Spread Offense 11/17/17: College Football Playoff Breakdown

By Pat Luhta, @PLuhta


So I'm here to switch up things a bit in my weekly college football article. Due to lack of marquee games this week, I'll be breaking down the college football playoff picture instead of doing a week 12 preview. But before I get to that, here's MY current top 10 ballot.


WEEK 12 TOP TEN

10. USC (last week: NR)
9. Notre Dame (last week: 4)
8. Ohio State (last week: NR)
7. Wisconsin (last week: 9)
6. Georgia (last week: 2)
5. Auburn (last week: 8)
4. Oklahoma (last week: 5)
3. Clemson (last week: 3)
2. Miami (last week: 6)
1. Alabama (last week: 1)


PLAYOFF PICTURE BREAKDOWN

There is currently only one team that has locked in a playoff spot, the Alabama Crimson Tide(barring a crazy upset by Mercer this weekend.) Alabama plays Auburn to end their regular season, if they win then they go on to the SEC championship game to face Georgia. If they lose, then Auburn goes to the SEC championship game. So there’s 3 scenarios for the Crimson Tide, they either win out, beat Auburn and lose to Georgia in SEC title game, or lose to Auburn and not qualify for the SEC title game. All 3 situations give Alabama a max of 1 loss, and they aren’t dropping them from #1 to out of playoffs over a loss to either Auburn or Georgia.
So Alabama is in, so where does that leave us as far as the other 3 playoff spots are concerned?

There are a total of 6 teams that currently control their own destiny, meaning if they win out then they are in. Miami, Clemson, Oklahoma, Wisconsin, Auburn and Georgia are the 6 teams vying for 3 remaining playoff spots, if they win out then they punch their ticket but if they lose than they are all but out of it, and a few teams may end up playing each other in what could amount to elimination games. Miami vs Clemson is set for the ACC title game, and there’s a possibility that Auburn vs. Georgia could meet in the SEC title game, so championship weekend could shape up to be a playoff weekend in itself.

Miami is the team that potentially has a “get out of losing a game” free card, but only if they lose to Clemson in the ACC title game. Losing to Virginia or Pitt could take destiny out of their hands, losing to either of those teams then following it up with a loss to Clemson and they are eliminated. The committee was skeptical of the Hurricanes up until the past 2 weeks, and after handily beating Virginia Tech and Notre Dame they have won their respect so Miami losing a game would not be as damaging as the other teams that control their destiny.

Clemson on the other hand, has to win out or else they are at the mercy of how other teams’ fare . They face the Citadel(haha ok then), at South Carolina in the Palmetto State rivalry and then Miami in the ACC title game, and while Tigers fans probably don’t want to hear this, Clemson’s only shot at losing a game and still making the playoffs is a loss to South Carolina. If they lose to the Citadel then they fall too far to make up the ground and if they lose to Miami in the ACC title game then the committee won’t be selecting a 2 loss team that didn’t win their conference. So Clemson needs to win out to ensure their spot, but if they lose to South Carolina then beat Miami to become ACC champs, then they still have a shot.

Georgia is somewhat in the same boat as Clemson is, but they need to tread very carefully these next two games. After their 40-17 loss to Auburn, the committee dropped them from #1 all the way to #7, so needless to say there’s now some skepticism. Another loss likely takes them out of the playoff race, but winning the SEC title might be enough to salvage their chances and get a playoff spot. The SEC championship is a must though, if Georgia beats both Kentucky and Georgia Tech but then loses to either Alabama or Auburn in the SEC title game, then they are out.

The other 3, Oklahoma, Wisconsin and Auburn, are all in a win out or be out situation.
Auburn has a shot to be the first ever 2 loss team to make the playoff. If they beat Alabama then go to the SEC championship game and beat Georgia(again) then there's no way that the committee can leave them out despite the 2 losses on their schedule. But at the same time, one loss the rest of the way and they are done so they would need to run the table and beat UL-Monroe, Alabama and then Georgia in order to get in.

Oklahoma has to run the table, because the committee has tipped their hands at how they feel about the Big 12. Aside from Oklahoma, only TCU and Oklahoma State remain in the top 25 so the Big 12 is not well represented at all, which puts Oklahoma in a must win situation despite only having 1 loss currently. Fortunately, Oklahoma has 2 very winnable games left in regular season with Kansas and West Virginia on their schedule and will likely be facing either TCU or Oklahoma State in the Big 12 championship game, 2 teams that they've already beaten. The opportunity is right there for them to take advantage of, but they have to take care of business or no playoffs for them.

As for Wisconsin, they are currently undefeated but sitting outside the top 4 playoff rankings. Their lack of schedule strength is what is holding them back, a 7-3 Northwestern team is their best win on the season. If they lose just 1 game then do not expect the committee to show mercy on them, they'll be dropped far enough that they won't be able to climb back up in time. Only possible chance for them to sustain a loss and make the playoffs would be for them to lose to Michigan but then beat Minnesota and win the Big Ten championship against Ohio State or Penn State, but even then it's a long shot.

This is the situation with Wisconsin and why I haven't given them much credit and still have them at #7 in my top 10 ballot, it's not so much their lack of schedule strength as it is their lack of impressive wins. I don't fault Wisconsin for their schedule for the most part, they can only control their non-conference schedule so the fact that the Big Ten schedule rotation got them to avoid Ohio State, Penn State and Michigan State while getting Michigan at home along with the B1G West being down right now is not on Wisconsin. The problem that I have with Wisconsin is that when they play these bad teams, they aren't really showing that dominance the other teams show when they play bad teams. 33-24 to Northwestern, 38-17 to Nebraska, 17-9 to Purdue, 38-13 to Maryland and 24-10 to Illinois doesn't jump out as a team that can take on an Alabama or Clemson and put up a fight for the national title. Their opportunity to show it is coming though, if they can run the table and end up 13-0 in a power 5 conference then there's no chance of them being left out.

Then there are a few teams that are still alive in the playoff hunt, but need to win out plus get some help in order to make the final 4. Ohio State, Notre Dame, Penn State and USC are all still in the running, but destiny is out of their hands.

Notre Dame might end up being the biggest long shot of the 4 to make the playoffs simply because they do not have a conference championship game. They play Navy this week and Stanford in the regular season finale, then they have to sit back and wait while all other playoff contending teams play the following weekend. The Fighting Irish need to hope that it goes chalk with Alabama, Miami and Oklahoma winning out, Wisconsin to lose a game and not win the Big Ten, and the B1G East winner to lose a regular season game but beat Wisconsin. That’s basically what Notre Dame is up against, so that loss to Miami last Saturday could very well have been a playoff eliminator.

Remember when I said that Notre Dame might be the biggest long shot? Well Penn State just said “hold my beer” on that statement. The Nittany Lions need to win out, but due to the Big Ten tiebreakers, they also need Ohio State to lose both of their games and Michigan State to lose at least 1 of their remaining 2 games. The Problem? Ohio State is hosting Illinois, who is currently a 41 point underdog to the Buckeyes, and Michigan State hosts Maryland and then goes to Rutgers. In that scenario, then Penn State would have 2 conference losses while OSU and MSU would end up with 3, and if then they would either have the tiebreaker with Michigan if the Wolverines beat both Wisconsin and OSU or if Michigan loses to Wisconsin then they would sit alone top the B1G East division. Even after all of that, they would need some chips to fall their way with teams that control their destiny losing. It all starts this weekend though, Penn State needs to be rooting for Illinois big time, because if the 41 point underdog can somehow pull this game off then doors begin to open, but if they lose to Ohio State then that door is slammed shut.

USC is already in their conference championship game, so all they can do is win out by beating UCLA then whoever they face in the Pac-12 title game. The best case scenario is for them to face Washington State, who is currently in a 3 way tie in the North division, so they can avenge one of their 2 losses on the season and make a case to the committee that to not look at the 3 point loss on the road but rather a neutral site win is more indicative of USC. From there they’ll just have to wait it out, hope for some upsets and see how it plays out. They’ll really want Ohio State and Auburn to lose, those 2 schools are ranked the highest of all 2 loss teams so USC will need them to lose in order to jump them in the rankings(Penn State is also ranked higher but a conference championship for USC will leapfrog them over PSU). Right now, all USC can do is win out and use their Pac-12 title as a bargaining chip incase some chaos were to happen.

As for the Ohio State Buckeyes, well let's just say that Ohio State fans are going to be required to do some things that will make them feel a little disgusted about. This is going to be tough for me to write since I am a Buckeyes fan but...here goes...Ohio State needs to be HUGE Alabama Crimson Tide fans the rest of the way. I know, I know, "yuck!" comes to mind here but OSU cannot afford to have 2 teams from the SEC make it so they need Alabama to first knock out Auburn in week 13 then knock out Georgia in the SEC title game. Aside from wanting Alabama to win out, and fortunately this isn't a guaranteed necessity, OSU may also want to pull for Michigan this Saturday against Wisconsin. I'm almost positive that 1 loss eliminates Wisconsin(meaning OSU beating an undefeated Wisconsin team in B1G title game knocks them out), but Wisconsin losing once before the title game and OSU handing them their 2nd loss will remove all doubt. Miami losing once before the ACC title game means that automatically either the Hurricanes or Clemson will suffer the 2nd loss, but if they are still undefeated heading into the ACC title game then they need to beat Clemson. If that happens then Alabama, Miami(or Clemson/Miami winner if Miami loses before ACC title game), Oklahoma and Ohio State are the 4 teams, that's what the Buckeyes need to get in. So Ohio State needs to run the table and win the Big Ten, and root for Alabama(big time), Michigan(possibly) and either Clemson or Miami to be a 2 loss non conference champ along the way.

So there you have it, a complete breakdown of what teams need in order to make the playoffs. The playoff picture is becoming clear, but knowing college football means knowing to expect chaos these next few weeks.

Spread Offense 11/10/17: College Football Week 11 Preview

By Pat Luhta, @PLuhta


WEEK 11 TOP TEN

10. Washington (last week: NR)
9. Wisconsin (last week: 10)
8. Auburn (last week: NR)
7. TCU (last week: NR)
6. Miami (last week 7)
5. Oklahoma (last week: 6)
4. Notre Dame (last week: 5)
3. Clemson (last week: 4)
2. Georgia (last week: 2)
1. Alabama (last week:1)

Week 10 scrambled some more things around as 3 top 10 teams on my ballot lost. The most shocking being the Ohio State Buckeyes losing to Iowa, 55-24. Losing on the road in conference play happens, but for a team that was in the playoff hunt to lose by 31 to a 5-3 team is unacceptable. OSU still controls their own destiny to the Big Ten championship, but kiss all playoff hopes goodbye after that performance.

Another team that is now out of the playoff race is fellow Big Ten team, Penn State. After blowing a 35-20 4th quarter lead against Ohio State in week 9, the Nittany Lions went to Michigan State looking for a bounce back game. After a 4 hour thunderstorm delay, the game resumed and instead of getting a bounce back game, they got bounced out of playoff contention on a last second field goal to lose 27-24.

Bedlam was just that, as the Oklahoma Sooners knocked off their rival Oklahoma State Cowboys, 62-52. QB Baker Mayfield put up 598 passing yards and 5 touchdowns in this game, and Oklahoma is still alive in the playoff hunt while Oklahoma State is out.

Miami needed a "prove it" game as their undefeated record wasn't being taken seriously due to the competition they've beaten. They got that last Saturday against Virginia Tech and they passed it with flying colors, knocking off the Hokies 28-10. Both the offense and defense answered the call as they moved the ball on one of the toughest defenses in the country while shutting down one of the better offenses in the country. They are legit contenders and there should be no more questions on how good this team is.

Alabama and Clemson both notched victories over ranked teams, and I've been saying that I wouldn't move Wisconsin from the 10 spot but they do move up to #9 now as a 1 loss Washington, that might have actually played a worse schedule than Wisconsin, sits at 10.


HEISMAN WATCH

5. Khalil Tate, QB, Arizona
4. Bryce Love, RB, Stanford
3. Josh Adams, RB, Notre Dame
2. Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State
1. Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma

We have a new #1 on the Heisman watch. Baker Mayfield torched the Oklahoma State Cowboys, throwing for 598 yards with 5 touchdowns and should now be the favorite to win the Heisman. What also helped Mayfield take over the #1 spot is that RB Saquon Barkley has had 2 underwhelming performances in games in which the Nittany Lions lost. The Heisman is all about being the best player in the biggest moments and Baker Mayfield has been huge for the Sooners when it matters the most while Barkley has not come through when Penn State needs him the most.

The "J.T. Barrett is a Heisman finalist" hype lasted a whole week, replacing him on the list is Arizona QB Khalil Tate. Tate doesn't throw the ball much but is a huge threat in the running game, with over 146 yard rushing in 5 straight games including a 230 and 327 yard game.

Tate might be a little late to make a charge, but any of the top 4 could end up winning the Heisman trophy.


#12 Michigan State at #13 Ohio State - 12:00 PM

Two weeks ago, Michigan State lost a triple OT game against Northwestern that could have started a downward trend for the Spartans with Penn State and Ohio State next on the schedule. There's no doubting this teams mental toughness now though, as they rose up last Saturday and beat Penn State 27-24 to put themselves in position to win the Big Ten East. QB Brian Lewerke has thrown for 400 yards in each of the last 2 games, and could easily make it 3 against Ohio State's secondary. After a big win against Penn State that brought OSU back into the playoff race, the Buckeyes are back to the drawing board after a 55-24 loss to Iowa. The OSU secondary needs to improve if they want to win this game and the defense overall needs to step up. On offense, the Buckeyes will need to keep running the ball while opening up the downfield passing game, both things that they failed to do while trying to come back against Iowa. Ohio State has faced Michigan State 5 times under head coach Urban Meyer, with a total score of 121-120 in favor of OSU so expect a closely fought game that will come down to the 4th quarter.

PREDICTION: Ohio State 28-27


#1 Georgia at #10 Auburn - 3:30 PM

Fans are starting to dream of a SEC championship that features 2 undefeated teams, and the team that is capable of crushing those dreams are the Auburn Tigers. Auburn faces Georgia this week and hosts Alabama in week 13, so while we are this close from getting a battle of 12-0 teams playing for the SEC, Auburn has 2 chances to eliminate the possibility. The Tigers are led by QB Jarrett Stidham and RB Kerryon Johnson, who will be the key players in this game if they are to win this one. Auburn has scored over 40 points in 6 of their 7 wins but only 6 points and 23 points in their 2 losses, so the Tigers will need to move the ball and put up points against a tough Georgia team here. Georgia has possibly the best defensive line in the country with a good secondary to complement them, and their offense is fully capable of scoring on any team in the country, led by RB’s Nick Chubb and Sony Michel. QB Jake Fromm is the wildcard, a true freshman going into an environment like this may be too big of a moment for him. As long as he relies on his RB's though while making the necessary throws, all should be good for the young QB.

PREDICTION: Georgia 31-23


#2 Alabama at #16 Mississippi State - 7:00 PM

Alabama has this game and the Iron bowl against Auburn as the hurdles left before reaching the SEC Championship game. They come in with a run first offense, which features RB's Damien Harris and Bo Scarborough along with QB Jalen Hurts, and an efficient yet conservative passing game. Their main ingredient of success though is their defense, which shouldn't surprise anyone. The Crimson Tide only average 9.8 points allowed per game and if they can continue that success against Mississippi State then they will clear this hurdle. MSU will turn to QB Nick Fitzgerald and ask him to do it all on offense and find a crack in that Alabama defense. Fitzgerald is not only the QB but also leads the team in rushing, him finding success in both will be paramount for this team to have a chance. Their defense will need to force some turnovers and put their offense in good field position, but this one will be about the Bulldogs offense and if they can overcome Alabama's defense.

PREDICTION: Alabama 28-6


#6 TCU at #5 Oklahoma - 8:00 PM

This game has "explosive" written all over it. Oklahoma is led by QB Baker Mayfield, who has been putting up huge numbers en route to a possible Heisman trophy. The Sooners have one of the best offenses in the country and it's nearly impossible to win a shootout against them. Fortunately for TCU QB Kenny Hill and the Horned Frogs offense, they may not have to. TCU's clear advantage in this game is their defense, only giving up 13.5 points per game. This is what it will all come down to, if TCU can contain Oklahoma's offense and give their own offense a chance to score enough points to win the game or if Oklahoma can continue their offensive dominance and put too many points up for TCU to contend with. Both teams coming in 8-1 and 5-1 in conference with the winner all but wrapping up a trip to the Big 12 championship game, the stakes are very high here.

PREDICTION: Oklahoma 41-26


#3 Notre Dame at #7 Miami - 8:00 PM

The classic "Catholics vs Convicts" match up reignited here on Saturday night. Notre Dame comes to Miami being just 2 points away from being undefeated, while host Miami is still undefeated and looking to keep it that way. The big thing to keep an eye on here is Notre Dame RB Josh Adams, who left last week's game under vague circumstances. If he is rested up and at his best then it will be a tough night for the Hurricanes, who have struggled stopping the run this season, but if he suffers from fatigue again and has to be removed from the game then QB Brandon Wimbush will have to pick up the slack for the Fighting Irish offense. Miami looked good against Virginia Tech last week, but again their offense will be in the hands of shaky QB Malik Rosier, who will need to keep drives alive and make big plays when available just like they did last week. This should be another great game to watch as both teams have playoff aspirations.

PREDICTION: Notre Dame 27-24


Other games to watch: #9 Washington at Stanford, #15 Oklahoma State at #21 Iowa State, #20 Iowa at #8 Wisconsin

Spread Offense 11/2/17: College Football Week 10 Preview

By Pat Luhta, @PLuhta


WEEK 10 TOP TEN

10. Wisconsin (last week: 10)
9. Oklahoma State (last week: NR)
8. Penn State (last week: 2)
7. Miami (last week: 6)
6. Oklahoma (last week: 9)
5. Notre Dame (last week: 8)
4. Clemson (last week: 7)
3. Ohio State (last week: 5)
2. Georgia (last week: 2)
1. Alabama (last week: 1)

Two of the top 5 teams went down last Saturday, and as the first college football playoff ranking of the season are released this week, my top 4 is who I currently would have in.

While the SEC isn’t what it used to be, the conference does account for the top 2 teams in the country now as Georgia jumps up to 2nd after a dominating win over Florida coupled with a Penn State loss. Penn State was well on their way to making a statement against Ohio State, but a big 4th quarter comeback by the Buckeyes lead to a thrilling 39-38 OSU win, catapulting the Buckeyes up to #3 while dropping Penn State to #9. And Iowa State’s victory over TCU moved the needle for 2 teams in the top 10, 1 obviously being TCU who fell out of the top 10 after the loss. The other being Oklahoma, who lost earlier in the season to Iowa State, who at the time we all thought the Cyclones were average at best. Well that Iowa State team is now 6-2 and tied for the Big 12 conference lead, so maybe that loss to them wasn’t such a terrible loss overall, although the way they lost was somewhat unacceptable(up 24-13 at halftime and at home.) Knowing what we know now about ISU, Oklahoma gets a slight bump in the rankings since they really don’t have a "bad loss" after all.

I typically hate the "pat me on the back" kind of fan, so naturally I’m going to do that here. Leading up to their game against USC, I ranked Notre Dame at #9 (AP/coaches poll had them #13) and said that it’s time to start believing in this team. Well after a beat down of USC followed by another beat down of #14 North Carolina, looks like the rest of the country is joining me in buying in to this Notre Dame team. They’re good and should definitely be a team to watch going forward this season.

Wisconsin yet again remains at #10, their 24-10 win over a 2-6 Illinois team just wasn’t enough to convince me to move them up at all.


HEISMAN WATCH

5. J.T. Barrett, QB, Ohio State
4. Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma
3. Bryce Love, RB, Stanford
2. Josh Adams, RB, Notre Dame
1. Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State

Saquon Barkley all but had the Heisman trophy wrapped up after the 1st quarter against Ohio State. He returned the opening kickoff for a touchdown and followed it soon after with a 36 yard touchdown run. After that though, he was stuffed all game and finished with just 44 yards on 21 carries in which 9 of those 21 carries went for negative yards and he also only had 4 receptions for 23 yards. His 2.1 YPC looks bad especially since OSU came back and won the game, take away his lone touchdown run and that’s 20 carries for 8 yards even so he became a non-factor in a game that his team needed him the most.

Josh Adams on the other hand, closed the gap big time with his 202 yard performance against North Carolina State. The Notre Dame RB carried the ball 27 times with a 7.4 YPC and helped the Fighting Irish overwhelm the #14 ranked Wolfpack. He’s right there in discussion now for the Heisman and may very well take over as the favorite with Wake Forest, Miami, and Stanford left on their schedule.

Bryce Love’s best case for the Heisman might have came last Thursday, in a game that he didn’t play in. Without him, the Cardinal struggled against Oregon State and needed a costly turnover by the Beavers to pull out the win, 15-14. In his absence, Stanford looks like a middle of the road team, not the #21 ranked team that could win the Pac-12 North division.

And J.T. Barrett makes his way on the list after an incredible performance against Penn State. Barrett has been playing excellent ever since the Oklahoma loss, but it was against lesser competition so he really needed to show it against a top team before he could be considered a Heisman candidate. 33-39 for 328 yards and 4 TD’s against Penn State, he completed his final 16 passes, went 13-13 with 3 TD’s in the 4th quarter alone, which included the game winning TD pass with under 2 minutes left in the game.
With Barkley’s stumbling and Adams and Barrett on the rise, this Heisman trophy is wide open for the taking now.




#7 Penn State at #24 Michigan State - 12:00 PM

A meeting between two teams coming off very emotional losses last Saturday. Penn State traveled to Columbus in attempts to put their stamp down on Big Ten dominance, got up 35-20 in the 4th and then a big comeback by the Buckeyes happened which ended in a 39-38 Penn State loss. Michigan State was at Northwestern hoping to remain unbeaten in conference play, the game went into triple OT where MSU needed a touchdown to match Northwestern but an interception sealed the deal for the Wildcats and MSU suffered it's first conference loss. This game will be about how each team bounces back from that loss, could see both teams firing on all cylinders in a rage or could see them have the "hangover" effect, or one of each which will make for a lopsided game. Penn State just needs to stick with what they have been doing, which is getting the ball to Saquon Barkley while mixing in some read option QB runs and an occasional deep pass. Michigan State needs to find some offense, they only scored 14 points on 5 turnovers against Michigan, 10 points against Indiana and 17 points in regulation against Northwestern. Their defense is stellar but even the best defense will give up 14+ points to Penn State so they'll need to be able to answer those scores if they want a shot at this.

PREDICTION: Penn State 27-14


#21 Stanford at #25 Washington State - 3:30 PM

This game has a lot of variables going into it. The main variable is Stanford RB Bryce Love and if he's playing this week. Love sat out last week with an ankle injury and the Cardinal offense looked bad without him. The Heisman candidate is their main key to success on offense, so him being able to not only play but be effective will be huge for Stanford in getting a win here. The other variable is Washington State QB Luke Falk, who was benched last week due to his poor performance as the Cougars lost 58-37 to Arizona. Falk was once a Heisman candidate as well, but has been off ever since their loss to Cal and head coach Mike Leach saw enough last week to finally bench him. This can either motivate him to get back to playing like he was earlier in the season or could rattle his confidence and make him play just as bad, if not worse. This game really is a wait and see type game, a lot of factors will be going into this one to see which team will be able to get the win.

PREDICTION: Stanford 37-20


#4 Clemson at #20 North Carolina State - 3:30 PM

Clemson had a nice bounce back game against Georgia Tech, the Tigers defeated the Yellow Jackets in their first game back since suffering their first loss of the season. Their defensive line looked as good as ever, stifling the GT triple option running attack and controlling the tempo all game. They'll need that again this week as they go up against a NC State offense that's capable of putting a lot of points up on the board. The Wolfpack have a balanced offense, led by QB Ryan Finley and RB Nyheim Hines, they'll look to chip away at the Clemson defense with sustaining drives and tiring the defense out. Also, look for NC State DE Bradley Chubb to be all over QB Kelly Bryant, getting pressure and disrupting the Clemson QB will be a priority for one of the best defensive ends in the country. This is going to be a close game, they mimic each other in a lot of ways but Clemson may just have a little more talent here. The homefield advantage could even things out though, NC State will be building momentum off of that and looking to get a big win here in front of the home crowd.

PREDICTION: Clemson 27-21


#5 Oklahoma at #11 Oklahoma State - 4:00 PM

Get ready, because it is time for the Bedlam game. This matchup here is as even as it gets, both teams averaging close to the same amount of points, total yards, rushing yards and passing yards while on defense they are similar in points allowed and passing yards allowed (Oklahoma State has a slightly bigger edge in rushing defense.) The Sooners put together a complete game last week after struggling the previous 4 weeks and beat Texas Tech 49-27. If that teams shows up then it could be bad news for Oklahoma State, but the Sooners also struggled to beat Baylor, Texas and Kansas State while losing to Iowa State so it's a toss up on how the Sooners will play. Oklahoma State has also been up and down this season, they are capable of putting up a lot of points but also have some games where their offense just isn't clicking. 2 weeks ago against Texas for example, after beating Texas Tech 41-34 they were barely able to score on the Longhorns and squeaked out a 13-10 victory. So both teams are a bit of a wildcard here, we could have a shootout on our hands or see a defensive game while the offenses struggle. Both teams have the Big 12 championship and a playoff spot well within reach, the loser of this game though will all but be eliminated from playoff contention and will need help reaching the Big 12 championship game.

PREDICTION: Oklahoma 38-33


#13 Virginia Tech at #10 Miami - 8:00 PM

The battle for the top spot in the ACC Coastal division is right here. Miami has struggled to score points in their last 4 games, escaping with a win in every one of those 4 games. Their struggle started right around the time that RB Mark Walton went down with a season ending injury and the offense shifted to QB Malik Rosier. While Rosier throws for a lot of yards, his inaccuracy tends to kill drives, as he is over 50% completion percentage in just 2 of his last 4 games and is just 56% on the season. He'll need to be a lot more fluid and sustain drives if Miami wants to win this one, that may be a tough task though as the Hurricanes face a Virginia Tech team that only allows 11.5 points per game. If Virginia Tech can continue their dominance on defense and get their normal offensive output then that should be enough to take this win back home. The offense, led by QB Josh Jackson, loves spreading it out and playing fast so expect them to put up 24+ points in this game, leaving the onus on Miami to score with them. The Hokies have bounced back after losing to Clemson, they've won their last 3 and look to build off that here to take over the division lead.

PREDICTION: Virginia Tech 31-17


#19 LSU at #2 Alabama - 8:00 PM

Here's a game that always tends to be a big time defensive slugfest. Alabama may be playing with a chip on their shoulder now that the college football playoff rankings were revealed and they came in at #2 instead of their assumed spot at #1. The main thing for the Crimson Tide in this is to control the line of scrimmage and not turn the ball over, if they accomplish both of those things they should cruise to a victory. LSU needs to find some offense here, RB Derrius Guice will be keyed on so the Tigers will need QB Danny Etling to get the passing game going in order to open things up on offense. LSU's front 4, which includes projected top 10 pick Arden Key, will need to win the battle in the trenches and not let RB's Damien Harris and Bo Scarborough run all over them. If they can stop the run and put it in the arm of QB Jalen Hurts then they have a chance at forcing some turnovers and controlling time of possession.

PREDICTION: Alabama 27-6

Spread Offense 10/27/17: College Football Week 9 Preview

By Pat Luhta, @PLuhta


WEEK 9 TOP TEN

10. Wisconsin (last week: 10)
9. Oklahoma (last week: 8)
8. Notre Dame (last week: 9)
7. Clemson (last week: 7)
6. Miami (last week: 6)
5. Ohio State (last week: 5)
4. TCU (last week: 4)
3. Georgia (last week: 3)
2. Penn State (last week: 2)
1. Alabama (last week: 1)

After a week in which we saw 7 teams in the top 25 lose to unranked teams, including 4 teams in the top 10, this past Saturday went chalk. The only movement in my top 25 is a flip flop of Notre Dame and Oklahoma after the Fighting Irish put on a dominating performance against USC while Oklahoma needed a last minute touchdown to beat Kansas State.

The rest did what they were supposed to do and took care of business. Penn State extracted revenge on Michigan after their 49-10 loss to the Wolverines last season to the tune of 42-13. Alabama remained dominant while once again letting Tennessee know just how far away they are to becoming competitive rivals again. TCU did what every team does to Kansas and Miami held off Syracuse, who was looking for their 2nd straight big upset.


HEISMAN WATCH

5. Josh Adams, RB, Notre Dame
4. Jonathan Taylor, RB, Wisconsin
3. Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma
2. Bryce Love, RB, Stanford
1. Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State

Much like my top 10 ballot, there's not much change to this list. The only thing different from last week is that reigning Heisman winner Lamar Jackson has fallen out of the top 5 and has been replaced by RB Josh Adams. The Notre Dame RB ran all over USC last Saturday, gaining 191 yards on the ground with 3 TD's. On the season, Adams has 967 yards on only 105 carries(9.2 YPC) with 8 touchdowns.

1-4 holds steady, as Saquon Barkley furthered himself as the clear cut favorite after an 108 yard, 2 touchdown game against Michigan.


WEEK 9 PREVIEW


#11 Oklahoma State at #22 West Virginia - 12:00 PM

2 of the nation's best passing attacks will be on display in this game, as both Oklahoma State and West Virginia love to air it out. OKSU's QB Mason Rudolph has thrown for 2,650 yards and 19 touchdowns in their 7 games this season and he will look to have a lot of success against a WVU defense that gives up 460 total yards a game. But while West Virginia gives up more total yards per game, Oklahoma State gives up more passing yards per game as the Cowboys give up just under 400 yards through the air. That's where the Mountaineers offense could find their big advantage, QB Will Grier has over 2,400 yards passing this season with 24 touchdowns. This game may come down to whoever has the ball last, but expect a lot of passing and a lot of scoring in this game.

PREDICTION: Oklahoma State 44-34


#3 Georgia vs Florida - 3:30 PM

The world's largest outdoor cocktail party takes place annually in Jacksonville, FL. For Florida, they are hoping the "throw out the records in a rivalry game" cliché hold true here, because on paper this seems like a big mismatch. Florida is still struggling on offense, the Gators have only scored 17 points in each of their last 2 games, both resulting in a close loss. Georgia on the other hand, has been putting up 40+ points consistently this season and are a bit more rested as they had a bye last weekend. The Bulldogs know that scoring 20 points or more will result in a win, unless Florida can find an offense, so look for Georgia to stay aggressive to get the lead and protect the lead by not turning the ball over once they have it as they may be the only way that the Gators have a chance to pull this one off.

PREDICTION: Georgia 31-13


#14 North Carolina State at #9 Notre Dame - 3:30 PM

Two of the hottest teams in the country right here, with Notre Dame currently on a 5 game win streak and North Carolina State winning their last 6. Notre Dame's bread and butter has been the run game, RB Josh Adams is putting himself in Heisman discussion and QB Brandon Wimbush adds some running ability on option plays. North Carolina State has a bit more balanced of an offense, QB Ryan Finley rarely turns the ball over and RB Nyheim Hines has rushed for over 100 yards in each of the last 3 games. The determining factor in this game could come down to the trenches, where a couple of potential top 10 NFL picks will be facing off. Notre Dame OT Matt McGlichey may be the best offensive lineman in the country, as many project him to be the first OL selected in the draft. NC State's DE Bradley Chubb will be a tough task though as he too is a top NFL prospect and can disrupt both the run and pass game. North Carolina State will need a balanced offense with no turnovers and for Bradley Chubb to be a difference maker in order to win here while Notre Dame needs to continue to run the football effectively in order to win.

PREDICTION: Notre Dame 31-20


#2 Penn State at #6 Ohio State - 3:30 PM

This will be the game of the week right here as a battle for Big Ten East division along with a playoff spot hangs in the balance. The Ohio State Buckeyes have seemed to turn it around after their lopsided loss to Oklahoma in week 2, putting up 50+ points in 4 of the last 5 games. There is still skepticism out there though as they have not played a ranked team so their offensive output may be due to competition, this will be the big test to see if the offense is for real or just fool's gold. Penn State goes as RB Saquon Barkley goes, as the Heisman frontrunner commands full attention from the opposition and even then, he's usually not contained. QB Trace McSorley can beat the defense with his legs as well as he is a real good decision maker when it comes to the option run. He can also pull back make plays with his arm, with TE Mike Gesicki and WR DaeSean Hamilton being his main targets. Ohio State's defensive front 7 will be a huge factor here, they will need to keep containment on Barkley and McSorley while making sure they do not give up the big play. Two evenly matched teams with a ton at stake here, doesn't get much bigger than this for a regular season game.

PREDICTION: Ohio State 26-24

Spread Offense 10/18/17: College Football Week 8 Preview

By Pat Luhta, @PLuhta

Upsets galore was the trend for week 7, and my new top 10 ballot reflects those changes.

WEEK 8 TOP TEN

10. Wisconsin (last week: 10)
9. Notre Dame (last week: NR)
8. Oklahoma (last week: NR)
7. Clemson (last week: 1)
6. Miami (last week: 9)
5. Ohio State (last week: 7)
4. TCU (last week: 5)
3. Georgia (last week: 4)
2. Penn State (last week: 3)
1. Alabama (last week: 2)

The upsets started on Friday night, where both Clemson and Washington State went down to unranked teams. Clemson lost QB Kelly Bryant in the 2nd quarter and the Syracuse Orange played well out there and pulled off a huge upset. Clemson fell from the #1 spot in my top 10 ballot to #7, thanks to some other upsets along with giving them the benefit of the doubt due to Bryant's injury. Then, the Washington State Cougars were not only beat, but humiliated, by the Cal Golden Bears. Top 10 teams do get upset, it happens, but losing 37-3 to an unranked team is unforgivable and fell out of my top 10. The Cougars' rival, the Washington Huskies, also fell ill with the upset bug. The Huskies looked bad against the Arizona State Sun Devils and lost a sloppy game, 13-7. And just like their in-state rival, they also fell out of my top 10.

I still do not want to move Wisconsin from that 10 spot, it's not only that they haven't played a good team but they haven't blown a team out like other schools have been doing. If they were blowing the doors off these teams then I could start buying into them, but 33-24 against Northwestern, 38-17 against Nebraska and 17-9 against Purdue isn't doing much to sway my opinion.

For the 2nd week in a row, 2 new teams are in my top 10. Oklahoma makes an appearance again after a big win against rival Texas, stabilizing themselves after a rough couple of weeks. And I'm starting to buy Notre Dame, who makes an appearance at #9 this week. A 1 point loss to Georgia(who is ranked #3) is all that is separating them from currently being undefeated, they have convincingly won all of their other games and that includes a 38-18 road win at Michigan State.

Alabama takes back the #1 spot, where many felt they rightfully belonged in the 1st place.



HEISMAN WATCH

5. Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville
4. Jonathan Taylor, RB, Wisconsin
3. Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma
2. Bryce Love, RB, Stanford
1. Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State

Right now, this seems like a 3 player race for the Heisman. Lamar Jackson's Heisman run is on life support now as it appears he won't be going back to back with trophy wins. And Jonathan Taylor has popped up on my Heisman watch list after his 2nd straight 200 yard performance. Wisconsin will hit the bulk of the schedule soon so his campaign will be defined by that stretch.

Baker Mayfield pops back up to 3 after a big game against Texas, also helping his campaign are the struggles of Lamar Jackson and Luke Falk last week. RB Bryce Love had yet another big game, rushing for 147 yards and 2 scores in a 49-7 win over Oregon. Penn State was off last weekend, but Barkley has Michigan this week followed by Ohio State, 2 huge games for him to stake his claim to the Heisman trophy.



WEEK 8 PREVIEW


#20 UCF at Navy - 3:30 PM

Week 8 doesn't have quite the slate of good games that we normally hope for, but this game is a nice appetizer before the 2 huge night games

Central Florida is not having any problems on offense or defense this season, averaging 50 points per game while only giving up just under 17 points per game. QB McKenzie Milton has been impressive this season, his 15 TD's and his 70% completion percentage currently has him as the 2nd highest rated QB in the nation as far as passing efficiency goes. The Golden Knights also add a balanced running attack to go along with their passing game, averaging 225 yards a game on the ground. Navy is looking to bounce back after their first loss of the season last week, a 30-27 loss to Memphis in a game where they turned the ball over 5 times.

Navy always offers some unique challenges, their triple option is tough to defend and the Midshipmen average just under 400 rushing yards per game. The key will be for UCF to get them out of their comfort zone and force them to pass, 3rd down and long situations and getting on the scoreboard early and building a lead will do it. Easier said than done though, QB Zach Abey already has over 1,000 rushing yards on the season and Navy will turn to him to keep the offense going and get a big win here.

PREDICTION: UCF 38-20


#19 Michigan at #2 Penn State - 7:30 PM

Saquon Barkley vs. the Michigan defense.

That's what this game comes down to, Barkley is a Heisman candidate that accounts for 38% of Penn State's offense. He is both their leading rusher and receiver and Penn State goes as he goes. Michigan though, doesn't allow many yards, especially on the ground, and they are possibly the best defense in the country. They only allow 85 rushing yards and 138 passing yards a game and the most points that they've given up in a game has been 20. Michigan will especially need the defense to show up due to their struggling offense, they will need to turn to the run game heavily in this game in order to score some points. If Barkley does break loose a bit though and Penn State has some success against the stingy Michigan defense, then Michigan will be put in a tough spot due to their issues at QB and it will be made into an even tougher game for them to win. The "white out" at Beaver Stadium will be in full effect as they have not forgotten the 49-10 loss that Michigan handed them last year, while Michigan looks to make a huge statement on the road and keep their sights set on a Big Ten championship.

PREDICTION: Michigan 24-23


#11 USC at #13 Notre Dame - 7:30 PM

A big rivalry here takes place Saturday night, with the USC Trojans heading to South Bend, IN to take on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. On paper, this looks about as even as it gets, both teams are similar in points per game, points allowed per game, total yards for per game and total yards against per game. USC continues to escape games this season, as was the case last week as they defeated Utah, 28-27. They have turnover issues which is the cause of these close games, including a loss to Washington State, and they are facing a Notre Dame team that is good enough to where they can't afford to play a sloppy game. Notre Dame has won 4 straight since their 1 point loss to Georgia, and each game has not been a contest even. The Irish may not have a big passing game, only 7 passing touchdowns in 6 games, but their rushing attack(which includes QB Brandon Wimbush) has been getting it done. Wimbush and RB Josh Adams have combined for nearly 1,200 rushing yards and 13 TD's, this is something that USC needs to contain in order to pull off a big road win. If Notre Dame can keep their running game going though along with pressuring USC QB Sam Darnold and getting some turnovers then this will be a statement win for them.

PREDICTION: Notre Dame 30-27

Spread Offense 10/13/17: College Football Week 7 Preview

By Pat Luhta, @PLuhta

Week 6 provided us with some serious shake-ups to the top 10, I'll go straight to my top 10 ballot here.


WEEK 7 TOP TEN

10.Wisconsin (last week: NR)
9. Miami ( last week: NR)
8. Washington State (last week: 10)
7. Ohio State (last week: 8)
6. Washington (last week: 6)
5. TCU (last week: 8)
4. Georgia (last week: 4)
3. Penn State (last week: 3)
2. Alabama (last week: 2)
1. Clemson (last week: 1)

The top 4 remained the same from last week, but the rest all got jumbled around as we have 2 new teams to the top 10. I've been severely reluctant to rank Wisconsin in the top 10 because they have an incredibly soft schedule until November, but they come in at 10 which is where they'll top out at until they get themselves a big win on the resume. The Miami Hurricanes kept their undefeated season alive with a last second win against Florida State, and make their debut in my top 10 by coming in at #9. They are currently 5-0 and have a few big games coming up in November that will truly show if this team is a playoff contending team.

With 2 debuts in the top 10 means that 2 teams are out of the top 10. First, the Michigan Wolverines dropped a tough game to in-state rival Michigan State, 14-10. The defense did what they could but the offense turned the ball over 5 times and it's practically impossible to win under those circumstances. The Oklahoma Sooners lost a game at home to an Iowa State team that was just 2-2 on the season. The Sooners were 31 point favorites in this game and had a 24-10 lead before squandering the lead and eventually losing 38-31. They nearly coughed up a game the week before to a winless Baylor team and now this loss, Oklahoma needs to get it together soon with Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State and TCU looming.


HEISMAN WATCH

5. Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma
4. Luke Falk, QB, Washington State
3. Bryce Love, RB, Stanford
2. Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville
1. Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State

A little movement in the Heisman watch this week, Baker Mayfield slides down to 5 after an Oklahoma loss in which he did not perform very well. Stanford RB Bryce Love continues to climb up the watch list, he has 1240 yards and 9 TD's in 6 games this season putting him on an incredible pace to be well over 2,000 yards.

Saquon Barkley holds down the #1 spot, as he accounts for nearly 40% of Penn State's offense. A bye week this week then back to back tests against Michigan and Ohio State will be a huge proving ground for his Heisman campaign.



WEEK 7 PREVIEW



#12 Oklahoma vs Texas - 3:30 PM

The Red River Rivalry kicks off at 3:30 in the Cotton Bowl, one of the biggest rivalries in the entire country. Oklahoma has not looked very good these past 2 games, a narrow win against Baylor followed by a home loss to unranked Iowa State. They will need QB Baker Mayfield to be the true leader of the team and right this ship, they still can make the playoffs if they win out so this is the beginning of "must win" games for the Sooners. Texas' new Head Coach, Tom Herman, started out last season with a win over the Oklahoma Sonners when he was coaching the Houston Cougars. He'll need more of that success here as this would be a signature win for him and also keep Texas in the Big 12 title game picture. As it goes for any rivalry, this one has proven to be wildly unpredictable and with the way both teams have been playing, do not be surprised at any outcome.

PREDICTION: Oklahoma 37-27


#10 Auburn at LSU - 3:30 PM

SEC West foes collide right here. Auburn is starting to climb their way back up the polls and are making people believe that they are a contender still. They lost a lopsided game in week 2 at Clemson and have been on a roll ever since, winning 4 straight which includes a 49-10 drubbing of then #24 Mississippi State. QB Jarrett Stidham has been leading this team on offense as they've put up at least 44 points in each of the last 3 games. LSU has been their kryptonite though as they've lost their last 8 trips to Baton Rouge, and LSU is looking to make it 9 here. LSU had high expectations this season, but a conference loss to Mississippi State and then an upset loss against Troy 2 weeks later really derailed those expectations. They had a bounce back game last week though against Florida, defeating the #21 ranked Gators 17-16. They have a tough defensive front that will look to shut down Stidham, much like Clemson did. They'll ride their running attack on offense, led by Darrius Guice, in order to move the ball and pull off the upset.

PREDICTION: LSU 19-17


Utah at #13 USC - 8:00 PM

This game lost a bit of it's luster after Utah, ranked #20 at the time, lost a close game to Stanford which dropped them out of the top 25. Physicality will be the name of the game for Utah, they'll look to control the trenches on both sides of the ball in order to dictate the flow of the game. Their defense was gashed by Stanford RB Bryce Love last week, but their run defense still is #1 in the Pac-12 with only giving up 108 rushing yards a game. They should also get a boost if QB Tyler Hunley is back for this game, he injured his shoulder in a game against Arizona two weeks ago and missed last week's game against Stanford. If he cannot go then Utah will turn to QB Troy Williams, who started for the Utes last season.

For USC, it will be controlling Utah's pass rush and not turning the ball over. Turnovers have haunted the Trojans this season, QB Sam Darnold has thrown 9 INT's and lost a fumble this season and they've been their own worst enemy in games this season. They are one of the most talented teams in the country, but always seem to either play down to competition or make crucial mistakes that keep opposing teams in the game and it's bit them once(Washington State) and could bite them again here.

PREDICTION: USC 30-14

Spread Offense 10/5/17: College Football Week 6 Preview

By Pat Luhta, @PLuhta

Per usual, let's start off with my current top 10 ballot and a little week 5 recap.

WEEK 6 TOP TEN

10.Washington State (last week: NR)
9. Ohio State (last week: 10)
8. TCU (last week: 9)
7. Michigan (last week: 8)
6. Washington (last week: 7)
5. Oklahoma (last week: 4)
4. Georgia (last week: 5)
3. Penn State (last week: 3)
2. Alabama (last week: 2)
1. Clemson (last week: 1)

The big "upset" over the week was Washington State defeating USC. The Trojans have been flirting with disaster all year basically and their issues with turning the ball over finally caught up to them. Of course, this was the week that I thought they would put it all together and really show how talented they are, but they continued their sloppy play and they did so against a team that was talented enough to take advantage of their mishaps. Hats off to Washington State for capitalizing on the moment and making a big statement, they jump into my top 10 now after that win.

Aside from that, the only real movement other than USC exiting the top 10 and those behind them moving up a spot was a flip flop of Oklahoma and Georgia. Georgia put it on Tennessee 41-0 and if you watch them, you can tell how good their skill position players are along with how tough that defense is and right now I can't leave them out of the top 4. Nothing against Oklahoma and we still have a lot of games left to be played, but Georgia has been impressive with knocking teams around so far and if season ended today then I can't leave them out of the playoffs.

Clemson once again shows that they are the #1 team in the country, a solid beat down of Virginia Tech at Lane Stadium further proves that this team is as good, if not better, than they were last season.


HEISMAN WATCH

5. Bryce Love, RB, Stanford
4. Luke Falk, QB, Washington State
3. Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville
2. Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma
1. Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State

Saquon Barkley takes over the #1 spot as he once again took over the game for Penn State. The Iowa game last week seemed to be a turning point, where PSU is getting away from anything other than making sure Barkley touches the ball as often as possible and he started the game on Saturday against Indiana with a 98 yard punt return. His 56 yards rushing is a bit deceiving, he also had 51 yards receiving on 4 catches and the already mentioned 98 yard punt return, Penn State is finding ways to get him as many touches as possible and he is the reason why Penn State is currently undefeated and a playoff team.

Sam Darnold is officially out of the top 5 after yet another rough outing. USC had all the capability in the world to defeat Washington State but Darnold's poor QB play, topped off with a fumble to end the game, lost them the game. Replacing him is Stanford RB Bryce Love, who has been tearing it up this season and just had himself a 301 yard 3 TD game against Arizona State last Saturday. On the season, he's already over 1,000 yards rushing and the worst game he's had has been a 160 rushing yard performance.








WEEK 6 PREVIEW



#17 Louisville at #24 NC State - Thursday 8:00 PM

NC State started the season with some hype as the "sleeper" pick in the ACC, and that hype train was quickly derailed in week 1 after a 35-28 loss to South Carolina. Since then though, the Wolfpack have regrouped nicely and have won their last 4 games. With some hype around them coming back, it is now their chance to validate themselves as they welcome a tested and proven Louisville team. They'll need QB Ryan Finley to continue his mistake free play, having yet to throw an interception on the season, and will need to find a way to slow down Louisville's QB, Lamar Jackson. Jackson is the defending Heisman trophy winner and absolutely scorched the Wolfpack last season, putting up 4 first half touchdowns en route to a 54-13 win. NC State must find an answer for him, they'll need to slow him down big time and also be able to put up points on offense in order to pull the upset off.

PREDICTION: Louisville 48-24


#13 Miami at Florida State - 3:30 PM

This may not seem like a big game, but rivalry games are so tricky to predict that this may end up being a lot better than some people may think. Florida State has won the last 7 games against rival Miami, but that streak is very much in doubt. The Seminoles have been struggling ever since QB Deandre Francois went down with a season ending injury, losing to NC State then escaping with a win against Wake Forest. Miami comes in with a 3-0 record, as it seems Head Coach Mark Richt has this team thinking of a possible ACC Championship this season. Miami hopes to have starting RB Mark Walton healthy and available for this game, and this could really help out FSU if he is either unable to play or plays but is hampered by his ankle injury. The Hurricanes definitely have playmakers elsewhere though with the passing game of QB Malik Rosier and they are also getting back WR Ahmond Richard for this game as well. Florida State will need star safety Derwin James to be everywhere out there and on offense, the Seminoles have to get the running game going. Last year's contest came down to a blocked extra point, expect anything when these rivals meet up.

PREDICTION: Miami 23-20


#23 West Virginia at #8 TCU - 3:30 PM

The lone Saturday game of the week that features 2 ranked teams here, TCU looks to remain perfect as they host the West Virginia Mountaineers. TCU is coming off a huge win at Oklahoma State two weeks ago and after a bye week last weekend, looks to continue their momentum here. This game will be about the offenses, West Virginia has the 2nd ranked offense in the entire country and QB Will Grier and RB Justin Crawford look to balance it out and do what Oklahoma State was unable to, put up the necessary points against the Big 12's 2nd best defense. TCU will also rely on their QB-RB combo, with QB Kenny Hill and RB Darius Anderson leading the way for the Horned Frogs offense. If they play like they did against Oklahoma State then this will be extremely tough for West Virginia to pull off the upset. This game should have plenty of offense and do not be surprised if we see another road upset in the Big 12 here.

PREDICTION: West Virginia 44-37


Michigan State at #7 Michigan - 7:30 PM

Much like the Miami-Florida State game, this is also a rivalry which on paper seems to be a lopsided game. Michigan State is 3-1 this season, totaling their wins from a horrific 2016 season. QB Brian Lewerke seems to have a lot of upside and they'll need him to come up big against a tough Michigan defense in order to bring the Paul Bunyon Trophy back to East Lansing. The biggest issue for MSU this season has been their running game, Lewerke is also the leading rusher on the team even though he only has 248 yards total in 4 games and RB LJ Scott is averaging under 4 yards a carry. It won't get any easier to establish a run game for MSU, as they'll face a Michigan defense that's only allowing 69.3 yards a game(and that includes a rush heavy triple option Air Force team.) Michigan will be without QB Wilton Speight as John O'Korn will get the start, and he'll basically be asked to just manage the game and make some plays when available while the run game and defense will be tasked to win the game. For the first time ever, this rivalry will be played under the lights, and is the primetime game of the week.

PREDICTION: Michigan 27-13