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Spread Offense 11/17/17: College Football Playoff Breakdown

By Pat Luhta, @PLuhta


So I'm here to switch up things a bit in my weekly college football article. Due to lack of marquee games this week, I'll be breaking down the college football playoff picture instead of doing a week 12 preview. But before I get to that, here's MY current top 10 ballot.


WEEK 12 TOP TEN

10. USC (last week: NR)
9. Notre Dame (last week: 4)
8. Ohio State (last week: NR)
7. Wisconsin (last week: 9)
6. Georgia (last week: 2)
5. Auburn (last week: 8)
4. Oklahoma (last week: 5)
3. Clemson (last week: 3)
2. Miami (last week: 6)
1. Alabama (last week: 1)


PLAYOFF PICTURE BREAKDOWN

There is currently only one team that has locked in a playoff spot, the Alabama Crimson Tide(barring a crazy upset by Mercer this weekend.) Alabama plays Auburn to end their regular season, if they win then they go on to the SEC championship game to face Georgia. If they lose, then Auburn goes to the SEC championship game. So there’s 3 scenarios for the Crimson Tide, they either win out, beat Auburn and lose to Georgia in SEC title game, or lose to Auburn and not qualify for the SEC title game. All 3 situations give Alabama a max of 1 loss, and they aren’t dropping them from #1 to out of playoffs over a loss to either Auburn or Georgia.
So Alabama is in, so where does that leave us as far as the other 3 playoff spots are concerned?

There are a total of 6 teams that currently control their own destiny, meaning if they win out then they are in. Miami, Clemson, Oklahoma, Wisconsin, Auburn and Georgia are the 6 teams vying for 3 remaining playoff spots, if they win out then they punch their ticket but if they lose than they are all but out of it, and a few teams may end up playing each other in what could amount to elimination games. Miami vs Clemson is set for the ACC title game, and there’s a possibility that Auburn vs. Georgia could meet in the SEC title game, so championship weekend could shape up to be a playoff weekend in itself.

Miami is the team that potentially has a “get out of losing a game” free card, but only if they lose to Clemson in the ACC title game. Losing to Virginia or Pitt could take destiny out of their hands, losing to either of those teams then following it up with a loss to Clemson and they are eliminated. The committee was skeptical of the Hurricanes up until the past 2 weeks, and after handily beating Virginia Tech and Notre Dame they have won their respect so Miami losing a game would not be as damaging as the other teams that control their destiny.

Clemson on the other hand, has to win out or else they are at the mercy of how other teams’ fare . They face the Citadel(haha ok then), at South Carolina in the Palmetto State rivalry and then Miami in the ACC title game, and while Tigers fans probably don’t want to hear this, Clemson’s only shot at losing a game and still making the playoffs is a loss to South Carolina. If they lose to the Citadel then they fall too far to make up the ground and if they lose to Miami in the ACC title game then the committee won’t be selecting a 2 loss team that didn’t win their conference. So Clemson needs to win out to ensure their spot, but if they lose to South Carolina then beat Miami to become ACC champs, then they still have a shot.

Georgia is somewhat in the same boat as Clemson is, but they need to tread very carefully these next two games. After their 40-17 loss to Auburn, the committee dropped them from #1 all the way to #7, so needless to say there’s now some skepticism. Another loss likely takes them out of the playoff race, but winning the SEC title might be enough to salvage their chances and get a playoff spot. The SEC championship is a must though, if Georgia beats both Kentucky and Georgia Tech but then loses to either Alabama or Auburn in the SEC title game, then they are out.

The other 3, Oklahoma, Wisconsin and Auburn, are all in a win out or be out situation.
Auburn has a shot to be the first ever 2 loss team to make the playoff. If they beat Alabama then go to the SEC championship game and beat Georgia(again) then there's no way that the committee can leave them out despite the 2 losses on their schedule. But at the same time, one loss the rest of the way and they are done so they would need to run the table and beat UL-Monroe, Alabama and then Georgia in order to get in.

Oklahoma has to run the table, because the committee has tipped their hands at how they feel about the Big 12. Aside from Oklahoma, only TCU and Oklahoma State remain in the top 25 so the Big 12 is not well represented at all, which puts Oklahoma in a must win situation despite only having 1 loss currently. Fortunately, Oklahoma has 2 very winnable games left in regular season with Kansas and West Virginia on their schedule and will likely be facing either TCU or Oklahoma State in the Big 12 championship game, 2 teams that they've already beaten. The opportunity is right there for them to take advantage of, but they have to take care of business or no playoffs for them.

As for Wisconsin, they are currently undefeated but sitting outside the top 4 playoff rankings. Their lack of schedule strength is what is holding them back, a 7-3 Northwestern team is their best win on the season. If they lose just 1 game then do not expect the committee to show mercy on them, they'll be dropped far enough that they won't be able to climb back up in time. Only possible chance for them to sustain a loss and make the playoffs would be for them to lose to Michigan but then beat Minnesota and win the Big Ten championship against Ohio State or Penn State, but even then it's a long shot.

This is the situation with Wisconsin and why I haven't given them much credit and still have them at #7 in my top 10 ballot, it's not so much their lack of schedule strength as it is their lack of impressive wins. I don't fault Wisconsin for their schedule for the most part, they can only control their non-conference schedule so the fact that the Big Ten schedule rotation got them to avoid Ohio State, Penn State and Michigan State while getting Michigan at home along with the B1G West being down right now is not on Wisconsin. The problem that I have with Wisconsin is that when they play these bad teams, they aren't really showing that dominance the other teams show when they play bad teams. 33-24 to Northwestern, 38-17 to Nebraska, 17-9 to Purdue, 38-13 to Maryland and 24-10 to Illinois doesn't jump out as a team that can take on an Alabama or Clemson and put up a fight for the national title. Their opportunity to show it is coming though, if they can run the table and end up 13-0 in a power 5 conference then there's no chance of them being left out.

Then there are a few teams that are still alive in the playoff hunt, but need to win out plus get some help in order to make the final 4. Ohio State, Notre Dame, Penn State and USC are all still in the running, but destiny is out of their hands.

Notre Dame might end up being the biggest long shot of the 4 to make the playoffs simply because they do not have a conference championship game. They play Navy this week and Stanford in the regular season finale, then they have to sit back and wait while all other playoff contending teams play the following weekend. The Fighting Irish need to hope that it goes chalk with Alabama, Miami and Oklahoma winning out, Wisconsin to lose a game and not win the Big Ten, and the B1G East winner to lose a regular season game but beat Wisconsin. That’s basically what Notre Dame is up against, so that loss to Miami last Saturday could very well have been a playoff eliminator.

Remember when I said that Notre Dame might be the biggest long shot? Well Penn State just said “hold my beer” on that statement. The Nittany Lions need to win out, but due to the Big Ten tiebreakers, they also need Ohio State to lose both of their games and Michigan State to lose at least 1 of their remaining 2 games. The Problem? Ohio State is hosting Illinois, who is currently a 41 point underdog to the Buckeyes, and Michigan State hosts Maryland and then goes to Rutgers. In that scenario, then Penn State would have 2 conference losses while OSU and MSU would end up with 3, and if then they would either have the tiebreaker with Michigan if the Wolverines beat both Wisconsin and OSU or if Michigan loses to Wisconsin then they would sit alone top the B1G East division. Even after all of that, they would need some chips to fall their way with teams that control their destiny losing. It all starts this weekend though, Penn State needs to be rooting for Illinois big time, because if the 41 point underdog can somehow pull this game off then doors begin to open, but if they lose to Ohio State then that door is slammed shut.

USC is already in their conference championship game, so all they can do is win out by beating UCLA then whoever they face in the Pac-12 title game. The best case scenario is for them to face Washington State, who is currently in a 3 way tie in the North division, so they can avenge one of their 2 losses on the season and make a case to the committee that to not look at the 3 point loss on the road but rather a neutral site win is more indicative of USC. From there they’ll just have to wait it out, hope for some upsets and see how it plays out. They’ll really want Ohio State and Auburn to lose, those 2 schools are ranked the highest of all 2 loss teams so USC will need them to lose in order to jump them in the rankings(Penn State is also ranked higher but a conference championship for USC will leapfrog them over PSU). Right now, all USC can do is win out and use their Pac-12 title as a bargaining chip incase some chaos were to happen.

As for the Ohio State Buckeyes, well let's just say that Ohio State fans are going to be required to do some things that will make them feel a little disgusted about. This is going to be tough for me to write since I am a Buckeyes fan but...here goes...Ohio State needs to be HUGE Alabama Crimson Tide fans the rest of the way. I know, I know, "yuck!" comes to mind here but OSU cannot afford to have 2 teams from the SEC make it so they need Alabama to first knock out Auburn in week 13 then knock out Georgia in the SEC title game. Aside from wanting Alabama to win out, and fortunately this isn't a guaranteed necessity, OSU may also want to pull for Michigan this Saturday against Wisconsin. I'm almost positive that 1 loss eliminates Wisconsin(meaning OSU beating an undefeated Wisconsin team in B1G title game knocks them out), but Wisconsin losing once before the title game and OSU handing them their 2nd loss will remove all doubt. Miami losing once before the ACC title game means that automatically either the Hurricanes or Clemson will suffer the 2nd loss, but if they are still undefeated heading into the ACC title game then they need to beat Clemson. If that happens then Alabama, Miami(or Clemson/Miami winner if Miami loses before ACC title game), Oklahoma and Ohio State are the 4 teams, that's what the Buckeyes need to get in. So Ohio State needs to run the table and win the Big Ten, and root for Alabama(big time), Michigan(possibly) and either Clemson or Miami to be a 2 loss non conference champ along the way.

So there you have it, a complete breakdown of what teams need in order to make the playoffs. The playoff picture is becoming clear, but knowing college football means knowing to expect chaos these next few weeks.

Spread Offense 11/10/17: College Football Week 11 Preview

By Pat Luhta, @PLuhta


WEEK 11 TOP TEN

10. Washington (last week: NR)
9. Wisconsin (last week: 10)
8. Auburn (last week: NR)
7. TCU (last week: NR)
6. Miami (last week 7)
5. Oklahoma (last week: 6)
4. Notre Dame (last week: 5)
3. Clemson (last week: 4)
2. Georgia (last week: 2)
1. Alabama (last week:1)

Week 10 scrambled some more things around as 3 top 10 teams on my ballot lost. The most shocking being the Ohio State Buckeyes losing to Iowa, 55-24. Losing on the road in conference play happens, but for a team that was in the playoff hunt to lose by 31 to a 5-3 team is unacceptable. OSU still controls their own destiny to the Big Ten championship, but kiss all playoff hopes goodbye after that performance.

Another team that is now out of the playoff race is fellow Big Ten team, Penn State. After blowing a 35-20 4th quarter lead against Ohio State in week 9, the Nittany Lions went to Michigan State looking for a bounce back game. After a 4 hour thunderstorm delay, the game resumed and instead of getting a bounce back game, they got bounced out of playoff contention on a last second field goal to lose 27-24.

Bedlam was just that, as the Oklahoma Sooners knocked off their rival Oklahoma State Cowboys, 62-52. QB Baker Mayfield put up 598 passing yards and 5 touchdowns in this game, and Oklahoma is still alive in the playoff hunt while Oklahoma State is out.

Miami needed a "prove it" game as their undefeated record wasn't being taken seriously due to the competition they've beaten. They got that last Saturday against Virginia Tech and they passed it with flying colors, knocking off the Hokies 28-10. Both the offense and defense answered the call as they moved the ball on one of the toughest defenses in the country while shutting down one of the better offenses in the country. They are legit contenders and there should be no more questions on how good this team is.

Alabama and Clemson both notched victories over ranked teams, and I've been saying that I wouldn't move Wisconsin from the 10 spot but they do move up to #9 now as a 1 loss Washington, that might have actually played a worse schedule than Wisconsin, sits at 10.


HEISMAN WATCH

5. Khalil Tate, QB, Arizona
4. Bryce Love, RB, Stanford
3. Josh Adams, RB, Notre Dame
2. Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State
1. Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma

We have a new #1 on the Heisman watch. Baker Mayfield torched the Oklahoma State Cowboys, throwing for 598 yards with 5 touchdowns and should now be the favorite to win the Heisman. What also helped Mayfield take over the #1 spot is that RB Saquon Barkley has had 2 underwhelming performances in games in which the Nittany Lions lost. The Heisman is all about being the best player in the biggest moments and Baker Mayfield has been huge for the Sooners when it matters the most while Barkley has not come through when Penn State needs him the most.

The "J.T. Barrett is a Heisman finalist" hype lasted a whole week, replacing him on the list is Arizona QB Khalil Tate. Tate doesn't throw the ball much but is a huge threat in the running game, with over 146 yard rushing in 5 straight games including a 230 and 327 yard game.

Tate might be a little late to make a charge, but any of the top 4 could end up winning the Heisman trophy.


#12 Michigan State at #13 Ohio State - 12:00 PM

Two weeks ago, Michigan State lost a triple OT game against Northwestern that could have started a downward trend for the Spartans with Penn State and Ohio State next on the schedule. There's no doubting this teams mental toughness now though, as they rose up last Saturday and beat Penn State 27-24 to put themselves in position to win the Big Ten East. QB Brian Lewerke has thrown for 400 yards in each of the last 2 games, and could easily make it 3 against Ohio State's secondary. After a big win against Penn State that brought OSU back into the playoff race, the Buckeyes are back to the drawing board after a 55-24 loss to Iowa. The OSU secondary needs to improve if they want to win this game and the defense overall needs to step up. On offense, the Buckeyes will need to keep running the ball while opening up the downfield passing game, both things that they failed to do while trying to come back against Iowa. Ohio State has faced Michigan State 5 times under head coach Urban Meyer, with a total score of 121-120 in favor of OSU so expect a closely fought game that will come down to the 4th quarter.

PREDICTION: Ohio State 28-27


#1 Georgia at #10 Auburn - 3:30 PM

Fans are starting to dream of a SEC championship that features 2 undefeated teams, and the team that is capable of crushing those dreams are the Auburn Tigers. Auburn faces Georgia this week and hosts Alabama in week 13, so while we are this close from getting a battle of 12-0 teams playing for the SEC, Auburn has 2 chances to eliminate the possibility. The Tigers are led by QB Jarrett Stidham and RB Kerryon Johnson, who will be the key players in this game if they are to win this one. Auburn has scored over 40 points in 6 of their 7 wins but only 6 points and 23 points in their 2 losses, so the Tigers will need to move the ball and put up points against a tough Georgia team here. Georgia has possibly the best defensive line in the country with a good secondary to complement them, and their offense is fully capable of scoring on any team in the country, led by RB’s Nick Chubb and Sony Michel. QB Jake Fromm is the wildcard, a true freshman going into an environment like this may be too big of a moment for him. As long as he relies on his RB's though while making the necessary throws, all should be good for the young QB.

PREDICTION: Georgia 31-23


#2 Alabama at #16 Mississippi State - 7:00 PM

Alabama has this game and the Iron bowl against Auburn as the hurdles left before reaching the SEC Championship game. They come in with a run first offense, which features RB's Damien Harris and Bo Scarborough along with QB Jalen Hurts, and an efficient yet conservative passing game. Their main ingredient of success though is their defense, which shouldn't surprise anyone. The Crimson Tide only average 9.8 points allowed per game and if they can continue that success against Mississippi State then they will clear this hurdle. MSU will turn to QB Nick Fitzgerald and ask him to do it all on offense and find a crack in that Alabama defense. Fitzgerald is not only the QB but also leads the team in rushing, him finding success in both will be paramount for this team to have a chance. Their defense will need to force some turnovers and put their offense in good field position, but this one will be about the Bulldogs offense and if they can overcome Alabama's defense.

PREDICTION: Alabama 28-6


#6 TCU at #5 Oklahoma - 8:00 PM

This game has "explosive" written all over it. Oklahoma is led by QB Baker Mayfield, who has been putting up huge numbers en route to a possible Heisman trophy. The Sooners have one of the best offenses in the country and it's nearly impossible to win a shootout against them. Fortunately for TCU QB Kenny Hill and the Horned Frogs offense, they may not have to. TCU's clear advantage in this game is their defense, only giving up 13.5 points per game. This is what it will all come down to, if TCU can contain Oklahoma's offense and give their own offense a chance to score enough points to win the game or if Oklahoma can continue their offensive dominance and put too many points up for TCU to contend with. Both teams coming in 8-1 and 5-1 in conference with the winner all but wrapping up a trip to the Big 12 championship game, the stakes are very high here.

PREDICTION: Oklahoma 41-26


#3 Notre Dame at #7 Miami - 8:00 PM

The classic "Catholics vs Convicts" match up reignited here on Saturday night. Notre Dame comes to Miami being just 2 points away from being undefeated, while host Miami is still undefeated and looking to keep it that way. The big thing to keep an eye on here is Notre Dame RB Josh Adams, who left last week's game under vague circumstances. If he is rested up and at his best then it will be a tough night for the Hurricanes, who have struggled stopping the run this season, but if he suffers from fatigue again and has to be removed from the game then QB Brandon Wimbush will have to pick up the slack for the Fighting Irish offense. Miami looked good against Virginia Tech last week, but again their offense will be in the hands of shaky QB Malik Rosier, who will need to keep drives alive and make big plays when available just like they did last week. This should be another great game to watch as both teams have playoff aspirations.

PREDICTION: Notre Dame 27-24


Other games to watch: #9 Washington at Stanford, #15 Oklahoma State at #21 Iowa State, #20 Iowa at #8 Wisconsin

Spread Offense 10/27/17: College Football Week 9 Preview

By Pat Luhta, @PLuhta


WEEK 9 TOP TEN

10. Wisconsin (last week: 10)
9. Oklahoma (last week: 8)
8. Notre Dame (last week: 9)
7. Clemson (last week: 7)
6. Miami (last week: 6)
5. Ohio State (last week: 5)
4. TCU (last week: 4)
3. Georgia (last week: 3)
2. Penn State (last week: 2)
1. Alabama (last week: 1)

After a week in which we saw 7 teams in the top 25 lose to unranked teams, including 4 teams in the top 10, this past Saturday went chalk. The only movement in my top 25 is a flip flop of Notre Dame and Oklahoma after the Fighting Irish put on a dominating performance against USC while Oklahoma needed a last minute touchdown to beat Kansas State.

The rest did what they were supposed to do and took care of business. Penn State extracted revenge on Michigan after their 49-10 loss to the Wolverines last season to the tune of 42-13. Alabama remained dominant while once again letting Tennessee know just how far away they are to becoming competitive rivals again. TCU did what every team does to Kansas and Miami held off Syracuse, who was looking for their 2nd straight big upset.


HEISMAN WATCH

5. Josh Adams, RB, Notre Dame
4. Jonathan Taylor, RB, Wisconsin
3. Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma
2. Bryce Love, RB, Stanford
1. Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State

Much like my top 10 ballot, there's not much change to this list. The only thing different from last week is that reigning Heisman winner Lamar Jackson has fallen out of the top 5 and has been replaced by RB Josh Adams. The Notre Dame RB ran all over USC last Saturday, gaining 191 yards on the ground with 3 TD's. On the season, Adams has 967 yards on only 105 carries(9.2 YPC) with 8 touchdowns.

1-4 holds steady, as Saquon Barkley furthered himself as the clear cut favorite after an 108 yard, 2 touchdown game against Michigan.


WEEK 9 PREVIEW


#11 Oklahoma State at #22 West Virginia - 12:00 PM

2 of the nation's best passing attacks will be on display in this game, as both Oklahoma State and West Virginia love to air it out. OKSU's QB Mason Rudolph has thrown for 2,650 yards and 19 touchdowns in their 7 games this season and he will look to have a lot of success against a WVU defense that gives up 460 total yards a game. But while West Virginia gives up more total yards per game, Oklahoma State gives up more passing yards per game as the Cowboys give up just under 400 yards through the air. That's where the Mountaineers offense could find their big advantage, QB Will Grier has over 2,400 yards passing this season with 24 touchdowns. This game may come down to whoever has the ball last, but expect a lot of passing and a lot of scoring in this game.

PREDICTION: Oklahoma State 44-34


#3 Georgia vs Florida - 3:30 PM

The world's largest outdoor cocktail party takes place annually in Jacksonville, FL. For Florida, they are hoping the "throw out the records in a rivalry game" cliché hold true here, because on paper this seems like a big mismatch. Florida is still struggling on offense, the Gators have only scored 17 points in each of their last 2 games, both resulting in a close loss. Georgia on the other hand, has been putting up 40+ points consistently this season and are a bit more rested as they had a bye last weekend. The Bulldogs know that scoring 20 points or more will result in a win, unless Florida can find an offense, so look for Georgia to stay aggressive to get the lead and protect the lead by not turning the ball over once they have it as they may be the only way that the Gators have a chance to pull this one off.

PREDICTION: Georgia 31-13


#14 North Carolina State at #9 Notre Dame - 3:30 PM

Two of the hottest teams in the country right here, with Notre Dame currently on a 5 game win streak and North Carolina State winning their last 6. Notre Dame's bread and butter has been the run game, RB Josh Adams is putting himself in Heisman discussion and QB Brandon Wimbush adds some running ability on option plays. North Carolina State has a bit more balanced of an offense, QB Ryan Finley rarely turns the ball over and RB Nyheim Hines has rushed for over 100 yards in each of the last 3 games. The determining factor in this game could come down to the trenches, where a couple of potential top 10 NFL picks will be facing off. Notre Dame OT Matt McGlichey may be the best offensive lineman in the country, as many project him to be the first OL selected in the draft. NC State's DE Bradley Chubb will be a tough task though as he too is a top NFL prospect and can disrupt both the run and pass game. North Carolina State will need a balanced offense with no turnovers and for Bradley Chubb to be a difference maker in order to win here while Notre Dame needs to continue to run the football effectively in order to win.

PREDICTION: Notre Dame 31-20


#2 Penn State at #6 Ohio State - 3:30 PM

This will be the game of the week right here as a battle for Big Ten East division along with a playoff spot hangs in the balance. The Ohio State Buckeyes have seemed to turn it around after their lopsided loss to Oklahoma in week 2, putting up 50+ points in 4 of the last 5 games. There is still skepticism out there though as they have not played a ranked team so their offensive output may be due to competition, this will be the big test to see if the offense is for real or just fool's gold. Penn State goes as RB Saquon Barkley goes, as the Heisman frontrunner commands full attention from the opposition and even then, he's usually not contained. QB Trace McSorley can beat the defense with his legs as well as he is a real good decision maker when it comes to the option run. He can also pull back make plays with his arm, with TE Mike Gesicki and WR DaeSean Hamilton being his main targets. Ohio State's defensive front 7 will be a huge factor here, they will need to keep containment on Barkley and McSorley while making sure they do not give up the big play. Two evenly matched teams with a ton at stake here, doesn't get much bigger than this for a regular season game.

PREDICTION: Ohio State 26-24

Spread Offense 9/28/17: College Football Week 5 Preview

By Pat Luhta, @PLuhta


Week 4 certainly was fun, let's get right to my top 10 ballot and discuss further.


WEEK 5 TOP TEN

10. Ohio State (last week: 10)
9. TCU (last week: NR)
8. Michigan (last week: 9)
7. Washington (last week: 8)
6. USC (last week: 5)
5. Georgia (last week: 6)
4. Oklahoma (last week: 4)
3. Penn State (last week: 3)
2. Alabama (last week: 2)
1. Clemson (last week: 1)


The big change of the week is TCU joining the top 10 after their big win at Oklahoma State. Oklahoma State had been dominate on both sides of the ball all season and I was really buying in to them, but TCU overwhelmed them and brought home a lopsided 44-31 victory. QB Kenny Hill managed the game well and RB Darius Anderson could not be stopped, TCU were the big winners of the weekend and they have a top 10 ranking to show for it.

If you haven't started believing in the Georgia Bulldogs, then right now is a good time to start. The Georgia offense has so many weapons and their defensive line is one of the best in the country, they took on a Mississippi State team that just throttled LSU the week before and drilled them, 31-3. They flip flopped with USC after the Trojans yet again struggled to win convincingly against a team that they should've had no problems beating.

And we had 2 close calls in the night cap as both Penn State and Oklahoma avoided big upsets. Oklahoma struggled to win against a winless Baylor team, Baylor even recovered an onside kick in the final minute to give them a shot to tie the game but ultimately Oklahoma prevailed 48-41. And Penn State, while they dominated Iowa on the stat sheet, needed a touchdown on the last play of the game in order to defeat the Hawkeyes. It was truly a thrilling finish, that whole last drive was edge of your seat type feeling and QB Trace McSorley came up with the big throw when he needed to most and Penn State got the walkoff touchdown to remain undefeated.


HEISMAN WATCH

5. Luke Falk, QB, Washington State
4. Sam Darnold, QB, USC
3. Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville
2. Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State
1. Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma

Baker Mayfield remains in the #1 spot for the Heisman trophy, for now. RB Saquon Barkley showcased just how great he is on Saturday, shredding the Iowa defense in both rushing and receiving. Penn State even put him in on kick returns, that's how much they relied on him to bring home the win for the Nittany Lions and they needed every last one of those yards. Mayfield is still the choice, but it's very close now.

QB Luke Falk makes his debut on the Heisman watch as well. I know Mike Leach and the Washington State Cougars love throwing the ball, but 14 touchdowns to only 1 interception on a 4-0 team cannot be ignored. Add in his 1,378 yards and 76% completion percentage(yes, 76%) and we have the makings of a darkhorse candidate.



WEEK 5 PREVIEW



#5 USC at #16 Washington State - Friday 10:30 PM

We get treated to a big game on Friday night here in week 5 with the backend of an ESPN doubleheader(Miami-Duke before this is also a good game to tune in for) as USC heads to Pullman, WA to take on the Washington State Cougars. This one will be a battle of the QB's, both USC's Sam Darnold and WSU's Luke Falk are Heisman candidates and have been putting up big numbers this season. So in a battle of QB's, it always comes down to the defense and which team will be able to get the stops. This favors USC, as does a lot of other positions as their skill players on offense are also a bit better than WSU's. But USC has a knack for being a team that doesn't bust out it's full potential and flirts with losing a game that it should win based on talent level. Being on the road could be a factor as well for the Trojans, the Cougars have a big chance to make a statement here and come away with a huge home win. Knowing the way USC is though, after 2 weeks of sandbagging this will likely be a week in which they wake up and play like they are capable.

PREDICTION: USC 44-31


#7 Georgia at Tennessee - 3:30 PM

At 3:30 PM on Saturday, an old SEC rivalry kicks off. Tennessee had a heartbreaking loss to Florida 2 weeks ago and followed it up with a "hangover" game where they barely beat UMass, 17-13. Tennessee's offense looked stagant through 3 quarters against the Gators, but QB Quinten Dormady and RB John Kelly finally started getting a rythym down and put themselves in a position to win the game by scoring 17 4th quarter points, They'll need to find that rythym again and a lot sooner this game against Georgia, who boasts one of the top defensive lines in the country and hasn't given up more than 19 in a game all season. Georgia also boasts a pretty good offense, they are starting a 3 RB by committee approach and may have QB Jacob Eason back for this game as well. Tennessee hasn't beaten a top 10 SEC team at home since 1999 and this will be very tough to break that skid here against Georgia.

PREDICTION: Georgia 26-13


#24 Mississippi State at #13 Auburn - 6:00 PM

Last week, we were all trying to figure out if Mississippi State was for real or not. After a 31-3 beating by Georgia, how real they are remains in doubt. They came in with the #1 ranked offense and defense in the SEC, but Georgia was way too much for them and they didn't show that offense or defense out there. Auburn was beat down by Clemson earlier this season, luckily for them it wasn't a conference loss which makes it a better loss than the one Mississippi State took to Georgia. Mississippi State is clinging for the SEC West title hopes and needs this one big time, and will turn to their QB Nick Fitzgerald to lead the way for them. Auburn also has a pretty good QB in Jarrett Stidham and Auburn can remain right atop the SEC West, along with their rival Alabama, with a big win at home here.

PREDICTION: Auburn 27-17


#3 Clemson at #12 Virginia Tech - 8:00 PM

First off, if you want to see one of the best, if not the best, college football entrances then make sure you tune in a bit early for the pregame here as it doesn't get much better than Virginia Tech's. In a rematch of last year's ACC Title game, the Hokies look to avenge that loss to Clemson and make a big statement on Saturday night. This game will be a big step for redshirt freshman Josh Jackson, whose QB play has put the Hokies in ACC championship contender discussion. His 11 TD's on the season to only 1 interception has gotten some early Heisman buzz, and he can also do it on his feet which he showed off in the season opener against West Virginia where he rushed 11 times for 101 yards and 1 touchdown. Clemson also starts a redshirt freshman at QB, and Kelly Bryant is now not a stranger to big night games on the road. The Tigers went on the road to Louisville and came away with a big 47-21 victory, where Bryant threw for over 300 yards. The big key though, as always with Clemson, will be their defensive line. They have been bullying every team so far and have shut down the best players in the country, even defending Heisman trophy winner Lamar Jackson. If the defensive line can keep this up then it could make for a long night for Josh Jackson and the Hokies, so Virginia Tech will need to find a way to get him open looks in the passing game and some room to run as well. This should be a stellar game which we could see again later on in the ACC title game, here's to a fun Saturday night involving these two teams.

PREDICTION: Clemson 37-27

Spread Offense 9/21/17: College Football Week 4 Preview

By Pat Luhta, @PLuhta

Week 3 is in the books and we definitely learned a lot about some teams, and my top 10 ballot shows those lessons.


WEEK 4 TOP TEN

10. Ohio State (last week: NR)
9. Michigan (last week: 8)
8. Washington (last week: 7)
7. Oklahoma State (last week: 10)
6. Georgia (last week: 6)
5. USC (last week: 2 )
4. Oklahoma (last week 4)
3. Penn State (last week: 3)
2. Alabama (last week: 1)
1. Clemson (last week: 5)

There is a new #1, and the defending champs rightfully deserve the top spot. I had my reservations about Clemson this season, figuring that a young, inexperienced QB would haunt them with Auburn followed by Louisville in weeks 2 and 3 since it usually takes a few weeks to really get comfortable in there. But after shutting down Auburn in week 2, Clemson went to Louisville on Saturday night and absolutely destroyed the Cardinals. That defensive front is no joke and their offense hasn't missed a beat from last season. They are the defending champs and what's scary is that they are better this season than they were last season.

USC dropped from 2 to 5 because once again, you just can't trust this team. They went from struggling against Western Michigan to blowing the doors off of Stanford(who just lost to San Diego State so that win doesn't look so great now) to needing OT to beat a Texas team that had 51 points put up on them by Maryland in week 1. If they continue to be this Jekyll and Hyde team then eventually it'll show up at the worst time and they will lose.

Oklahoma State might have a very good defense, which is not good for opposing teams considering they always have one of the top offenses in the country. They are putting up a lot of points and not giving up many, they could be the best team in the Big 12 when it's all said and done.

WEEK 4 HEISMAN WATCH

5. Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA
4. Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State
3. Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville
2. Sam Darnold, QB, USC
1. Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma

We also have a new current leader for the Heisman trophy, Baker Mayfield has been excellent this season which includes a win at Ohio State in which he ripped their secondary to shreds. Coming right behind him is Sam Darnold, who had another great game and the team needed everything from him in order to remain undefeated.

Lamar Jackson slides from 1st to 3rd now after a less than stellar performance (to say the least) against Clemson. Jackson was bottled up for the most part as the Clemson defense made him look very human last Saturday night. He only completed 50% of his passes and had 3.4 yards a carry when running the ball, he did have 3 TD passes but 2 of those came when the game was way out of reach (Clemson won 47-21.) Still plenty of time for Jackson to climb back to the top, but a blowout loss like this is definitely a setback for the reigning Heisman trophy winner.


WEEK 4 PREVIEW


#16 TCU at #6 Oklahoma State - 3:30 PM

Oklahoma State has been rolling this season, putting up points in bunches while showing that they can also get stops on defense. QB Mason Rudolph has been leading this team and they are now looking down the road to a Big 12 title and possible playoff berth with the way they have been playing. Their first test comes to Stillwater this Saturday as QB Kenny Hill and the TCU Horned Frogs also look to remain undefeated and pull off a big upset here. TCU looks like a "surprise" team this season, as they were not ranked at the beginning but after 3 straight wins everyone seems to be buying in. Oklahoma State will put up points, but if TCU can slow them down a bit along with being able to break OKSU's defense then they have a chance to pull off the upset. That will be a tough task though, Oklahoma State will be ready and it will take a mistake free game in order for the Horned Frogs to come away with a win.

Prediction: Oklahoma State 44-21


#17 Mississippi State at #11 Georgia - 7:00 PM

The team with the best offense and defense in the SEC currently is, shockingly enough, the Mississippi State Bulldogs. MSU put everyone on notice with a 37-7 thrashing of LSU last Saturday, and now has another big test in front of them. With a top ranked defense though and a QB in Nick Fitzgerald leading the team, MSU looks like they will be ready for any and all comers. Georgia will again start freshman QB Jake Fromm as QB Jacob Eason is just getting back to practice, so look for UGA to utilize their run game and generate their offense from there. Georgia's defensive line will also be the key here, DL Trenton Thompson is one of the best in the country and the Georgia line will look to rattle MSU's Fitzgerald and shut down a team that is currently averaging over 40 points per game. The battle of the Bulldogs and the battle of undefeated teams, should be a stellar game between the hedges.

Prediction: Georgia 27-23


#4 Penn State at Iowa - 7:30 PM

Penn State is another team that has just been rolling so far and looks to be in the playoff mix all season. RB Saquon Barkley has been leading the way for the Nittany Lions, leading the team in both rushing and receiving, and is definitely a Heisman candidate. QB Trace McSorley also brings a lot of talent to the table and is more than just a game manager, while the defense has been excellent so far this season. But do not let the fact that Iowa is unranked fool you, this team is pretty talented and has upset on their mind. Iowa QB Nate Stanley has already thrown 10 touchdowns in their first 3 games while only being intercepted once, and distributes the ball well with 6 different players catching touchdown passes. The biggest factor may end up being the home crowd, where Iowa is always a hostile environment. Ask Ohio State, ask Michigan, ask plenty of other top schools and they can tell you how humbling of an experience that Kinnick Stadium can be. A big crowd on a Saturday night could swing momentum real quick, and Penn State will need to jump out to a lead and control the game in order to take that crowd out of it.

Prediction: Penn State 30-17

Spread Offense 9/6/17: College Football Week 2 Preview

By Pat Luhta, @PLuhta


WEEK 2 TOP TEN

10.Louisville
9. Michigan
8. Georgia
7. Oklahoma
6. Clemson
5. Washington
4. Penn State
3. USC
2. Ohio State
1. Alabama

Probably the first question upon reading this is where did Florida State go? I know that a loss to Alabama normally wouldn’t drop the #3 team in the country out of the top 10, but due to the QB position now up in the air, I’m taking a cautious approach to the Seminoles. QB Deondre Francois is out for the year, and freshman James Blackman now takes over as the starting QB, so FSU will have to earn back the trust before they are considered a top 10 team again.

Michigan is the lone newcomer to the top 10. After a sound beating of the Florida Gators, the Wolverines make their debut at #9. All other teams just slid up 1 spot due to Florida State’s exit except for Louisville, who was dropped from #9 to #10. The Cardinals won an unflattering game against Purdue, so they slid just a little bit here but with 2 big contests in a row(at North Carolina, vs Clemson), they can easily make their way up the rankings.


WEEK 2 HESIMAN WATCH

5. Nick Chubb, RB, Georgia
4. Saquan Barkley, RB, Penn State
3. Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma
2. Sam Darnold, QB, USC
1. Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville

I kept this ranking the same mainly because it was week 1 and some Heisman candidates had an underwhelming performance so I gave them a pass for it. After week 2 we are bound to see some shake-ups though, some big games involving these players are slated for week 2.


WEEK 2 PREVIEW

Week 1 is in the books and while Saturday was rather lackluster in great games(the 2 biggest games, Michigan-Florida and Alabama-Florida State turned out to be no contests in the 2nd half), the games on Sunday and Monday made up for it. UCLA’s 34 point comeback against Texas A&M in the final 18 minutes of the game, Virginia Tech’s win over West Virginia in a back and forth battle and Tennessee’s thrilling OT victory by stopping Georgia Tech on a 2 point conversion in OT were the highlights of the weekend.

Week 2 is now here and we have some big time games coming up, every college football fan should be ready for what’s in store come Saturday night when we have 4 big games all kicking off within an hour and half of each other.


#13 Auburn Tigers at #3 Clemson Tigers - 7:00 PM

The big action of the night starts in Clemson as the defending national champs welcome the Auburn Tigers to Death Valley. Both teams looked very good last Saturday, although they played more of a tune-up game against 2 lesser opponents but got the practice they desired while coasting to a win. Auburn defeated Georgia Southern 41-7 as QB Jarrett Stidham was impressive for the Tigers while RB Kam Martin added 136 yards on 14 carries. Their defense was even more impressive, holding Georgia Southern to only 78 total yards and they look to bring that kind of tenacity this weekend. Clemson rolled over Kent State, 56-3 and many people are not hesitating to crown new Clemson QB Kelly Bryant as the next Deshaun Watson. That will be tested here big time, we will see if Bryant is picking up right where Watson left off or if he struggles in his first primetime game against a stout defense. Clemson's home crowd will definitely play a factor in this though as they are known to have one of the loudest stadiums in all of college football, could give them the big swing that's needed.

PREDICTION: AUBURN 24-20 - This will be a good, close game but the Tigers get it done on the road.


#15 Georgia Bulldogs at #24 Notre Dame Fighting Irish - 7:30 PM

The big news coming out of Georgia is that QB Nick Eason will not be playing in this game due to an injury. That means that freshman Jake Fromm will make the start for the Bulldogs as they travel to South Bend. The good news for Jake Fromm is that a lot of his duty as QB should be turning around and handing the ball off the RB Nick Chubb, who went for 96 yards on 18 carries with 2 TD's in UGA's 31-10 win over Appalachian State. Coming off a disastrous 4-8 season, the Fighting Irish started their season on a positive note as they rolled over Temple, 49-16. New ND QB Brandon Wimbush looked impressive and RB Josh Adams looked even better, if those two keep it up then Notre Dame could find themselves victorious in this game. Georgia is more battle tested and looks to have the better team, but the newcomers from Notre Dame and homefield advantage could keep them in the game, possibly even steal this one.

PREDICTION: Georgia 34-17 - Nick Chubb should wear the ND defense down and while the ND's offense looked good last week, this may be too tall of a task for them.


#5 Oklahoma Sooners at #2 Ohio State Buckeyes - 7:30 PM

Last season, Ohio State went to Oklahoma and brought home a 45-24 victory, and the Sooners are now looking to return the favor here. Ohio State's young secondary was tested last week against the passing attack of Indiana, and they will be tested again here against Heisman candidate QB Baker Mayfield. Mayfield brings the experience and talent needed to play against a defense like OSU's, and while they looked good last week against UTEP, the losses of Samaje Perine, Joe Mixon and Dede Westbrook is a lot to make up. They will need to be made up for though if Oklahoma wants to have a shot at this, because Ohio State will be putting up points as they have one of the more electric offenses in the country. The Buckeyes had a rough first half last Thursday against Indiana, but made some adjustments and got it rolling and beat Indiana 49-21. OSU will be led by QB J.T. Barrett and freshman RB J.K. Dobbins as the team hopes to have similar success as they did last season against Oklahoma.

PREDICTION: Ohio State 42-31 - The score may end up closer than the actual game, but Ohio State's ability to get to the QB will stop the Sooners from being able to score with the Buckeyes.


#14 Stanford at #6 USC - 8:30 PM

Pac-12 powerhouses clash in this primetime game here, with USC hosting Stanford. Stanford currently has a 3 game winning streak over the Trojans but USC has national championship hopes, and will need to get over the roadblock here for people really buy into them. USC has playmakers everywhere, Heisman candidate QB Sam Darnold, RB Ronald Jones II and Deontay Burnett gives this team a ton of firepower. Stanford had last weekend off as they played the weekend before, and dominated Rice 62-7. QB Keller Chryst is the Stanford QB once again and looked very good in that first game, and got a lot of help from RB Bryce Love, who had 180 yards on just 13 carries. Stanford's defense will be the difference maker in this, they are typically known for a strong, stringent defense and if they can hold USC in check then this game could be theirs. That is a tough task though, USC is looking to rebound after struggling to beat Western Michigan and should be coming out firing on all cylinders.

PREDICTION: STANFORD 20-17 - This one should come down to the wire, Stanford's defense will rise to the occasion at the end though and halt a USC drive to end the game.

Spread Offense, Week 9: The Cure for Complacency

By Pat Luhta, @PLuhta

The past few weeks in college football have felt like treading water. Only a few games of note each week, no real shake ups in the top 10, just sort of staying afloat in one spot. When a pattern like this keeps up then it's easy to get complacent and start to not enjoy or really get interested in the games each week.

College football fans should have no worries about that going forward though, as week 9 snaps everyone out of that funk. Big games and some rivalries are slated for this weekend which fill each time slot, guaranteeing that a big game will be going on at all times. Week 9 takes us down that last turn as we go into the home stretch of the regular season, this week is definitely something that will keep fans glued to their TV's.

SATURDAY OCT. 29TH

People are starting to take notice of #10 West Virginia, with good reason. The Mountaineers are undefeated, putting up 15 points per game more than they are giving up and have now entered the playoff discussion. Dana Halgorsen has his squad playing well, and this weekend will be another test for them as the Oklahoma State Cowboys welcome WVU to Boone Pickens Stadium for a noon kickoff. While Oklahoma State is looking to get back into the Big 12 hunt along with regaining their top 25 status, they are currently 5-2 but one of those losses was on a controversial last play against Central Michigan. OKSU will need QB Mason Rudolph to play a very good game, the Cowboys' offense is a pass heavy spread so he will have to perform in order to get this upset win. West Virginia, however, has one of the better defenses and will look to put pressure on Rudolph all game. In  last week's game against Kansas, Rudolph was sacked 5 times and WVU will look to blueprint that game plan in order to get to him multiple times. The Mountaineers have done a great job of shutting down teams that are known for their high powered offense, giving up only 17 points to Texas Tech and 10 points to TCU, so being able to hold Oklahoma State to well under their season average of 41 points a game could end up being the deciding factor.

Also at noon, we have an in-state rivalry up in Michigan. In week 3 of this season, Michigan State beat Notre Dame handily and it was then that everyone circled October 29th as an undefeated showdown with the Michigan Wolverines. Then a streak of 5 straight losses happened and instead of welcoming their rival to East Lansing at 7-0, they do so with a 2-5 record. Michigan held up their end of the deal, the #2 team in the country is undefeated and will look to end a 5 game losing streak to their rival and knowing their Head Coach, they aren't going to take it easy on the Spartans even if they put the game away early. Michigan State will have to hope for the "throw the records out in rivalry games" cliché, win the turnover battle and somehow move the ball on offense. Michigan needs to go out there and put an end to this one early, MSU has nothing to lose so the Wolverines have to bury them quickly and keep them down.

At 3:30, we have the "World's largest outdoor cocktail party", and yes I will always refer to this game as such regardless of the push to change it's name. #14 Florida and Georgia meet in Jacksonville for this annual rivalry game, with the Gators looking to remain atop the SEC East standings. For Georgia, this could notch their first big win under 1st year head coach Kirby Smart, and they really need this one after losing 3 of their last 4 games. The Gators have a healthy Luke Del Rio at QB now, which gives the offense the potential to put up a lot of points. Stagnant while he was out with injury, the offense broke out big time last week by putting up 40 points against Missouri. For Georgia, they are in a transition year now with freshman QB Jacob Eason, hoping to get him the necessary experience to prepare him for the next 2 seasons when they feel they can make a run at the SEC title. Florida's offense should make them the favorite to win this one, but a win for Georgia would be a big statement going forward.

And the game most will be watching at 3:30 is a Pac-12 showdown, as #4 Washington plays at #17 Utah. The Huskies seem to be a year ahead of schedule, with QB Jake Browning having as Heisman contending season. Washington is currently a playoff team and a win would solidify their ranking even more since some believe that a 1 loss Louisville is currently more deserving of that 4th playoff spot. The Utes are a hiccup against Cal away from also being undefeated and this game is personal for QB Troy Williams. Williams was at Washington to start his collegiate career but transferred after the 2014 season. He is looking to prove what he can do out there, but it will not be easy against one of the best defenses in the country.

Utah, however, has been a chameleon when it comes to winning games, winning close games(31-27 against USC), defensive games(19-14 against Oregon State) and offensive shootouts(52-45 against UCLA.) If there's a team that can figure out a way to beat Washington regardless of the type of game it is, Utah is that team. They are equipped to play close games going into the 4th quarter while Washington hasn't been challenged this year, winning every game by at least 24 points. That, along with the Utah home crowd, could be a big factor if it is a close game in the 2nd half.

At 7pm, the Big Ten West takes the stage with the #7 Nebraska Cornhuskers facing the #11 Wisconsin Badgers. The undefeated Cornhuskers can all but ensure a trip to Indianapolis with a win here to play in the Big Ten title game, while the Badgers need this win to keep their Big Ten title hopes alive. Nebraska should have star WR Jordan Westerkamp back for this game, which will be a huge plus for them as they go up against one of the stingiest defenses in the country. The Badgers have given up the fewest TD's in the country, having played against 4 teams that were ranked in the top 10 at the time of their games makes it even more impressive. Wisconsin defense does so well because they control the trenches, so Nebraska will need some very good offensive line play and will turn to dual threat QB Tommy Armstrong to play mistake free ball. Nebraska looks to remain unbeaten while Wisconsin's backs are against the wall, a ton is at stake in this game.

Then the 8pm primetime slot is an ACC battle amongst teams that have recently dominated the ACC Atlantic division. The #3 Clemson Tigers go on the road to Tallahassee to face the #12 Florida State Seminoles. Florida State has battled back well after a blowout loss against Louisville and a heartbreaking loss to North Carolina earlier in the season. They look to get back into the top 10 and remain alive for a ACC title game berth here as a loss all but eliminates them from contention. Giving up the big play has haunted the Seminoles all season and they now face a Clemson offense that is capable of putting up big numbers. Last we saw of Clemson though, they escaped with an OT win at home against North Carolina State. They have been Jekyll and Hyde all season on offense, they looked every bit as good in their win over Louisville as they did bad in their win against NCSU. Heisman candidate Deshaun Watson can get the offense rolling again here though and a win against Florida State really puts them in the driver's seat for the ACC Atlantic title.

 Louisville will also be watching this game intently as a Florida State win not only puts the Seminoles back in the division hunt, but the Cardinals get that much needed Clemson loss since the Tigers own the head to head tiebreaker. Doak Campbell stadium will be alive and rocking Saturday night when these two ACC heavyweights do battle, the ACC Atlantic picture will become very clear with a Clemson win and very murky with a Florida State win.