. QB Baker Mayfield put up 598 passing yards and 5 touchdowns in this game, and Oklahoma is still alive in the playoff hunt while Oklahoma State is out.

Miami needed a "prove it" game as their undefeated record wasn't being taken seriously due to the competition they've beaten. They got that last Saturday against Virginia Tech and they passed it with flying colors, knocking off the Hokies 28-10. Both the offense and defense answered the call as they moved the ball on one of the toughest defenses in the country while shutting down one of the better offenses in the country. They are legit contenders and there should be no more questions on how good this team is.

Alabama and Clemson both notched victories over ranked teams, and I've been saying that I wouldn't move Wisconsin from the 10 spot but they do move up to #9 now as a 1 loss Washington, that might have actually played a worse schedule than Wisconsin, sits at 10.

HEISMAN WATCH

5. Khalil Tate, QB, Arizona
4. Bryce Love, RB, Stanford
3. Josh Adams, RB, Notre Dame
2. Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State
1. Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma

We have a new #1 on the Heisman watch. Baker Mayfield torched the Oklahoma State Cowboys, throwing for 598 yards with 5 touchdowns and should now be the favorite to win the Heisman. What also helped Mayfield take over the #1 spot is that RB Saquon Barkley has had 2 underwhelming performances in games in which the Nittany Lions lost. The Heisman is all about being the best player in the biggest moments and Baker Mayfield has been huge for the Sooners when it matters the most while Barkley has not come through when Penn State needs him the most.

The "J.T. Barrett is a Heisman finalist" hype lasted a whole week, replacing him on the list is Arizona QB Khalil Tate. Tate doesn't throw the ball much but is a huge threat in the running game, with over 146 yard rushing in 5 straight games including a 230 and 327 yard game.

Tate might be a little late to make a charge, but any of the top 4 could end up winning the Heisman trophy.

#12 Michigan State at #13 Ohio State - 12:00 PM

Two weeks ago, Michigan State lost a triple OT game against Northwestern that could have started a downward trend for the Spartans with Penn State and Ohio State next on the schedule. There's no doubting this teams mental toughness now though, as they rose up last Saturday and beat Penn State 27-24 to put themselves in position to win the Big Ten East. QB Brian Lewerke has thrown for 400 yards in each of the last 2 games, and could easily make it 3 against Ohio State's secondary. After a big win against Penn State that brought OSU back into the playoff race, the Buckeyes are back to the drawing board after a 55-24 loss to Iowa. The OSU secondary needs to improve if they want to win this game and the defense overall needs to step up. On offense, the Buckeyes will need to keep running the ball while opening up the downfield passing game, both things that they failed to do while trying to come back against Iowa. Ohio State has faced Michigan State 5 times under head coach Urban Meyer, with a total score of 121-120 in favor of OSU so expect a closely fought game that will come down to the 4th quarter.

PREDICTION: Ohio State 28-27

#1 Georgia at #10 Auburn - 3:30 PM

Fans are starting to dream of a SEC championship that features 2 undefeated teams, and the team that is capable of crushing those dreams are the Auburn Tigers. Auburn faces Georgia this week and hosts Alabama in week 13, so while we are this close from getting a battle of 12-0 teams playing for the SEC, Auburn has 2 chances to eliminate the possibility. The Tigers are led by QB Jarrett Stidham and RB Kerryon Johnson, who will be the key players in this game if they are to win this one. Auburn has scored over 40 points in 6 of their 7 wins but only 6 points and 23 points in their 2 losses, so the Tigers will need to move the ball and put up points against a tough Georgia team here. Georgia has possibly the best defensive line in the country with a good secondary to complement them, and their offense is fully capable of scoring on any team in the country, led by RB’s Nick Chubb and Sony Michel. QB Jake Fromm is the wildcard, a true freshman going into an environment like this may be too big of a moment for him. As long as he relies on his RB's though while making the necessary throws, all should be good for the young QB.

PREDICTION: Georgia 31-23

#2 Alabama at #16 Mississippi State - 7:00 PM

Alabama has this game and the Iron bowl against Auburn as the hurdles left before reaching the SEC Championship game. They come in with a run first offense, which features RB's Damien Harris and Bo Scarborough along with QB Jalen Hurts, and an efficient yet conservative passing game. Their main ingredient of success though is their defense, which shouldn't surprise anyone. The Crimson Tide only average 9.8 points allowed per game and if they can continue that success against Mississippi State then they will clear this hurdle. MSU will turn to QB Nick Fitzgerald and ask him to do it all on offense and find a crack in that Alabama defense. Fitzgerald is not only the QB but also leads the team in rushing, him finding success in both will be paramount for this team to have a chance. Their defense will need to force some turnovers and put their offense in good field position, but this one will be about the Bulldogs offense and if they can overcome Alabama's defense.

PREDICTION: Alabama 28-6

#6 TCU at #5 Oklahoma - 8:00 PM

This game has "explosive" written all over it. Oklahoma is led by QB Baker Mayfield, who has been putting up huge numbers en route to a possible Heisman trophy. The Sooners have one of the best offenses in the country and it's nearly impossible to win a shootout against them. Fortunately for TCU QB Kenny Hill and the Horned Frogs offense, they may not have to. TCU's clear advantage in this game is their defense, only giving up 13.5 points per game. This is what it will all come down to, if TCU can contain Oklahoma's offense and give their own offense a chance to score enough points to win the game or if Oklahoma can continue their offensive dominance and put too many points up for TCU to contend with. Both teams coming in 8-1 and 5-1 in conference with the winner all but wrapping up a trip to the Big 12 championship game, the stakes are very high here.

PREDICTION: Oklahoma 41-26

#3 Notre Dame at #7 Miami - 8:00 PM

The classic "Catholics vs Convicts" match up reignited here on Saturday night. Notre Dame comes to Miami being just 2 points away from being undefeated, while host Miami is still undefeated and looking to keep it that way. The big thing to keep an eye on here is Notre Dame RB Josh Adams, who left last week's game under vague circumstances. If he is rested up and at his best then it will be a tough night for the Hurricanes, who have struggled stopping the run this season, but if he suffers from fatigue again and has to be removed from the game then QB Brandon Wimbush will have to pick up the slack for the Fighting Irish offense. Miami looked good against Virginia Tech last week, but again their offense will be in the hands of shaky QB Malik Rosier, who will need to keep drives alive and make big plays when available just like they did last week. This should be another great game to watch as both teams have playoff aspirations.

PREDICTION: Notre Dame 27-24

Other games to watch: #9 Washington at Stanford, #15 Oklahoma State at #21 Iowa State, #20 Iowa at #8 Wisconsin

Thursday, November 2, 2017

Spread Offense 11/2/17: College Football Week 10 Preview

By Pat Luhta, @PLuhta

WEEK 10 TOP TEN

10. Wisconsin (last week: 10)
9. Oklahoma State (last week: NR)
8. Penn State (last week: 2)
7. Miami (last week: 6)
6. Oklahoma (last week: 9)
5. Notre Dame (last week: 8)
4. Clemson (last week: 7)
3. Ohio State (last week: 5)
2. Georgia (last week: 2)
1. Alabama (last week: 1)

Two of the top 5 teams went down last Saturday, and as the first college football playoff ranking of the season are released this week, my top 4 is who I currently would have in.

While the SEC isn’t what it used to be, the conference does account for the top 2 teams in the country now as Georgia jumps up to 2nd after a dominating win over Florida coupled with a Penn State loss. Penn State was well on their way to making a statement against Ohio State, but a big 4th quarter comeback by the Buckeyes lead to a thrilling 39-38 OSU win, catapulting the Buckeyes up to #3 while dropping Penn State to #9. And Iowa State’s victory over TCU moved the needle for 2 teams in the top 10, 1 obviously being TCU who fell out of the top 10 after the loss. The other being Oklahoma, who lost earlier in the season to Iowa State, who at the time we all thought the Cyclones were average at best. Well that Iowa State team is now 6-2 and tied for the Big 12 conference lead, so maybe that loss to them wasn’t such a terrible loss overall, although the way they lost was somewhat unacceptable(up 24-13 at halftime and at home.) Knowing what we know now about ISU, Oklahoma gets a slight bump in the rankings since they really don’t have a "bad loss" after all.

I typically hate the "pat me on the back" kind of fan, so naturally I’m going to do that here. Leading up to their game against USC, I ranked Notre Dame at #9 (AP/coaches poll had them #13) and said that it’s time to start believing in this team. Well after a beat down of USC followed by another beat down of #14 North Carolina, looks like the rest of the country is joining me in buying in to this Notre Dame team. They’re good and should definitely be a team to watch going forward this season.

Wisconsin yet again remains at #10, their 24-10 win over a 2-6 Illinois team just wasn’t enough to convince me to move them up at all.

HEISMAN WATCH

5. J.T. Barrett, QB, Ohio State
4. Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma
3. Bryce Love, RB, Stanford
2. Josh Adams, RB, Notre Dame
1. Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State

Saquon Barkley all but had the Heisman trophy wrapped up after the 1st quarter against Ohio State. He returned the opening kickoff for a touchdown and followed it soon after with a 36 yard touchdown run. After that though, he was stuffed all game and finished with just 44 yards on 21 carries in which 9 of those 21 carries went for negative yards and he also only had 4 receptions for 23 yards. His 2.1 YPC looks bad especially since OSU came back and won the game, take away his lone touchdown run and that’s 20 carries for 8 yards even so he became a non-factor in a game that his team needed him the most.

Josh Adams on the other hand, closed the gap big time with his 202 yard performance against North Carolina State. The Notre Dame RB carried the ball 27 times with a 7.4 YPC and helped the Fighting Irish overwhelm the #14 ranked Wolfpack. He’s right there in discussion now for the Heisman and may very well take over as the favorite with Wake Forest, Miami, and Stanford left on their schedule.

Bryce Love’s best case for the Heisman might have came last Thursday, in a game that he didn’t play in. Without him, the Cardinal struggled against Oregon State and needed a costly turnover by the Beavers to pull out the win, 15-14. In his absence, Stanford looks like a middle of the road team, not the #21 ranked team that could win the Pac-12 North division.

And J.T. Barrett makes his way on the list after an incredible performance against Penn State. Barrett has been playing excellent ever since the Oklahoma loss, but it was against lesser competition so he really needed to show it against a top team before he could be considered a Heisman candidate. 33-39 for 328 yards and 4 TD’s against Penn State, he completed his final 16 passes, went 13-13 with 3 TD’s in the 4th quarter alone, which included the game winning TD pass with under 2 minutes left in the game.
With Barkley’s stumbling and Adams and Barrett on the rise, this Heisman trophy is wide open for the taking now.

#7 Penn State at #24 Michigan State - 12:00 PM

A meeting between two teams coming off very emotional losses last Saturday. Penn State traveled to Columbus in attempts to put their stamp down on Big Ten dominance, got up 35-20 in the 4th and then a big comeback by the Buckeyes happened which ended in a 39-38 Penn State loss. Michigan State was at Northwestern hoping to remain unbeaten in conference play, the game went into triple OT where MSU needed a touchdown to match Northwestern but an interception sealed the deal for the Wildcats and MSU suffered it's first conference loss. This game will be about how each team bounces back from that loss, could see both teams firing on all cylinders in a rage or could see them have the "hangover" effect, or one of each which will make for a lopsided game. Penn State just needs to stick with what they have been doing, which is getting the ball to Saquon Barkley while mixing in some read option QB runs and an occasional deep pass. Michigan State needs to find some offense, they only scored 14 points on 5 turnovers against Michigan, 10 points against Indiana and 17 points in regulation against Northwestern. Their defense is stellar but even the best defense will give up 14+ points to Penn State so they'll need to be able to answer those scores if they want a shot at this.

PREDICTION: Penn State 27-14

#21 Stanford at #25 Washington State - 3:30 PM

This game has a lot of variables going into it. The main variable is Stanford RB Bryce Love and if he's playing this week. Love sat out last week with an ankle injury and the Cardinal offense looked bad without him. The Heisman candidate is their main key to success on offense, so him being able to not only play but be effective will be huge for Stanford in getting a win here. The other variable is Washington State QB Luke Falk, who was benched last week due to his poor performance as the Cougars lost 58-37 to Arizona. Falk was once a Heisman candidate as well, but has been off ever since their loss to Cal and head coach Mike Leach saw enough last week to finally bench him. This can either motivate him to get back to playing like he was earlier in the season or could rattle his confidence and make him play just as bad, if not worse. This game really is a wait and see type game, a lot of factors will be going into this one to see which team will be able to get the win.

PREDICTION: Stanford 37-20

#4 Clemson at #20 North Carolina State - 3:30 PM

Clemson had a nice bounce back game against Georgia Tech, the Tigers defeated the Yellow Jackets in their first game back since suffering their first loss of the season. Their defensive line looked as good as ever, stifling the GT triple option running attack and controlling the tempo all game. They'll need that again this week as they go up against a NC State offense that's capable of putting a lot of points up on the board. The Wolfpack have a balanced offense, led by QB Ryan Finley and RB Nyheim Hines, they'll look to chip away at the Clemson defense with sustaining drives and tiring the defense out. Also, look for NC State DE Bradley Chubb to be all over QB Kelly Bryant, getting pressure and disrupting the Clemson QB will be a priority for one of the best defensive ends in the country. This is going to be a close game, they mimic each other in a lot of ways but Clemson may just have a little more talent here. The homefield advantage could even things out though, NC State will be building momentum off of that and looking to get a big win here in front of the home crowd.

PREDICTION: Clemson 27-21

#5 Oklahoma at #11 Oklahoma State - 4:00 PM

Get ready, because it is time for the Bedlam game. This matchup here is as even as it gets, both teams averaging close to the same amount of points, total yards, rushing yards and passing yards while on defense they are similar in points allowed and passing yards allowed (Oklahoma State has a slightly bigger edge in rushing defense.) The Sooners put together a complete game last week after struggling the previous 4 weeks and beat Texas Tech 49-27. If that teams shows up then it could be bad news for Oklahoma State, but the Sooners also struggled to beat Baylor, Texas and Kansas State while losing to Iowa State so it's a toss up on how the Sooners will play. Oklahoma State has also been up and down this season, they are capable of putting up a lot of points but also have some games where their offense just isn't clicking. 2 weeks ago against Texas for example, after beating Texas Tech 41-34 they were barely able to score on the Longhorns and squeaked out a 13-10 victory. So both teams are a bit of a wildcard here, we could have a shootout on our hands or see a defensive game while the offenses struggle. Both teams have the Big 12 championship and a playoff spot well within reach, the loser of this game though will all but be eliminated from playoff contention and will need help reaching the Big 12 championship game.

PREDICTION: Oklahoma 38-33

#13 Virginia Tech at #10 Miami - 8:00 PM

The battle for the top spot in the ACC Coastal division is right here. Miami has struggled to score points in their last 4 games, escaping with a win in every one of those 4 games. Their struggle started right around the time that RB Mark Walton went down with a season ending injury and the offense shifted to QB Malik Rosier. While Rosier throws for a lot of yards, his inaccuracy tends to kill drives, as he is over 50% completion percentage in just 2 of his last 4 games and is just 56% on the season. He'll need to be a lot more fluid and sustain drives if Miami wants to win this one, that may be a tough task though as the Hurricanes face a Virginia Tech team that only allows 11.5 points per game. If Virginia Tech can continue their dominance on defense and get their normal offensive output then that should be enough to take this win back home. The offense, led by QB Josh Jackson, loves spreading it out and playing fast so expect them to put up 24+ points in this game, leaving the onus on Miami to score with them. The Hokies have bounced back after losing to Clemson, they've won their last 3 and look to build off that here to take over the division lead.

PREDICTION: Virginia Tech 31-17

#19 LSU at #2 Alabama - 8:00 PM

Here's a game that always tends to be a big time defensive slugfest. Alabama may be playing with a chip on their shoulder now that the college football playoff rankings were revealed and they came in at #2 instead of their assumed spot at #1. The main thing for the Crimson Tide in this is to control the line of scrimmage and not turn the ball over, if they accomplish both of those things they should cruise to a victory. LSU needs to find some offense here, RB Derrius Guice will be keyed on so the Tigers will need QB Danny Etling to get the passing game going in order to open things up on offense. LSU's front 4, which includes projected top 10 pick Arden Key, will need to win the battle in the trenches and not let RB's Damien Harris and Bo Scarborough run all over them. If they can stop the run and put it in the arm of QB Jalen Hurts then they have a chance at forcing some turnovers and controlling time of possession.

PREDICTION: Alabama 27-6

Thursday, October 5, 2017

Spread Offense 10/5/17: College Football Week 6 Preview

By Pat Luhta, @PLuhta

Per usual, let's start off with my current top 10 ballot and a little week 5 recap.

WEEK 6 TOP TEN

10.Washington State (last week: NR)
9. Ohio State (last week: 10)
8. TCU (last week: 9)
7. Michigan (last week: 8)
6. Washington (last week: 7)
5. Oklahoma (last week: 4)
4. Georgia (last week: 5)
3. Penn State (last week: 3)
2. Alabama (last week: 2)
1. Clemson (last week: 1)

The big "upset" over the week was Washington State defeating USC. The Trojans have been flirting with disaster all year basically and their issues with turning the ball over finally caught up to them. Of course, this was the week that I thought they would put it all together and really show how talented they are, but they continued their sloppy play and they did so against a team that was talented enough to take advantage of their mishaps. Hats off to Washington State for capitalizing on the moment and making a big statement, they jump into my top 10 now after that win.

Aside from that, the only real movement other than USC exiting the top 10 and those behind them moving up a spot was a flip flop of Oklahoma and Georgia. Georgia put it on Tennessee 41-0 and if you watch them, you can tell how good their skill position players are along with how tough that defense is and right now I can't leave them out of the top 4. Nothing against Oklahoma and we still have a lot of games left to be played, but Georgia has been impressive with knocking teams around so far and if season ended today then I can't leave them out of the playoffs.

Clemson once again shows that they are the #1 team in the country, a solid beat down of Virginia Tech at Lane Stadium further proves that this team is as good, if not better, than they were last season.

HEISMAN WATCH

5. Bryce Love, RB, Stanford
4. Luke Falk, QB, Washington State
3. Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville
2. Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma
1. Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State

Saquon Barkley takes over the #1 spot as he once again took over the game for Penn State. The Iowa game last week seemed to be a turning point, where PSU is getting away from anything other than making sure Barkley touches the ball as often as possible and he started the game on Saturday against Indiana with a 98 yard punt return. His 56 yards rushing is a bit deceiving, he also had 51 yards receiving on 4 catches and the already mentioned 98 yard punt return, Penn State is finding ways to get him as many touches as possible and he is the reason why Penn State is currently undefeated and a playoff team.

Sam Darnold is officially out of the top 5 after yet another rough outing. USC had all the capability in the world to defeat Washington State but Darnold's poor QB play, topped off with a fumble to end the game, lost them the game. Replacing him is Stanford RB Bryce Love, who has been tearing it up this season and just had himself a 301 yard 3 TD game against Arizona State last Saturday. On the season, he's already over 1,000 yards rushing and the worst game he's had has been a 160 rushing yard performance.

WEEK 6 PREVIEW

#17 Louisville at #24 NC State - Thursday 8:00 PM

NC State started the season with some hype as the "sleeper" pick in the ACC, and that hype train was quickly derailed in week 1 after a 35-28 loss to South Carolina. Since then though, the Wolfpack have regrouped nicely and have won their last 4 games. With some hype around them coming back, it is now their chance to validate themselves as they welcome a tested and proven Louisville team. They'll need QB Ryan Finley to continue his mistake free play, having yet to throw an interception on the season, and will need to find a way to slow down Louisville's QB, Lamar Jackson. Jackson is the defending Heisman trophy winner and absolutely scorched the Wolfpack last season, putting up 4 first half touchdowns en route to a 54-13 win. NC State must find an answer for him, they'll need to slow him down big time and also be able to put up points on offense in order to pull the upset off.

PREDICTION: Louisville 48-24

#13 Miami at Florida State - 3:30 PM

This may not seem like a big game, but rivalry games are so tricky to predict that this may end up being a lot better than some people may think. Florida State has won the last 7 games against rival Miami, but that streak is very much in doubt. The Seminoles have been struggling ever since QB Deandre Francois went down with a season ending injury, losing to NC State then escaping with a win against Wake Forest. Miami comes in with a 3-0 record, as it seems Head Coach Mark Richt has this team thinking of a possible ACC Championship this season. Miami hopes to have starting RB Mark Walton healthy and available for this game, and this could really help out FSU if he is either unable to play or plays but is hampered by his ankle injury. The Hurricanes definitely have playmakers elsewhere though with the passing game of QB Malik Rosier and they are also getting back WR Ahmond Richard for this game as well. Florida State will need star safety Derwin James to be everywhere out there and on offense, the Seminoles have to get the running game going. Last year's contest came down to a blocked extra point, expect anything when these rivals meet up.

PREDICTION: Miami 23-20

#23 West Virginia at #8 TCU - 3:30 PM

The lone Saturday game of the week that features 2 ranked teams here, TCU looks to remain perfect as they host the West Virginia Mountaineers. TCU is coming off a huge win at Oklahoma State two weeks ago and after a bye week last weekend, looks to continue their momentum here. This game will be about the offenses, West Virginia has the 2nd ranked offense in the entire country and QB Will Grier and RB Justin Crawford look to balance it out and do what Oklahoma State was unable to, put up the necessary points against the Big 12's 2nd best defense. TCU will also rely on their QB-RB combo, with QB Kenny Hill and RB Darius Anderson leading the way for the Horned Frogs offense. If they play like they did against Oklahoma State then this will be extremely tough for West Virginia to pull off the upset. This game should have plenty of offense and do not be surprised if we see another road upset in the Big 12 here.

PREDICTION: West Virginia 44-37

Michigan State at #7 Michigan - 7:30 PM

Much like the Miami-Florida State game, this is also a rivalry which on paper seems to be a lopsided game. Michigan State is 3-1 this season, totaling their wins from a horrific 2016 season. QB Brian Lewerke seems to have a lot of upside and they'll need him to come up big against a tough Michigan defense in order to bring the Paul Bunyon Trophy back to East Lansing. The biggest issue for MSU this season has been their running game, Lewerke is also the leading rusher on the team even though he only has 248 yards total in 4 games and RB LJ Scott is averaging under 4 yards a carry. It won't get any easier to establish a run game for MSU, as they'll face a Michigan defense that's only allowing 69.3 yards a game(and that includes a rush heavy triple option Air Force team.) Michigan will be without QB Wilton Speight as John O'Korn will get the start, and he'll basically be asked to just manage the game and make some plays when available while the run game and defense will be tasked to win the game. For the first time ever, this rivalry will be played under the lights, and is the primetime game of the week.

PREDICTION: Michigan 27-13

Wednesday, December 28, 2016

TV Tonight 12.28

By Raven Williams, @nevaRWilliams

NBA
Clippers @ Pelicans (NBA TV, 8pm)
Raptors @ Warriors (NBA TV, 10:30pm)

NHL
Flyers @ Blues (NBC Sports, 8pm)

COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Russell Athletic Bowl: West Virginia vs Miami (ESPN, 5:30pm)
Foster Farms Bowl: Indiana vs. Utah (FOX, 8:30pm)
Advocare V100 Texas Bowl: Texas A&M vs. Kansas State (ESPN, 9pm)

COLLEGE BASKETBALL
Wake Forest @ Florida State (ESPN 2, 5pm)
Nebraska @ Indians (Big Ten, 6:30pm)
DePaul @ Villanova (FOX Sports 1, 6:30pm)
Virginia @ Louisville (ESPN 2, 7pm)
Monmouth @ North Carolina (ESPNU, 7pm)
Georgetown @ Marquette (FOX Sports 1, 8:30pm)
UCLA @ Oregon (ESPN 2, 9pm)
Cincinnati @ Temple (ESPNU, 9pm)

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Law & Order: Special Victims Unit (NBC, 8pm)
The Goldbergs (ABC, 8pm)
Undercover Boss (CBS, 8pm)
Lucha Underground (El Rey, 8pm)
Speechless (ABC, 8:30pm)

Law & Order: Special Victims Unit (NBC, 9pm)
Modern Family (ABC, 9pm)
MacGyver (CBS, 9pm)
Vikings (History, 9pm)
Total Divas (E!, 9pm)
Blackish (ABC, 9:30pm)

Chicago P.D. (NBC, 10pm)
Match Game (ABC, 10pm)
Criminal Minds (CBS, 10pm)

Friday, December 9, 2016

TV Weekend 12.9 - 12.10

By Raven Williams, @nevaRWilliams

Caught On Camera with Nick Cannon (FRI, NBC, 8pm)
Last Man Standing (FRI, ABC, 8pm)
Hell's Kitchen (FRI, FOX, 8pm)
MacGyver (FRI, CBS, 8pm)
The Vampire Diaries (FRI, The CW, 8pm)
New Japan Pro Wrestling (FRI, AXS TV, 8pm)
Dr. Ken (FRI, ABC, 8:30pm)

Madonna: Rebel Heart Tour (FRI, Showtime, 9pm)
Dateline NBC (FRI, NBC, 9pm)
Shark Tank (FRI, ABC, 9pm)
The Exorcist (FRI, FOX, 9pm)
Hawaii Five-0 (FRI, CBS, 9pm)
Crazy Ex-Girlfriend (FRI, The CW, 8pm)
Z Nation (FRI, Syfy, 9pm)

Blue Bloods (FRI, CBS, 10pm)
Van Helsing, SEASON FINALE (FRI, Syfy, 10pm)
--

Dr. Seuss' How The Grinch Stole Christmas (SAT, TBS, 7:30pm)
It's A Wonderful Life (SAT, USA, 8pm)
Mary Poppins (SAT, ABC, 8pm)
Rudolph The Red-Nosed Reindeer (SAT, CBS, 8pm)
Frosty The Snowman (SAT, CBS, 9pm)
Frosty Returns (SAT, CBS, 9:30pm)
Saturday Night Live; John Cena, Maren Morris (SAT, NBC, 11:30pm)

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30 For 30
"Catholics vs. Convicts": The back story of the infamous 1988 Notre Dame & Miami game (SAT, ESPN, 9pm)

NBA
Heat @ Cavaliers (FRI, FOX Sports Ohio, 7:30pm)
Rockets @ Thunder (FRI, ESPN, 8pm)
Suns @ Lakers (FRI, ESPN, 10:30pm)

Hornets @ Cavaliers (SAT, FOX Sports Ohio, 7:30pm)
Heat @ Bulls (SAT, NBA TV, 8pm)

COLLEGE BASKETBALL
Longwood @ Creighton (FRI, FOX Sports 1, 7:30pm)
Georgia Southern @ Minnesota (FRI, Big Ten, 9pm)

Temple @ DePaul (SAT, ESPNU, 11:30am)
Notre Dame vs. Villanova (SAT, CBS, 12pm)
Arizona @ Missouri (SAT, ESPN 2, 12pm)
Saint Peter's @ Maryland (SAT, Big Ten, 12pm)
Massachusetts @ Providence (SAT, FOX Sports 1, 12pm)
Rhode Island @ Houston (SAT, ESPNU, 1:30pm)

La Salle vs. Georgetown (SAT, ESPN 2, 2pm)
Wisconsin @ Marquette (SAT, FOX Sports 1, 2pm)
Tennessee Tech @ Michigan State (SAT, Big Ten, 2pm)
Penn State vs. Pittsburgh (SAT, CBS SportsNet, 2:30pm)
Nebraska @ Kansas (SAT, ESPN, 3:15pm)
Wichita State vs. Oklahoma (SAT, ESPN 2, 4pm)
Houston Baptist @ Indiana (SAT, Big Ten, 4pm)
Cincinnati @ Butler (SAT, FOX Sports 1, 4:30pm)

Oklahoma State @ Tulsa (SAT, CBS SportsNet, 5pm)
Duke @ UNLV (SAT, ESPN, 5:15pm)
Utah @ Xavier (SAT, FOX, 5:30pm)
Connecticut @ Ohio State (SAT, Big Ten, 6pm)
Long Beach State @ Texas (SAT, ESPN 2, 6pm)
Michigan @ UCLA (SAT, ESPN 2, 8pm)
Colorado @ BYU (SAT, ESPN 2, 10pm)

COLLEGE FOOTBALL
NCAA FCS, Quarterfinal: Sam Houston State @ James Madison (FRI, ESPN 2, 7pm)

Navy vs. Army (SAT, CBS, 3pm)

2016 Heisman Trophy Presentation (SAT, ESPN, 8pm)

NFL
Top 10: Interceptions (FRI, NFL Network, 8pm)
A Football Life: Charles Woodson (FRI, NFL Network, 9pm)

NHL
Blue Jackets @ Red Wings (FRI, FOX Sports Cincinnati, 7:30pm)
Rangers @ Blackhawks (FRI, NHL, 8:30pm)

Maple Leafs @ Bruins (SAT, NHL, 7pm)
Islanders @ Blue Jackets (SAT, FOX Sports Cincinnati, 7:30pm)

GOLF
Franklin Templeton Shootout, Final Round (SAT, FOX, 1pm)
PNC Father/Son Challenge, First Day (SAT, NBC, 4pm)

MMA & BOXING
UFC Prefight Show (SAT, FOX Sports 1, 6:30pm)
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis - Prelims (SAT, FOX Sports 1, 8pm)
BOXING: Terrence Crawford vs. John Molina Jr. (SAT, HBO, 9:35pm)
BOXING: Jesus Andres Cuellar vs. Abner Mares (SAT, Showtime, 10pm)

SOCCER
English Premier League: Leicester City FC vs. Manchester City FC (SAT, NBC, 12:30pm)
MLS: Seattle Sounders FC @ Toronto FC (SAT, FOX, 8pm)

Thursday, October 6, 2016

Spread Offense, College Football Week 6: The Bridge Episode

By Pat Luhta, @PLuhta

Now that was a fun last Saturday, wasn't it? Last second dramatic wins with multiple lead changes in the final minute in the Tennessee-Georgia and North Carolina-Florida State game, 2 Big Ten heavyweights in Michigan and Wisconsin just pulverizing each other in a great defensive game, and did Louisville and Clemson put on a show or what? Last Saturday delivered big time overall, those types of exhilarating games are what makes this sport so great.

Each season of a TV series has something called a bridge episode. TV series typically start fast to hook you in followed by an episode or two that is more about building characters and storylines by being dialogue heavy while taking away the majority of action. That episode's purpose is to bridge the beginning of the season to the finale, hence the "bridge episode" name. This is what week 6 seems to be, with only 4 games involving 2 ranked teams it seems as though this will be less about the action on the field and more about what's to follow based off of this week. We are starting to get into conference play and we have some rivalry games this week so it will still hold everyone's attention, but this will be a natural come down after week 5's fantastic games and finishes.

SATURDAY OCT 8TH

Noon kickoffs are headlined by Texas and #20 Oklahoma playing in their annual Red River Rivalry game. Oklahoma came in to last year's game at a perfect 5-o and ranked #10 in the country while Texas was a disappointing 1-4 at the time. They always say to throw the records out in a rivalry game though and last year was a perfect example, as the Longhorns handed Oklahoma their only regular season loss by a score of 24-17. This year, both teams are in need of a big win as Oklahoma just evened their record out to 2-2 after outlasting TCU 52-46 last weekend, and a promising start to the season for Texas has turned sour after 2 straight losses. Texas coach Charlie Strong will be calling defensive plays now after the Longhorns gave up 49 points to Oklahoma State, some reports are saying that this is a make or break game for him as far as determining his future as coach of the team.

They'll need to slow down an Oklahoma offense that finally got rolling last weekend and looked like the playoff contender that they were expected to be. Oklahoma's main concern will be the 2 QB system that Texas runs, last week they had a ton of problems with stopping TCU and Texas is the type of team that could put up some points if they find a weakness. The luster may be off this rivalry game a bit since both teams are just 2-2, but there's a lot at stake for these two teams and always expect some great moments when bragging rights are on the line.

We also have LSU at #18 Florida at noon. The post Les Miles era started out big for LSU as they rolled Missouri 42-7. Florida gets their starting QB back, Luke Del Rio, as they hope that provides a spark on the offense that they were missing last weekend against Vanderbilt. They still managed to win but the offense was stagnant overall and they coasted to a 13-6 victory. Can a rejuvenated LSU team go on the road and knock off a healthy Florida team on the road? It's a pretty big task for interim head coach Ed Orgeron.

The 3:30 games give us 2 of the 4 games involving 2 ranked teams. In ACC action, we have the #25 Virginia Tech Hokies going on the road to face the #17 North Carolina Tar Heels. The Hokies have moved on from "Beamer ball" and are now running a full time spread offense under 1st year head coach Justin Fuente. The switch is paying off right now, as they are averaging 40 points per game and QB Jerod Evans has found himself on some Heisman sleeper lists. After suffering their lone loss on the season (45-24 to Tennessee), the Hokies have shut out Boston College 49-0 and rolled East Carolina 54-17. North Carolina has also been putting up some impressive numbers on offense, along with pulling out games in crunch time. In back to back weeks, the Tar Heels outscored Pitt 14-3 in the 4th quarter to win 37-36 then had a last second drive against Florida State culminating in a 54 yard game winning field goal for the 37-35 win. Bud Foster's Virginia Tech defense may be the key factor in this, he's one of the best at game planning and disguising blitzes in order to rattle the opposing teams' QB, if he can dial up a game plan to get Mentor, Ohio's own Mitch Trubisky off his game then that will be the deciding factor. It will be close though and North Carolina thrives in close games, expect this game to play out in the final minutes.

We also have the #9 Tennessee Volunteers at the #8 Texas A&M Aggies. Tennessee seems to be living a charmed life, they start slow and sloppy and as it looks like they are going to lose, they seem to do just enough to get the win. OT win against Appalachian State, uninspired win against Ohio, 21 point comeback against Florida and then last week, a last second Hail Mary win over Georgia. This will be their toughest task to date, Texas A&M looks very good and Kyle Field provides a big home field advantage. The Aggies use a balanced attack to put up nearly 40 points and 520 yards per game, with QB Trevor Knight leading the charge for them. Their defense also seems legit this season, as 24 points is the most that they have given up in a game. If they hold Tennessee to that then they have a very good chance of winning this game. This game will tell us a lot about both teams, starting with how serious a contender each team is going forward.

The 7 pm start time takes us to Fayetteville where the #16 Arkansas Razorbacks host the #1 Alabama Crimson Tide. Arkansas looks for a statement win right here to show that they aren't a middle of the road type team. QB Austin Allen is the type of QB that has given Alabama's defense problems in the past and the Razorbacks are going to need him to play at his peak in order to win this game. Arkansas will also look to their 2 RB's, Rawleigh Williams and Devwah Whaley, to provide a big punch and balance out the attack so the Crimson Tide won't have the benefit of keying on Allen. If Arkansas does become one dimensional then that plays right into Alabama's hands, their defense thrives on getting after the QB to force sacks and turnovers. The Crimson Tide offense will look for the same success as Texas A&M had against Arkansas, which is the big play.

The Razorbacks, while a good defensive team overall, are susceptible to giving up big plays and that was their Achilles heel in their 45-24 loss to the Aggies. The Tide does have the weapons, both in their running and passing game, to score quickly and Arkansas has got to do a better job of containment if they want to stay in this game. This is Alabama's 1st of 4 straight big games with Tennessee on deck, Texas A&M in the hole and LSU awaiting after a bye week. Arkansas needs this one badly if they want any shot of earning the SEC West title.

Then our 8pm primetime matchup pits 2 in-state rivals against each other, with the #23 Florida State Seminoles facing off against the #10 Miami Hurricanes. At the beginning of the season, not many people would have believed that FSU would be the team with 2 losses while Miami is undefeated. The Seminoles rebounded against South Florida after the beating they took against Louisville, only to lose on a last second field goal last week to North Carolina. FSU certainly has the talent on offense, starting with RB Dalvin Cook, but miscues on defense have haunted them this season. Mark Richt has revitalized the Miami program already in his 1st season as head coach, and people are starting to buy into this team. This will be their chance to really prove it though as they have yet to play a ranked team and their opponents have a combined 7-13 record.

Their offense, led by QB Brad Kaaya and RB Mark Walton, have been lighting up the scoreboard while their defense has been one of the stingiest in the country. If they can take advantage of FSU's problems on defense and keep their offense rolling then this could be a long night for the Seminoles. We will see just how good they are though in this game, whether they are a contender in the ACC or fool's gold that put up numbers due to softer competition. Rivalry games always bring an added amount of intrigue and with two teams ranked in the top 25 and with the history they have for playing close, memorable games, then this is a perfect game for that 8pm time slot.