TRIPLE THREAT CLE: CFB Playoff

Showing posts with label CFB Playoff. Show all posts

Friday, November 17, 2017

Spread Offense 11/17/17: College Football Playoff Breakdown

By Pat Luhta, @PLuhta

So I'm here to switch up things a bit in my weekly college football article. Due to lack of marquee games this week, I'll be breaking down the college football playoff picture instead of doing a week 12 preview. But before I get to that, here's MY current top 10 ballot.

WEEK 12 TOP TEN

10. USC (last week: NR)
9. Notre Dame (last week: 4)
8. Ohio State (last week: NR)
7. Wisconsin (last week: 9)
6. Georgia (last week: 2)
5. Auburn (last week: 8)
4. Oklahoma (last week: 5)
3. Clemson (last week: 3)
2. Miami (last week: 6)
1. Alabama (last week: 1)

PLAYOFF PICTURE BREAKDOWN

There is currently only one team that has locked in a playoff spot, the Alabama Crimson Tide(barring a crazy upset by Mercer this weekend.) Alabama plays Auburn to end their regular season, if they win then they go on to the SEC championship game to face Georgia. If they lose, then Auburn goes to the SEC championship game. So there’s 3 scenarios for the Crimson Tide, they either win out, beat Auburn and lose to Georgia in SEC title game, or lose to Auburn and not qualify for the SEC title game. All 3 situations give Alabama a max of 1 loss, and they aren’t dropping them from #1 to out of playoffs over a loss to either Auburn or Georgia.
So Alabama is in, so where does that leave us as far as the other 3 playoff spots are concerned?

There are a total of 6 teams that currently control their own destiny, meaning if they win out then they are in. Miami, Clemson, Oklahoma, Wisconsin, Auburn and Georgia are the 6 teams vying for 3 remaining playoff spots, if they win out then they punch their ticket but if they lose than they are all but out of it, and a few teams may end up playing each other in what could amount to elimination games. Miami vs Clemson is set for the ACC title game, and there’s a possibility that Auburn vs. Georgia could meet in the SEC title game, so championship weekend could shape up to be a playoff weekend in itself.

Miami is the team that potentially has a “get out of losing a game” free card, but only if they lose to Clemson in the ACC title game. Losing to Virginia or Pitt could take destiny out of their hands, losing to either of those teams then following it up with a loss to Clemson and they are eliminated. The committee was skeptical of the Hurricanes up until the past 2 weeks, and after handily beating Virginia Tech and Notre Dame they have won their respect so Miami losing a game would not be as damaging as the other teams that control their destiny.

Clemson on the other hand, has to win out or else they are at the mercy of how other teams’ fare . They face the Citadel(haha ok then), at South Carolina in the Palmetto State rivalry and then Miami in the ACC title game, and while Tigers fans probably don’t want to hear this, Clemson’s only shot at losing a game and still making the playoffs is a loss to South Carolina. If they lose to the Citadel then they fall too far to make up the ground and if they lose to Miami in the ACC title game then the committee won’t be selecting a 2 loss team that didn’t win their conference. So Clemson needs to win out to ensure their spot, but if they lose to South Carolina then beat Miami to become ACC champs, then they still have a shot.

Georgia is somewhat in the same boat as Clemson is, but they need to tread very carefully these next two games. After their 40-17 loss to Auburn, the committee dropped them from #1 all the way to #7, so needless to say there’s now some skepticism. Another loss likely takes them out of the playoff race, but winning the SEC title might be enough to salvage their chances and get a playoff spot. The SEC championship is a must though, if Georgia beats both Kentucky and Georgia Tech but then loses to either Alabama or Auburn in the SEC title game, then they are out.

The other 3, Oklahoma, Wisconsin and Auburn, are all in a win out or be out situation.
Auburn has a shot to be the first ever 2 loss team to make the playoff. If they beat Alabama then go to the SEC championship game and beat Georgia(again) then there's no way that the committee can leave them out despite the 2 losses on their schedule. But at the same time, one loss the rest of the way and they are done so they would need to run the table and beat UL-Monroe, Alabama and then Georgia in order to get in.

Oklahoma has to run the table, because the committee has tipped their hands at how they feel about the Big 12. Aside from Oklahoma, only TCU and Oklahoma State remain in the top 25 so the Big 12 is not well represented at all, which puts Oklahoma in a must win situation despite only having 1 loss currently. Fortunately, Oklahoma has 2 very winnable games left in regular season with Kansas and West Virginia on their schedule and will likely be facing either TCU or Oklahoma State in the Big 12 championship game, 2 teams that they've already beaten. The opportunity is right there for them to take advantage of, but they have to take care of business or no playoffs for them.

As for Wisconsin, they are currently undefeated but sitting outside the top 4 playoff rankings. Their lack of schedule strength is what is holding them back, a 7-3 Northwestern team is their best win on the season. If they lose just 1 game then do not expect the committee to show mercy on them, they'll be dropped far enough that they won't be able to climb back up in time. Only possible chance for them to sustain a loss and make the playoffs would be for them to lose to Michigan but then beat Minnesota and win the Big Ten championship against Ohio State or Penn State, but even then it's a long shot.

This is the situation with Wisconsin and why I haven't given them much credit and still have them at #7 in my top 10 ballot, it's not so much their lack of schedule strength as it is their lack of impressive wins. I don't fault Wisconsin for their schedule for the most part, they can only control their non-conference schedule so the fact that the Big Ten schedule rotation got them to avoid Ohio State, Penn State and Michigan State while getting Michigan at home along with the B1G West being down right now is not on Wisconsin. The problem that I have with Wisconsin is that when they play these bad teams, they aren't really showing that dominance the other teams show when they play bad teams. 33-24 to Northwestern, 38-17 to Nebraska, 17-9 to Purdue, 38-13 to Maryland and 24-10 to Illinois doesn't jump out as a team that can take on an Alabama or Clemson and put up a fight for the national title. Their opportunity to show it is coming though, if they can run the table and end up 13-0 in a power 5 conference then there's no chance of them being left out.

Then there are a few teams that are still alive in the playoff hunt, but need to win out plus get some help in order to make the final 4. Ohio State, Notre Dame, Penn State and USC are all still in the running, but destiny is out of their hands.

Notre Dame might end up being the biggest long shot of the 4 to make the playoffs simply because they do not have a conference championship game. They play Navy this week and Stanford in the regular season finale, then they have to sit back and wait while all other playoff contending teams play the following weekend. The Fighting Irish need to hope that it goes chalk with Alabama, Miami and Oklahoma winning out, Wisconsin to lose a game and not win the Big Ten, and the B1G East winner to lose a regular season game but beat Wisconsin. That’s basically what Notre Dame is up against, so that loss to Miami last Saturday could very well have been a playoff eliminator.

Remember when I said that Notre Dame might be the biggest long shot? Well Penn State just said “hold my beer” on that statement. The Nittany Lions need to win out, but due to the Big Ten tiebreakers, they also need Ohio State to lose both of their games and Michigan State to lose at least 1 of their remaining 2 games. The Problem? Ohio State is hosting Illinois, who is currently a 41 point underdog to the Buckeyes, and Michigan State hosts Maryland and then goes to Rutgers. In that scenario, then Penn State would have 2 conference losses while OSU and MSU would end up with 3, and if then they would either have the tiebreaker with Michigan if the Wolverines beat both Wisconsin and OSU or if Michigan loses to Wisconsin then they would sit alone top the B1G East division. Even after all of that, they would need some chips to fall their way with teams that control their destiny losing. It all starts this weekend though, Penn State needs to be rooting for Illinois big time, because if the 41 point underdog can somehow pull this game off then doors begin to open, but if they lose to Ohio State then that door is slammed shut.

USC is already in their conference championship game, so all they can do is win out by beating UCLA then whoever they face in the Pac-12 title game. The best case scenario is for them to face Washington State, who is currently in a 3 way tie in the North division, so they can avenge one of their 2 losses on the season and make a case to the committee that to not look at the 3 point loss on the road but rather a neutral site win is more indicative of USC. From there they’ll just have to wait it out, hope for some upsets and see how it plays out. They’ll really want Ohio State and Auburn to lose, those 2 schools are ranked the highest of all 2 loss teams so USC will need them to lose in order to jump them in the rankings(Penn State is also ranked higher but a conference championship for USC will leapfrog them over PSU). Right now, all USC can do is win out and use their Pac-12 title as a bargaining chip incase some chaos were to happen.

As for the Ohio State Buckeyes, well let's just say that Ohio State fans are going to be required to do some things that will make them feel a little disgusted about. This is going to be tough for me to write since I am a Buckeyes fan but...here goes...Ohio State needs to be HUGE Alabama Crimson Tide fans the rest of the way. I know, I know, "yuck!" comes to mind here but OSU cannot afford to have 2 teams from the SEC make it so they need Alabama to first knock out Auburn in week 13 then knock out Georgia in the SEC title game. Aside from wanting Alabama to win out, and fortunately this isn't a guaranteed necessity, OSU may also want to pull for Michigan this Saturday against Wisconsin. I'm almost positive that 1 loss eliminates Wisconsin(meaning OSU beating an undefeated Wisconsin team in B1G title game knocks them out), but Wisconsin losing once before the title game and OSU handing them their 2nd loss will remove all doubt. Miami losing once before the ACC title game means that automatically either the Hurricanes or Clemson will suffer the 2nd loss, but if they are still undefeated heading into the ACC title game then they need to beat Clemson. If that happens then Alabama, Miami(or Clemson/Miami winner if Miami loses before ACC title game), Oklahoma and Ohio State are the 4 teams, that's what the Buckeyes need to get in. So Ohio State needs to run the table and win the Big Ten, and root for Alabama(big time), Michigan(possibly) and either Clemson or Miami to be a 2 loss non conference champ along the way.

So there you have it, a complete breakdown of what teams need in order to make the playoffs. The playoff picture is becoming clear, but knowing college football means knowing to expect chaos these next few weeks.

Wednesday, March 1, 2017

Spread Offense: 3 Ways To Improve College Football

By Pat Luhta, @PLuhta

College football is a great product and has gotten even more entertaining now that they've recently added the 4 team playoff, but there's always room for improvement. Right now is a good time to discuss what needs to improve, as we still have many months to go before the college football season starts back up.

1. EXPAND THE PLAYOFFS TO 6 TEAMS

In 2014, many college football fans were just glad that there was finally playoffs in the sport instead of just a championship game. Now that we've gone through 3 years of it, it's time to tweak it just a smidge by adding 2 teams. Let it work the same way the NFL's conference playoffs work, where the top 2 seeds get a bye week while the 3 seed plays the 6 seed and the 4 seed plays the 5 seed. Let's also follow the NFL model with the top seed playing the lowest seed in the next round in case there's an upset in the 1st round, giving them the best chance to advance to the title game.

I know that controversy breeds ratings and only having 4 teams makes the playoffs very exclusive, but a little expansion to 6 isn't taking all of the controversy away. Regardless of how many teams are in, there will always be talks of what teams didn't get in that should have gotten in. College basketball has 68 teams in their tournament and there's still the "Why didn't this team make it?" talk once they unveil their brackets.

So why 6 teams instead of 8 or 12? Because it's better to take small steps and re-evaluate in a few years of seeing how it works. This doesn't need to be the one and only expansion that college football does to their playoff system, but 4 does not suffice so let's move to the next logical number of teams and go with 6. Adding 2 extra teams and 1 extra week will make this a better system, especially considering that there are 5 major conferences and only 4 spots right now. All power 5 conferences could be represented with a 6 team playoff, not that it should be mandatory that all 5 are represented but it gives the option of them being instead of 1 conference being left out regardless(yes, I am against automatic bids for conference championships.)

3 years of a 4 team playoff, time to expand and make it a 6 team playoff.

2. THE 1ST ROUND OF PLAYOFFS STARTS BOWL SEASON

So we have officially expanded the playoffs to 6 teams, now let'ts get creative with the schedule.

The 2016 bowl season started on December 17th and went through January 2nd, then spotlighted the national championship game a week later. The problem with such a long bowl season isn't so much the amount of games, but the lackluster games that the first week or so has. Getting to the top games seems to drag on and take forever, so here's a perfect way to add some excitement to the start of the bowl season.

The 1st round of the playoffs will start it all off, and will be the only 2 games on that first day. The playoff games between the 3-6 seeds and the 4-5 seeds will be the grand start to it all, played 2 Saturdays after Conference Championship weekend.

This will start off the bowl season with a huge bang, instead of the smaller bowl games that no one is truly paying attention to. It will also align perfectly, as the playoff teams will have 2 weeks to prepare for their game followed by the winners having another 2 weeks to prepare for the semi-finals. Also, the top 2 seeds will have their incentive bonus of receiving the first round bye with the extra rest before needing to prepare for their game.

It also gives everyone something to talk about while we sludge through the smaller bowl games. 2 weeks of build-up for the 1st round of playoff games, followed by 2 weeks of recapping the 1st round and discussions about the upcoming semi-finals will create a bigger, more interested fan base.

3. GET RID OF CONFERENCE DIVISIONS

Honestly, it may not be that only having 4 teams making the playoffs is what causes all the controversy. Instead, it's the unsettling determination of which teams make it is what causes all of the controversy. It's a completely subjective view with a lot of arguments made for numerous teams, so here's a way to eliminate a lot of the murkiness of the selection process.

Eliminate conference divisions!

Conferences have made strides each year in balancing it out more fairly, they've gone from 8 conference games to 9 and have put a stop to teams scheduling FCS schools. This is the next logical step, especially when considering that some conferences have 14 teams so even 9 conference games doesn't give an entire gauge of the best team. The conferences are designed right now to find out who the best team in each division is and have those 2 teams play for the conference championship. That works, unless the two best teams in the conference also happen to be in the same division, which happens every year in at least one conference. So get rid of divisions, stop figuring out who the best team in a division is and find out who the best two teams in the entire conference is and have those two teams play for the conference title.

In 2014, the SEC West had 4 teams ranked in the top 10 at one point, while the SEC East had none. Alabama ultimately won the SEC West division while Missouri took the SEC East, they played an SEC title game that was as forgettable as it was predictable. Alabama won the game 42-13, while Mississippi State and Ole Miss sat at home watching. And before the "well, Missouri had the same record as MSU and a better one than Ole Miss" argument pops up here, that further brings out how pointless it is to have divisions. The SEC West and their 4 ranked teams all had to play each other since that's how the divisions work, Missouri had to play a ranked Georgia team that they lost to and was able to coast the rest of the way.

The lopsided divisions took place in the Big Ten in 2015. The B1G East was the premier division, with Ohio State, Michigan State and Michigan all ranked in the top 15 for majority of the season. Meanwhile, Iowa rolled to an undefeated record by way of only playing 2 ranked teams all season, the highest being #19. They played their division and somehow escaped the landmines by not having any of the top 3 teams in the B1G East on their schedule. There should never be a time where a team is 10-0 in a power conference and there's still debate on if they are any good, but due to the division and schedule, Iowa was being called into question. So they get to go to the B1G championship game to play Michigan State, and it was a good, close game that the Hawkeyes could've won but the whole issue is that so much doubt surrounding if they deserved to go and if they were truly the 2nd best team in the conference.

We'll stick with the Big Ten for a minute here to discuss the issues of 2016. The B1G East yet again was the dominant conference with Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State all finishing in the top 10. They cannibalized each other, with Penn State beating Ohio State, Ohio State beating Michigan and Michigan beating Penn State as the Nittany Lions were the tiebreaker winners and got to represent their division in the Big Ten title game. On the other side, Wisconsin won a B1G West division in which they were the lone ranked team at season's end. While Wisconsin being ranked in top 10 made it look like a good match-up with Penn State, the Badgers did lose 2 conference games. And guess what teams they lost to? That's right, Ohio State and Michigan. So Penn State gets in on a tiebreaker with Ohio State(who beat Wisconsin) and Michigan gets left out despite beating both Penn State and Wisconsin. Maybe if there weren't divisions then we wouldn't have this problem.

Also in 2016, the ACC had 3 teams ranked in the top 13 at the end of the regular season. The dilemma? All 3 were in the Atlantic division. Clemson went to the title game while Florida State and Louisville were both deserving of a rematch as Louisville lost to Clemson by only 6 and Florida State lost to them by just 3. Instead, a Virginia Tech team that beat a whopping 1 ranked team all season(#17 North Carolina) went instead.

This isn't an abnormality, this is something that occurs every single season in at least 1 power conference and will continue to do so as long as conferences keep divisions. Get rid of divisions and start scheduling randomly within the conference, the exception being that rivalry games are still an annual thing and not part of a random rotation. More balance means a greater chance of getting the right 2 teams in the championship games.

Im sure there are many more changes and tweaks that could be added to help the college game. These are just the few major ones that college football should really consider. Let's make the playoff system better, let's do a better job of making sure the right teams get into the playoffs, and in turn it will keep the regular season as meaningful, if not more meaningful.

Thursday, January 5, 2017

Radio Show 1/4/17: On Browns Future, NFL Playoffs, CFB Playoff & More

Thursday, December 8, 2016

Radio Show 12.7.16: On CFB Playoff, Cavs, Klay, Browns/NFL, Gronk, First Albums & Guilty Pleasure Music

Friday, December 2, 2016

Spread Offense 12.2.16: Buy or Sell The Potential College Playoff Teams #CFBPlayoff

By Pat Luhta, @PLuhta

The college football rankings are set to be announced this Sunday. Before then though, we have a weekend of conference championships, some of which could have a major impact on the final rankings and determine who is in or out.

Here, we will take a look at each potential playoff team and give the reasons why we should buy stock in them making the playoffs, along with why would should sell stock in them making the playoffs. There are more than a few teams that have cases to be made, even if they need a little help still, so let's examine them here.

1. Alabama

WHY TO BUY: Alabama is the only undefeated team left in all of the power 5 conferences, and it would take some of epic meltdown in the SEC title game in order for them to not make the playoffs. They don't have to just lose, but lose by an incredible amount along with having some key injuries that could shift the committee's opinion. There's no such thing as a guarantee, but Alabama making the playoffs regardless of the outcome in the SEC title game is as close to a guarantee as there is.

WHY TO SELL: At this point, if someone sells stock in Alabama being a playoff team, then they need to be investigated for insider trading. They must know that some investigation has been launched about Alabama playing with ineligible players this season so they are going to be forced to forfeit their wins and the committee won't want that black cloud in the playoffs. That's the type of scenario that people who sell stock would have to be hoping for, so just play it safe and don't sell.

2. Ohio State

WHY TO BUY: Ohio State is currently ranked #2 and has the best overall resume as far as strength of schedule, wins over top 25 teams and wins over top 10 teams are concerned. Even though they will not be playing for their conference championship, a drop from #2 to #5 seems highly unlikely. No team has ever made the playoffs without winning their conference so there's still some doubt, but it's a pretty safe bet here that the Buckeyes will be in the playoffs.

WHY TO SELL: We are unsure how much emphasis the committee will put on a conference championship, so there's a glimmer of a chance that Ohio State will be penalized for not winning the Big Ten and the committee will overlook them because of it. There's also the big issue of the committee having to decide between them and Penn State if the Nittany Lions win the conference. Ohio State only has 1 loss while Penn State has 2, but a conference title plus being the head to head winner(PSU beat OSU this season) could make up for that 1 loss. To sell stock in OSU, you would have to buy into conference titles being very meaningful to the committee and that Penn State is going to win the Big Ten title on Saturday.

3. Clemson

WHY TO BUY: This one is pretty clear cut, buy stock in Clemson making the playoffs as long as you think that they will beat Virginia Tech on Saturday and win the ACC title. If they do, then they are an absolute lock for the playoffs and could jump to #2 even.

WHY TO SELL: Unsure about Clemson beating Virginia Tech? Thinking that an upset is about to occur? Then selling here is a good idea. If Clemson wins then they are in, but if Clemson loses then they are all but out of it. They would need Washington to also lose their conference title, then be at the mercy of the playoff committee and they choose between the B1G conference winner, Michigan, and Colorado(who would have beaten Washington in Pac-12 title) and even possibly the Oklahoma-Oklahoma State winner for the final 2 entries. There's still a chance to make it if they lose, but they would need a few dominos to fall their way, so if an upset is brewing here then sell stock in Clemson.

4. Washington

WHY TO BUY: This is just like Clemson, win their conference and they are in. The Huskies are sitting at #4 so they seem the most susceptible to be replaced, but they only have 1 loss while all teams behind them have 2 or more. That means that if Washington wins, then they would have to be replaced with a team with 1 more loss than they do, highly unlikely especially since they will be toting a conference title.

WHY TO SELL: This is even easier than Clemson's "sell" scenario, if they lose to Colorado then they are not making the playoffs. The committee doesn't tend to care much for the Pac-12 this season, as shown when Washington, who was undefeated at the time, was originally ranked #5 while a 1 loss Texas A&M team was at #4 when the first batch of playoff ranking came out a 5 weeks ago. Washington loses and they won't have the backdoor scenario that Clemson does, the Pac-12 champ(Colorado) will have a better shot at making it than the Huskies would at that point. So if you really think Colorado will pull this one out then sell all the stock you have of Washington.

5. Michigan

WHY TO BUY: 1 slip up by either Clemson or Washington and the Wolverines might be back in it. It's still risky even if that happens since that loss to Iowa may haunt them here, but they have an excellent case to make the playoffs especially if Washington loses. If the Huskies go down, then Michigan has the head to head win over Colorado and whoever wins the B1G(Wisconsin or Penn State) and all teams in the running would have 2 losses. It would appear in that case that Michigan could slide in to that 4th seed and make the playoffs.

WHY TO SELL: There seems to be a very good chance that championship week goes chalk and Clemson and Washington both win, then the final 4 of Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson and Washington is all but finalized. The other scenario is the B1G champ, namely Wisconsin, could hop over Michigan even if either Clemson or Washington lose. The main gripe will be that the Wolverines have beaten both competitors in the B1G title game, but the champ gaining a conference title and top 10 win to add to their resume could vault them over. Usually that 5 seed is first in line if one of the top 4 does falter, but losing 2 of their last 3 games puts Michigan in a spot where they could also get leapfrogged. This really is a 50/50 scenario on whether to buy or sell here, safe call is to sell but it isn't much of a gamble to buy here.

6. Wisconsin

WHY TO BUY: Here is where that pendulum swings from"mostly buying" to "likely selling", especially here with Wisconsin. They first would need to beat Penn State on Saturday. Next, they would need Clemson and/or Washington to lose. Then, they would still hope for the committee to choose them over Michigan since they aren't going to choose 3 teams from one conference(Ohio State would already be in.) In order to buy stock, you have to feel fairly confident that all 3 take place, and all 3 are high risks so buy with extreme caution.

WHY TO SELL: Because the 3 events that need to take place for them to make the playoffs is a long shot. It will be a struggle to beat Penn State even, let alone banking on Clemson or Washington to get upset in their conference title game. Then if the Badgers pass those 2 phases, jumping up over a team that beat them in the regular season is also a fairly big risk. I can see a reason to hold onto some stock just incase this happens since it would be a pretty big payout, but the smart play here is to sell stock in Wisconsin.

7. Penn State

WHY TO BUY: Though the Nittany Lions are sitting 3 spots away from the final playoff spot, they actually have a decent case if they can take care of Wisconsin on Saturday. Penn State would need to win along with Washington and Clemson winning as well. This opens the debate between them and Ohio State, who Penn State beat this season. They may need to do some politicking in order really drive their point across, but a 2 loss B1G champion could end up in the 4th spot over a 1 loss team due to the head to head result. Again, not knowing what the committee truly looks for when mapping out which teams should make the playoffs, but a win along with some help from Clemson and Washington could push PSU into the final playoff spot.

WHY TO SELL: Penn State is currently the underdog against Wisconsin, though it's a slim margin. But if they do not beat Wisconsin then they have no shot at the playoffs, so if you believe that the Badgers will win then go ahead and sell here. The Nittany Lions' overall body of work could be an issue for them as well even if they do win the Big Ten championship. Penn State has a win over Ohio State, but that is their only win against top 25 teams and they actually have a losing overall record against the top 25(1-2.) So while they could argue about their championship and head to head win over Ohio State, the Buckeyes overall have a much better body of work which would lead many to believe that they will get in over Penn State.

8. Colorado

WHY TO BUY: Only reason to buy stock in Colorado being a playoff team is if you enjoy rooting for extreme chaos to occur, because that's what it would take for the Buffaloes to make it. Colorado would need to beat Washington in the Pac-12 title game, would need Clemson to take an L in the ACC title game, and would need the B1G championship game to look like a complete dumpster fire and then they may have a shot as long as they don't get jumped by the winner of the Big 12 or even a Clemson team that lost to not fall behind them. The odds are stacked against them for sure, and they may be better off just playing spoiler to Washington's season rather than aim for the playoffs.

WHY TO SELL: Colorado would need somewhat of a miracle to make the playoffs, and it's never a good idea to hold onto stock that is based on the premise of a miracle. Everything could go Colorado's way this weekend and they still may not find themselves higher than 6th, let alone all the way up to 4th.

9. Oklahoma

WHY TO BUY: You're buying here because you think the scenario laid out in Colorado's path to the playoff will happen, but believe that the Sooners will jump them. Washington and Clemson both lose and the B1G title game is an unwatchable mess, all with the assumption that Oklahoma will beat Oklahoma State this weekend as well. And if you are curious why the Big Ten needs to have a terrible title game in order for either CU or OU to get in, it's because the committee will not take 3 Big Ten teams in the final 4 and neither team wants to compare/contrast resumes with Michigan. So if the B1G title game is poorly played, then Alabama, Ohio State and Michigan all get in and Oklahoma may have a better resume than Clemson, Colorado and B1G champ. Again, this is what needs to fall into place and we are talking a complete crapshoot even if it does happen.

WHY TO SELL: Needing to beat a top 10 team along with banking on the outcomes of 2 heavy favorites to both lose and then cross fingers that Oklahoma's resume somehow is well received enough to jump from 9th to 4th is comparable to playing Russian roulette with all 6 bullets in the chamber. There's a reason why Oklahoma is still sitting at 9th even though they are riding an 8 game winning streak and is undefeated in conference play, that should be telltale on how the committee views the Sooners' body of work.

10. Oklahoma State

WHY TO BUY: Mike Gundy already has a famous speech from a postgame press conference where he reminded everyone how old he was and why he doesn't read the newspaper. If Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma, then Gundy will need to deliver another memorable speech that resonates loudly with the committee to the point that they are willing to erase an Oklahoma State loss from existence. Buying stock here means to buy into the Cowboys winning and Gundy then reminding the entire world that they lost 1 game on a play that shouldn't have occurred, that Oklahoma State won the game and due to a referee blunder, the opposing team(Central Michigan) was undeservedly awarded one untimed down in which they managed an improbable hail mary lateral for the game winning touchdown. If that game is called correctly then Oklahoma State is now 11-1 on the season and deserves to be right there with Ohio State, Clemson and Washington as the 1 loss teams in playoff discussion. They also would need Clemson or Washington to lose and flipping a loss into a win in the minds' of the committee is a tough sell, but if you buy stock in them as a playoff team then you're buying Mike Gundy's ability to sell water to a camel.

WHY TO SELL: When a team is given less than a 1% chance of making the playoffs based on computer generated analysis that combs through every possible outcome this weekend, it's best to sell their playoff stock.

Thursday, December 1, 2016

Radio Show 11.30.16: Buckeyes, CFB Playoff, Best QBs, Most Valued Team, Russell Westbrook & More

Friday, November 25, 2016

Spread Offense 11.25.16: Top 5 College Rivalry Weekend Games

By Pat Luhta, @PLuhta

So a couple of months ago, I attended a concert in which Slayer was one of the bands performing. In between songs about midway through their set, lead singer Tom Araya talked to the crowd and said "every single one of our songs is a love song." Now, if you know Slayer then you understand the confusion most of us had. If you don't know them then let's just say that they are a loud, head banging type thrash metal band that centers around some pretty dark lyrics. He then continued by saying that "they are considered love songs to him because they love making music and playing it for us, and we are here tonight because we love hearing music."

That's what rivalry week is, even though it's referred to as "hate week." This week is about hating your rival, but also about embracing the spirit of what this week is all about and having fun with it. You hate your rival but there's nothing to hate about this week, instead of "hate week" it's really "love to hate week."

This year is no different, and many rivalry games have a lot on the line in this penultimate weekend of college football. Though we are 2 Saturdays away from knowing who is in or out of the playoffs, most playoff potential teams have a "lose and you're out" situation for them, essentially making this a playoff game.

These 5 rivalry games are especially meaningful to not only their respective schools, but also have the most meaning going forward as far as the playoffs are concerned.

5. #13 Auburn at #1 Alabama - Nov 26th, 3:30pm
The Iron Bowl is traditionally one of the best rivalries in college football, though this year there really isn't much on the line.

Alabama has clinched the SEC West and is almost assured a playoff spot barring a loss here and a loss in the SEC title game. They won't take this game lightly though with bragging rights on the line here against their bitter rival.

Auburn is looking for the upset here as there is still a shot that they could get into a New Year's 6 bowl game. A win would also put some doubt into people's minds on Alabama being a playoff team, and would at least set up Alabama in a must win game in the SEC title game. Winning this rivalry game and pinning their rival's backs up against the wall is more than enough incentive for the Tigers here.

4. South Carolina at #4 Clemson - Nov 26th, 7:30pm
This Palmetto state rivalry game will be about a big underdog on the road attempting to play spoiler.

South Carolina's season has been underwhelming under 1st year Head Coach Will Muschamp. They are 6-5 on the season, but have a bit of momentum going for them as they have won 4 of their last 5 games. They look to capitalize on that momentum and end their regular season on a huge positive note with a win over their non-conference rival, which would knock Clemson out of playoff contention.

Clemson knows what's at stake here and they know they are facing a rival with nothing to lose. The Tigers are already in the ACC title game but they are just 1 loss away from falling out of the playoffs, losing to their rival and watching their playoff hopes slip away would just add insult to injury.

Will Clemson take a step closer to the playoffs or will South Carolina step up and knock them out?

3. #15 Florida at #14 Florida State - Nov 26th 8pm
2 weeks ago, the college football playoff rankings were turned upside down when the #2, #3 and #4 ranked teams all lost. That opened up a glimmer of hope for the Florida Gators, who may somehow control their own destiny now. Florida does have 2 losses, but a backloaded schedule of LSU, Florida State and Alabama means that by winning out then they could backdoor their way into the college football playoffs.

They were #23 at the time, and after a win over #16 LSU, they have now jumped to #15. Heading to their in-state rival will be step 2 in order to keep hope alive, and a big win here could vault them up into the top 10 heading in championship week.

Florida State will not be headed to the playoffs this season, but this is always a huge rivalry game for them and they could still find themselves in a New Years 6 bowl with a win here. A loss here though and they won't be playing in a prestigious bowl so they will need this game in a big way.

Florida needs this to have any chance at getting into playoff discussion while Florida State looks to cap off a regular season with a win as they head to a big bowl game.

2. #5 Washington at #23 Washington State - Nov 25th, 3:30pm
A few short years ago, both teams came into this game with winless records. Now, they come into this game with the winner advancing to the Pac-12 title game.

Washington State started the season off 0-2, including a loss to an FCS school. They then rattled off 8 straight victories before having that streak snapped last weekend by Colorado. While they won't be in the playoffs this season, a win and Pac-12 title berth would be huge for this growing program.

Washington has only one blemish on their schedule, a loss to USC, and have playoff aspirations still as a win here and in the Pac-12 title game could secure them a spot in the top 4. A loss though in either and they are eliminated from contention.

The Apple Cup decides the winner of the Pac-12 North division, both teams entering the game with a 7-1 conference record. Washington State can get a big program boost while knocking their rival out of the playoffs, Washington can continue their road to the playoffs with a big win and Pac-12 title berth.

1. #3 Michigan Wolverines at #2 Ohio State Buckeyes - Nov 26th, 12pm
The biggest rivalry has the biggest playoff implications, starting with the loser being eliminated from contention.

Michigan has a fairly simple playoff road, win this game and they are in the B1G title game. Win the title game and they are a lock for the playoffs, simply put, Michigan is one of the few teams that controls their own destiny.

Ohio State has a bit more murky of a path, as a win does not guarantee them a spot in the B1G title game. They need a win plus a Penn State loss, but if they win and PSU also wins then that will open up a major discussion on if a team that didn't win their conference should still go to the playoffs. They will be at the mercy of the playoff committee, and while it seems the majority of people feel that they will be in regardless, it all depends on how other teams' season finish and they may end up sliding from #2 to #5 and miss the playoffs.

Ask either team though and they'll tell you that it's all about this game, the playoff scenarios and next opponents do not matter to them right now. This game is just as big, if not bigger, than a playoff game.

10 years ago we were given a #1 vs. #2 matchup that ended up being the game of the century, this year has shades of that game in the making. Winner keeps an inside track to the playoffs, loser has to pine over this loss for a year while being eliminated from the playoff discussion.

Thursday, November 17, 2016

Radio Show 11.16.16: On Browns, Tony Romo & Cowboys, Klay Thompson, CFB Playoff & Fact or Fiction