Showing posts with label On Deck Circle. Show all posts
Showing posts with label On Deck Circle. Show all posts

Tuesday, August 1, 2017

On Deck Circle 8/1/17: MLB Trade Deadline


By Pat Luhta, @PLuhta


MLB's trade deadline has come and gone, with some big pieces moving to title contenders along with some smaller moves made that could turn out to be just as important to teams.

The big news of the day centered around 2 starting pitchers, with the Yankees acquiring Sonny Gray from the A's and the Dodgers going down to the wire to land Yu Darvish from the Rangers at the last minute. The Yankees were linked to Gray for a few weeks and after the A's tried playing the field a bit, the two teams were able to reach an agreement. Oakland got a boat load in return, both Jorge Mateo and Dustin Fowler are top prospects that will bolster the A's farm system and the Yankees not only get Sonny Gray but didn't have to give up Clint Frazier or Gleyber Torres in the deal.
So this deal works out great for both teams, the Yankees are entrenched in a 3 way division race right now and did not give up either of their top 2 prospects while the A's get quality prospects as they look to reload their farm system during this rebuilding period. The Yankees, now with Sonny Gray and Jaime Garcia (who they got from the Twins earlier) gives them enough pitching to make a run for the World Series this season.



When the clock struck 4pm, no deal for Yu Darvish was announced and many assumed that the Rangers got cold feet and did not trade him. Shortly after, the news broke that Darvish did in fact get traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers for 3 minor league prospects.
This is similar to the Yankees/Gray deal but even better really, the Dodgers kept their top 3 prospects and only traded 1 (Willie Calhoun) that ranked in their top 10. Alex Verdugo, Walker Buehler and Yadier Alvarez were not in the deal, the Dodgers kept their word that they would not trade them and still found a deal that got this trade complete. The Rangers wanted Verdugo in this deal, but Darvish's no-trade clause and dwindling starting pitching market hindered them greatly in finding a deal similar to what the A's received for Gray. Their hands were tied and it was either trade him to the Dodgers or don't trade him at all, they held out as long as they could but took the Dodgers' best offer as the trade deadline struck. MLB's best team, with a 74-31 record just added Yu Darvish to go along with Clayton Kershaw (once healthy) and Alex Wood, it's clear what the goal is for Los Angeles this season.

And watch out for the Kansas City Royals now, this team has been on a roll as of late and patched up some problem areas before the trading deadline. Their main acquisition was OF Melky Cabrera, who can provide some pop in the lineup and will be an upgrade in the field. A week ago, they also bolstered their pitching staff in a multi-player trade with the San Diego Padres, receiving starter Trevor Cahill and relief pitchers Ryan Buchter and Brandon Mauer. The deals haven't been a big splash but they are adding the necessary bits and pieces for a playoff run, they currently are the 2nd wildcard team with Tampa Bay close behind and they also trail the Indians for the AL Central lead by just 2 games.

Other trades that don't have that "sizzle" but could be a huge benefit to teams down the stretch include the Houston Astros acquiring Francisco Liriano. Liriano will be used out of the bullpen but could also make some spot starts as well which may be needed. The Astros starting pitching is starting to unravel a bit, Lance McCullers has been getting knocked around and is now headed to the DL and Dallas Kuechel was roughed up in his first start back from his DL stint. So Liriano could be in play here big time for the Astros as someone who helps keep the ship afloat while the pitching works itself out.

The Cubs got a little better as well, adding C Alex Avila and reliever Justin Wilson from the Tigers. The Tigers did not find a suitor for Justin Verlander as his contract and no-trade clause were deal breakers, but they did clean house a little bit by trading J,D. Martinez, Alex Avila(who is the son of Tigers' GM Al Avila, so yes he traded his own son) and Justin Wilson.

Jonathon Lucroy was on the move again at the trade deadline as he is headed to Colorado. Last season, he was initially traded to the Cleveland Indians but after not receiving a guarantee that he would be their catcher, he used his no-trade clause to block the deal. He was then later dealt to the Texas Rangers and now that the Rangers aren't contenders, he was once again traded to a contender.

Another under the radar deal would be the Boston Red Sox added Addison Reed. The Red Sox already have Craig Kimbrel as their closer so adding Reed to be the setup man puts them in a real good position come playoff time, when pitching really takes center stage.

So there's the run down on some of the bigger trades that have happened over the past couple days. A lot of contending teams bolstered their roster in order to make a run for the playoffs and at the World Series. There's still a waiver trade deadline coming up where some pieces will be moved, but this deadline is where teams really position themselves for October. If you are a fan of any of the teams mentioned above as getting better, then you should feel real good about how the trade deadline deals went and should be excited for how the remainder of the season should go.

Monday, July 24, 2017

On Deck Circle 7/24/17: Solving The Indians Starting Rotation


By Pat Luhta, @PLuhta


Going into the season, starting pitching for the Indians seemed like a huge strength of the team. Corey Kluber is a top 3 pitcher in the AL, Carlos Carrasco could be the ace of many other staffs, Danny Salazar has been very solid for the past 2 seasons and Trevor Bauer and Josh Tomlin have been serviceable pitchers for end of rotation.

This season, Kluber and Carrasco are still performing well and to their norm, the others though…not so much. A team that went to the World Series last season and has expectations of being there again this season is currently underperforming and clinging onto a division lead in which they should be running away with and that is falling on the shoulders of the starting pitching.

So now with the trade deadline approaching and Danny Salazar returning from the disabled list, the big question is what the Indians should do with the starting rotation. Salazar’s return means that there are 6 starting pitchers on the roster so there will be one odd man out now and even then, most aren’t overly optimistic that going with the current starters on the roster will be enough to capture the AL pennant. So where do the Indians go from here and who should be the 5 starting pitchers?

First, let’s not even bother with talking about Kluber or Carrasco. Those 2 are the top 2 starters and won’t be moving at all from the rotation, so those spots are set.

Next comes Mike Clevinger, who started out on fire in triple A and has carried over his pitching performance to the big leagues. Clevinger is a smaller sample size than the others with only 12 starts this season, but his 2.73 ERA and 1.12 WHIP puts him right up there with Kluber and Carrasco and is a solid #3 starter. Him being the “new guy” with less time in the MLB than the others shouldn’t matter, he’s outperforming the other candidates for the 3 spot and should remain as the guy there, would be a huge mistake if experience trumps production in this case.

Before we continue on about current Indians pitchers, here’s where the potential for a trade comes in to play. I know many fans will be upset if the Indians do not make a move for a starting arm before the deadline(July 31st), but the reality of it is they are most likely not going to be...

Why? A number of reasons.

The first being that there’s not really a big market for available starting pitchers. The Rangers are shopping Yu Darvish but he comes with a monster price tag and is a rent-a-player, Indians won’t be re-signing him considering he will be an 100+ million dollar contract likely and the tribe will have their hands full with Francisco Lindor this offseason. The Rays would be insane to trade Chris Archer with the way he’s performed along with his money and years friendly contract, the Pirates just sprung right back into division contention so Gerrit Cole is off the trading block, so we are looking at Sonny Gray as the best available target out there as far as pitching goes.

Sonny Gray is a good pitcher, but that’s it. He would be a solid upgrade over whoever is the #4 starter, but he’s not an ace of a staff or anything as his 3.66 ERA and 1.18 WHIP shows. The biggest issue with trading for Gray is his price, especially when considering what the Cubs recently gave up for Jose Quintana (who Gray is better than.) The Cubs shelled out a top 10 prospect in Eloy Jimenez, a top 70 prospect in Dylan Cease and 2 other prospects for Quintana, so if the A’s are looking for that type of deal then the Indians most likely will not be in the running. They gutted the farm system a bit last season with the acquisition of Andrew Miller, and right now only have 3 prospects in the top 100. So Indians fans need to ask themselves if Sonny Gray is worth giving up both Francisco Mejia and Triston McKenzie for, or McKenzie and Bobby Bradley for, any combination of 2 of the top 3 prospects being involved in this trade.

Big deals in consecutive years are damaging to the farm, it’s just a matter of Sonny Gray being that guy that puts Cleveland over the top, like Miller was last season, and if not then they should pass on the deal.

For now, we will stick with who the Indians have in order to fill out the remainder of the pitching rotation, and what player should occupy the #4 spot. While he possibly may be having the worst season off all the starters on this team, this is where Danny Salazar fits in. He’s the best overall pitcher of what’s left and the 2 previous seasons his ERA has been under 4.00, so I am willing to give the benefit of the doubt to him based on his track record. He’s just getting back from the DL and we can revisit this after his next few starts but right now, he has the best chance of turning it around and pitching well down the stretch.

So that leaves us with Trevor Bauer and Josh Tomlin for that 1 final spot. This is a tough call really, both have pitched poorly overall this season but Trevor Bauer should remain a starting pitcher, sending Josh Tomlin to the bullpen. This seems like it would be an unpopular pick as Bauer has fallen out of graces with many fans, partly due to his political views and overall attitude, but there are a few reasons why he should be the 5th starter over Josh Tomlin.

One of the worst things a relief pitcher can do is come out of the bullpen and walk guys, especially since there will be times he’ll come on in relief with men on base already. Bauer leads the team in walks and has a higher WHIP than Tomlin, I’d trust Tomlin to come out of the bullpen and shut down an inning before Bauer would, especially considering how different of a change it would be for hitters if Tomlin were to relieve Kluber or Carrasco. When splitting hairs over pitchers with similar stats, how they fit in to the bullpen should definitely be a factor, and Tomlin would make a better pitcher coming on in relief than Bauer would. He could easily smooth over the rockiness of Brian Shaw, where Bauer might just be another Brian Shaw out of the bullpen.

There’s also their overall stuff, and I know we’ve been hearing about Bauer having a ton of talent and just not producing but I’ll take a “hit or miss” 5th starter with the potential to throw a gem over someone with just decent stuff. We’re not asking either to be a top of the line starter, so the risk-reward with Bauer should come into play here.

And finally, and most importantly here, the mental aspect and personality is in play here. I don’t want to make this sound like Tomlin should be “demoted” for this while also making it seem that Bauer should just get what he wants, but Tomlin is one of those guys that wants to do whatever is best for the team and is willing to help out in any way that he can. Bauer, from the way he talks and portrays himself, doesn’t seem to be that type of player. The worry of sending him to the bullpen could cause a big rift overall, can see him being upset to the point where he blows up and it affects his pitching to the point where he is rendered useless and whether fans like it or not, Bauer will be on the roster this season and won’t be DFA’d or traded (unless the Indians can make him a part of a Sonny Gray deal) so the Indians need to find use out of him. Tomlin would take it in stride and say that he’ll do whatever is asked of him, it makes more sense just to keep things on an even keel here to move Tomlin around while keeping Bauer where he’s at.

So that’s what it should look like going forward barring any trades. Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Mike Clevinger, Danny Salazar and Trevor Bauer as the starting rotation and Josh Tomlin in the bullpen. When you look at it that way, if Clevinger remains pitching the way he has and Salazar finds his groove and gets back to 2016 form, this rotation may be good enough for a pennant run after all.

Monday, July 17, 2017

On Deck Circle 7/17/17: 5 Bold Predictions For The MLB's Second Half


By Pat Luhta, @PLuhta


Baseball season is now past the unofficial midway point now that the All-Star game and festivities are complete. As the MLB season is back underway, we can look at what’s ahead for the 2nd half of the season and make some predictions on what’s to come. So let’s not only make some predictions, but let’s go out on a limb and make some real bold ones here. These predictions may not seem likely but there’s no telling what could happen with this many games left to play still, so let’s jump right into it here with 5 bold predictions for the 2nd half of the MLB season.


1. The Yankees will not make the playoffs – So I’ll get started with a bold-lite prediction here and call the Yankees and non-playoff team. The Yankees got off to a hot start in April and lead the division through May and are now in the playoffs as a wildcard team so they’ve been a playoff team since the beginning of the season. They are just 6-18 since June 13th though and are tapering off rapidly, Boston has not only surpassed them for the division lead but the Tampa Bay Rays have also caught up to them and went into the All-Star break tied for the top wildcard spot. With the Twins, Royals, Angels and Rangers all within 3 games of the wildcard spot, it’s completely feasible that the Yankees miss out on the playoffs this season if they continue this type of play.


2. Carlos Correa or Jose Altuve will win AL MVP – This bold prediction is based off the previous prediction. Right now, Aaron Judge is the AL MVP and it’s not close, he has this all locked up right now. If the Yankees do miss the playoffs though and Aaron Judge hits a rookie wall, then that leaves the MVP up for debate. The Astros were an impressive 60-29 at All-Star break and on pace for roughly 110 wins this season, if they can win that many games then someone on the Astros will get big time consideration. Carlos Correa and Jose Altuve are the top 2 candidates and very similar in production, it will be a close call in which they will split votes and one will end up as the AL MVP.


3. The St. Louis Cardinals will win the NL Central – A 3rd place team that is 2 games under .500 and 5.5 games out of 1st place at all-star break, it would seem unlikely that any team under those circumstances would make a run at the division. But the Cardinals though have the benefit of playing a division that is still up for grabs, not sold on the Brewers yet and the Cubs are still a mess even with the acquisition of Jose Quintana(which the White Sox fleeced them in, btw.) The Cardinals’ bats need to wake up a bit and they can make up ground in no time, their pitching is amongst the best in the league and any team that has good pitching will have a shot at the postseason. Pitching stays where it is and bats heat up a bit, and the division is all theirs to win.


4. Pittsburgh Pirates will be biggest sellers as trade deadline approaches – Everyone right now is assuming that the Oakland A’s will be the biggest sellers, but let’s not be too sure about that. The A’s have Sonny Gray that will almost certainly be dealt and they will have other available assets such as Yonder Alonso and Khris Davis to deal as well. But the Pirates have more players that are worth trading for and being 7 games out of the division, it’s time to start dealing them. While I do not think Andrew McCutcheon will be traded, players like Gerrit Cole, Ivan Nova, Josh Harrison and Francisco Cervelli could all be on the move. Cole and Nova especially now that the market for starting pitching has been set with the trade of Jose Quintana to the Cubs, pitching will cost buyers a lot in order to deal so Pittsburgh can get younger real quick by trading either or both pitchers.


5. Bryce Harper and Clayton Kershaw will win the NL triple crown - In batting, the triple crown is when a batter leads the league in batting average, RBI's and home runs. This is one of the rarest feats in baseball, Miguel Cabrera accomplished it in 2012 but before then it was Carl Yastrzemski in 1967 and to stack the deck even more against Bryce Harper, there hasn't been a triple crown winner in the NL since 1937. That ends this year, Harper is currently 2nd in the NL in batting average, tied for 3rd in RBI's and tied for 7th in home runs(only 4 back of the current leader.) He is within striking distance of them all and will end up leading the National League in all 3 come season's end. The triple crown in pitching is a bit more common, when a pitcher leads the league in wins, ERA and strikeouts. Clayton Kershaw accomplished this once before, back in 2011 and he is primed to do it again this season.
He leads the league in wins and is 2nd in both ERA and strikeouts and is extremely close to being 1st in all 3. Max Scherzer has a 2.10 ERA while Kershaw has a 2.18 and Scherzer has 173 K's while Kershaw has 159, that slim margin is what is keeping Kershaw from currently leading in all 3. A batter and pitcher winning the triple crown in the same league in the same year has not happened since 1934 and has only happened once in the National League(back in 1884, I'm sure we all remember that), but this year we will get to witness a rare phenomenon as both Bryce Harper and Clayton Kershaw will be triple crown winners.

Thursday, July 13, 2017

On Deck Circle 7/13/17: My Retraction Article


By Pat Luhta, @PLuhta


So as some of you may have seen, I made a huge mistake in my previous article on who should start the All-Star game. In it, I stated that one of the reasons why I disagree that the fans should be 100% in charge of voting for the all-star starters is that the game determines home field advantage in the World Series, so I want the best, most deserving players in the game instead of biased voting based on fan favorites. The huge gaffe there was that the All-Star game doesn’t determine home field advantage anymore, they reversed that ruling over the past offseason and this was the 1st All-Star game since the ruling.

Whoops! Not sure how I forgot all about that, especially considering how glad I was that the MLB got rid of that ridiculous rule, but sure enough I totally whiffed on this one and the article was posted with that part still in there. It has since been edited, so some may not have even seen it depending on when they checked out the article, but some definitely read it before and caught that I made a big gaffe there.

So after I initially started kicking myself for messing that all up and stopped being so upset with myself, I figured it was best to not only own it, but to have some fun with it. While I may not like that it happened, it still did so instead of dwelling on it, it’s better to laugh it off and keep moving on. It does bring me back to another time that this happened with me, so figure this would be a good time to share a story about it.

Back many, many years ago, I was set on being a sports journalist. I was fresh out of high school and was ready to pursue that career, so I figured I’d take a stab at writing my first ever sports article. To show how long ago this was, this was back when the NFL only had 3 divisions of 5 teams in each conference since the Houston Texans weren’t around yet (their first season was when the division re-alignment occurred.)

Back then, the Green Bay Packers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers were in the same division, and at the time the Bucs had this incredible losing streak when the game was played in 32 degree weather (freezing line) or below. I don’t know the exact stat off the top of my head anymore but they were a ghastly 0 wins in their last 30+ games in that kind of cold and every time they had to travel to Lambeau or some other cold city with an outdoor stadium, a lot of the headlines were on this dubious streak. So here we are during football season, the Buccaneers are playing the Packers in a regular season game, so I check the weather forecast in Green Bay and it’s just above that 32 degree mark, so I thought it would be the perfect thing to write about.

My first article is underway, I spend the time talking about how most attribute Tampa Bay’s cold weather woes to the fact that they practice and play their home games in Florida, and how it’s extra tough to overcome this adversity when the Packers are so tough at home and in the cold and how this would be such a big moral win for Tampa if they could get a win here as they had playoff aspirations and so on. I talked about how all eyes would be on the forecast, how it currently was above the freezing line but could change as it gets closer to game time and how the game could start above but get colder and dip below as the game went on and how that would affect the Buccaneers during the game. Basically, the whole idea behind my article was set on that temperature and all that could be in play depending on how cold it was for that game.

So I finish it up, proofread it a few times to fix any grammatical errors and I’m ready to publish it. I was beaming with pride over finishing my first ever article and thought that was was a first big step for me, so I put myself out there in hopes of garnering some positive feedback and I post my article on the couple message boards that I frequented back then. Anxiously waiting to read my first comment as the little notification popped up that someone had replied, I go to read what was said and let’s just say that I was a bit surprised at the comment.


“Hey good article… but the game this week is in Tampa Bay.”


I checked and sure enough, Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers. My whole entire article down the drain as the temperature in Tampa Bay was a mild 80 something with no chance of it dropping 50 degrees before game time(darn!). Embarrassed a bit at the time, I look back on it now with a big laugh and any time I’ve written article since, I’ve made sure to double and triple check where the game is being played before I continue on.

So back to my All-Star article, it happens. Doesn’t mean I don’t strive for perfection but at the same time, mistakes are going to be made and I’m sure I’ll look back on this in the same way that I look back on that “temperature” article. I’ll learn from it and laugh about it at my own expense, this isn’t the first time I made a huge mistake that screwed up part or all of my article and I’m sure it won’t be the last. Thanks for reading.

Tuesday, July 11, 2017

On Deck Circle 7/11/17: Who Should Be The All-Star Starters


By Pat Luhta, @PLuhta


The All-Star game starters for both leagues were announced on July 2nd. The fans are the ones that get to vote on the All-Star starters, with the AL and NL managers filling out the reserves and the pitching staff. While it is a fun little gimmick that the MLB has here by letting the fans vote for the starters, it also is a flawed system that leads to undeserving or injured players making it as starters. Fanbases from each team cram their ballots with their biased voting, choosing their favorite players on their favorite teams instead of who deserves it the most. That's how we end up with players making the starting lineup that shouldn't actually be there, this especially happens to players in big market cities since the bigger the fanbase means the more votes they receive.

The All-Star fan voting is here and we will take a look here and see what the fans got right and what they got wrong. Here is the what the All-Star lineups in each league should look like:




CATCHER - Who made it: Salvador Perez

Who should have made it: Gary Sanchez

Perez got this one on name value and that he's had 80-100 at-bats more than Gary Sanchez and Alex Avila(who would be my 2nd choice at Catcher.) While Perez has more HR's than Sanchez, 16 to 13, Sanchez leads him in batting average, OBP, slugging, and OPS while having a better WAR. Salvatore Perez' on base percentage is a incredibly low .320, which puts him 8th in the AL of catchers with at least 130 at bats. Sanchez is having the better year, gets on base more and has similar power, he should be getting the All-Star start at Catcher.


1ST BASE - Who made it: Justin Smoak

Who should have made it: Justin Smoak

This is a position that the fans couldn't go wrong here, Justin Smoak or Yonder Alonso would have both been perfect choices. They are nearly identical, Smoak just has a few more HR's, RBI's and batting average, so while either wouldn't have been an issue, Smoak deserved it just a little bit more.


2ND BASE - Who made it: Jose Altuve

Who should have made it: Jose Altuve

This was a simple and easy call here, no other 2B should really be in discussion here.


SHORTSTOP - Who made it: Carlos Correa

Who should have made it: Carlos Correa

The play at SS in the AL is very good with many deserving players, but Carlos Correa was the correct choice. Correa leads all AL shortstops in every major statistical batting category and is a MVP candidate, he has to be the starting SS for this team.


3RD BASE - Who made it: Jose Ramirez

Who should have made it: Jose Ramirez

While Maguel Sano and Mike Moustakas are worthy players and have more HR's than Ramirez, the Cleveland Indians 3B is having the better season. Despite the HR numbers favoring those 2, Ramirez still leads them in slugging % and OPS, and his batting average of .330 is nearly .040 points higher than any other 3B.






OUTFIELD - Who made it: Aaron Judge, Mike Trout (replaced by Mookie Betts), George Springer

Who should have made it: Aaron Judge, George Springer, Avisail Garcia

Aaron Judge is the current MVP of the AL and running away with the award, and George Springer is putting together a great season so far. Both are correct picks by the fans and deserve to start, the selection of Trout is where I have an issue though. Had Trout been healthy and playing this game, then it looked as though he would easily make the starting lineup. But Trout has not played since May 28th and his timetable for return was after the all-star game, yet fans voted for him anyway. So Trout gets voted in as a starter even though he's been injured for a month and not able to play in that game, which then gets doubled down as a bad decision when Mookie Betts is named his replacement.

While it's not egregious that Betts made it, he does have more doubles, home runs, walks and stolen bases than Garcia so I can see where the decision is coming from. But Garcia still has a better batting average, OBP, slugging% and OPS than Betts, so even if Betts is hitting for more power and walking more often, he still is statistically behind Garcia in those categories. When in doubt, always go with the guy that gets on base more and Garcia is that guy.




CATCHER - Who made it: Buster Posey

Who should have made it: Buster Posey

The bright spot on a last place San Francisco Giants team, the fans were right in voting Posey as the starter. There's no catcher that's even close to him this year, Yasmani Grandal is the only one that is matching his home run power but everything else is Posey in a landslide.


1ST BASE - Who made it: Ryan Zimmerman

Who should have made it:
Paul Goldschmidt

This was a close call, but Paul Goldschmidt is currently the NL MVP and cannot be left out of the starting lineup. Their home runs and batting averages are practically identical so going to the tiebreaker of OBP, OPS and slugging and it all favors Goldschmidt. He hits just as many HR's and bats for the same average, but gets on base more frequently, by drawing walks and has 13 stolen bases compared to Zimmerman's 1. Again, it's close but Paul Goldschmidt should be the starter.


2ND BASE - Who made it: Daniel Murphy

Who should have made it: Daniel Murphy

Daniel Murphy was really the only choice at 2B here. He's far and away having the best season of any 2B in the NL, easily deserves the start in the All-Star game.


SHORTSTOP - Who made it: Zack Cozart

Who should have made it: Zack Cozart

This was a big toss up, but ultimately the fans got it right by voting Zack Cozart. It came down to Cozart or Corey Seager and the debate over traditional batting stats compared to advanced batting stats. Seager has more doubles, home runs, RBI’s and walks while Cozart has the better batting average, slg %, OBP and OPS so the argument can be made for either player depending on what someone values more. But in the end, Seager’s lead in those categories are a bit deceiving considering he’s had nearly 100 more at bats than Cozart, which means that Cozart is likely hitting for the same type of power as Seager is, but is just behind in those categories due to less at bats. With taking that into consideration, Zack Cozart was the right choice here for NL SS.


3RD BASE - Who made it: Nolan Arenado

Who should have made it: Jake Lamb or Travis Shaw

There are 4 worthy players for all-star starter consideration and honestly, Nolan Arenado has the worst case of them all between Jake Lamb, Travis Shaw and Anthony Rendon. Either Jake Lamb or Travis Shaw should be the starter, it's splitting hairs to try and figure out which one is more deserving so either one would've been a correct call. Shaw leads Lamb in batting average, slugging % and OPS while Lamb leads Shaw in Home Runs, RBI's, and OBP and each are in the top 4 in every category so there isn't a stat out there that one dominates the other in. It's a toss up between the two, but the all-star start at 3B should have been between these two guys with no wrong vote.


OUTFIELD - Who made it: Bryce Harper, Charlie Blackmon, Marcell Ozuna

Who should have made it: Bryce Harper, Charlie Blackmon, Cody Bellinger

On top of being able to vote for players that are injured and won't play in All-Star game, the other issue is when a player gets called up after the season starts but has an all-star 1st half. That's what happened here, Cody Bellinger wasn't called up until April 25th so he was a write-in vote on all ballots since the ballots do not add or subtract any player once they are created. And this is nothing against Marcell Ozuna because he is having a tremendous year and is an all-star but Cody Bellinger is an MVP candidate and should be starting. Bellinger leads Ozuna in Home Runs, slugging % and OPS while only trailing him in RBI's by 12 and thats with around 80 less at bats. Ozuna's batting average and OBP are the two major categories that he leads Bellinger in, so I'm sure some out there would make the case for him and saying that Ozuna should not be a starter is not a slight at him at all, its just that Bellinger has been incredible this season so far and should have gotten a start in the outfield.

Monday, July 3, 2017

On Deck Circle 7/3/17: MLB Midseason Awards


By Pat Luhta, @PLuhta


We have reached the halfway point in the 2017 MLB season. While there is plenty of baseball left to be played, we can always take a look at the year that has been so far and talk about the frontrunners for the major MLB awards. Here at the "On Deck Circle", we will hand out midseason awards for the AL and NL rookie of the year, MVP and Cy Young award along with who is also in the running currently for these prestigious awards.



AMERICAN LEAGUE


ROOKIE OF THE YEAR


WINNER: Aaron Judge, OF, New York Yankees – This one is a no brainer, Judge doesn’t need to play another inning and he already has this award wrapped up. He is not only leading all rookies in home runs, but is leading the entire MLB in that category. He is also 2nd in the AL in batting average, combine that with his impressive power and it makes sense that he is also leading the entire MLB in OPS(on base+slugging.) Judge has not only wrapped up this award but has put himself in contention for many other awards and honors as well, needless to say it was quite a first half for Aaron Judge.

RUNNER-UP: Andrew Benintendi, OF, Boston Red Sox – A far distant 2nd place in rookie of the year shouldn’t lessen the impact that he has had so far this season. Benintendi is currently batting .275 with 10 home runs and 41 RBI’s, a very solid first full season in the majors currently. He is a big reason why the Red Sox offense is one of the better ones in the AL and he is doing his part in keeping them a playoff team.


CY YOUNG AWARD


WINNER: Jason Vargas, SP, Kansas City Royals - In a league filled with guys like Corey Kluber, Dallas Kuechel, Chris Sale and Yu Darvish, it’s Jason Vargas that is currently the AL Cy Young award winner. At 34 years old, Vargas is putting up career best numbers, leading the AL in wins, WAR and ERA while being 8th in WHIP. He has only started 12 games in the past 2 years combined so this comes as a surprise especially considering his career best ERA was 3.71 that he posted in 2014. Nonetheless, name value should not matter when deciding these awards and right now Jason Vargas has been the best pitcher in the AL.

RUNNER-UP: Chris Sale, SP, Boston Red Sox – The Boston Red Sox gave up a lot in order to trade for Chris Sale and it’s been worth every little bit. He leads the AL in K’s and WHIP and is 3rd in ERA, posting a 10-3 record. He has been the Red Sox workhorse all season due to injury to David Price and issues with other starting pitching, he has been heavily relied on and has come through for Boston so far. This is a close race currently with Sale having as good of a case as any for this award, will be a fun race to watch the rest of the way.


MVP


WINNER: Aaron Judge, OF, New York Yankees - Aaron Judge is not only the current rookie of the year, but the entire league MVP. The Yankees are a playoff team and much of the credit goes to Judge and his offensive production. 2nd in batting average, 1st in home runs, 1st in on base %, 1st in slugging % and 1st in OPS in the American League to go along with his 4.8 WAR(also 1st in AL.) The Yankees are 3rd or 4th in the division without his production and not a playoff team, instead they are in a battle with the Red Sox for the AL East and looking to win the division.

RUNNER-UP: Carlos Correa, SS, Houston Astros - The runner-up here could go to either Houston Astros middle infielder, Carlos Correa or Jose Altuve. Both are nearly identical in stats, Correa just adds a bit more pop off the bat while Altuve adds the speed in the lineup. Right now, they'll be splitting votes depending on who you ask, so there's some gray area there as far as value to the team whereas Aaron Judge is solidified in being the main reason why the Yankees offense is as good as it is. Correa deserves a ton of credit for being the best player on the best team in the AL, but in terms in value he falls just a bit short here.




NATIONAL LEAGUE


ROOKIE OF THE YEAR


WINNER: Cody Bellinger, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers - Much like the AL Rookie of the year, this one is also a no brainer. Bellinger was called up from triple A on April 25th and since then, he has been a nightmare to opposing pitchers. His 24 home runs leads the National League, is batting .267 and is currently 5th in the NL in OPS. No other rookie comes close to matching the offensive numbers that Bellinger is putting up, easily the NL rookie of the year so far.

RUNNER-UP: Josh Bell, 1B, Pittsburgh Pirates - Josh Bell is putting together a pretty solid rookie campaign as well. While batting average and on base percentage leaves some to be desired, he does have 15 home runs this season so he is providing some power for the Pirates. He's not putting up Bellinger numbers but not many players are, good rookie season so far for him still.


CY YOUNG


WINNER: Max Scherzer, SP, Washington Nationals - This race for Cy Young in the 2nd half of the season will be something to watch, but right now at the midseason point the award goes to Max Scherzer. Leading the NL in ERA with 2.06 with a ridiculous .78 WHIP, Scherzer has been close to untouchable in most of his starts. This also is why a pitcher's W-L record is so deceptive and not a good measure on how good a pitcher is, despite leading the NL in ERA, K's and WHIP , Scherzer is 9-5 on the season. Can't fault a pitcher for pitching well and not getting run support, the stats speak for themselves and Scherzer deserves the Cy Young award.

RUNNER-UP: Clayton Kershaw, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers - Kershaw is right behind Scherzer for this award and trails him in many categories. Kershaw is 2nd in the NL in ERA, K's and WHIP, with Scherzer leading those categories. They are very close though in them so a lot can change in the next 3 months and will be exciting to see how this plays out but right now, Kershaw is just edged out for this award.


MVP


WINNER: Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks - The Arizona Diamondbacks are a surprise team this season with one of the best offenses in the league. The most consistent and overall best player on offense for them has been Paul Goldschmidt, who is having yet another stellar season. Without Goldschmidt, there's no telling where this team would be, he is batting .317 with 19 home runs and leads the National League in RBI's. Arizona's offense flows through him and he is currently the NL MVP.

RUNNER-UP : Cody Bellinger, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers - On April 25th, the Dodgers were 10-11 and just called Cody Bellinger up to take the spot of Adrian Gonzalez, who was headed to the DL. Since then, the Dodgers are 44-17 and leading the best division in baseball(NL West.) During that stretch, they also lost Justin Turner for 19 games and Bellinger was there to pick up the slack and then some. There are many candidates for NL MVP, Nolan Arenado and Bryce Harper immediately come to mind, but what Bellinger has done while players like Gonzalez and Turner have been out is MVP worthy. The Dodgers offense hasn't skipped a beat in their absence, in large due to Bellinger's 24 home runs and 56 RBI's.

Friday, June 23, 2017

On Deck Circle 6/23/17: Who's Real and Who's Fake?


By Pat Luhta, @PLuhta


The MLB season is quickly approaching the halfway point, teams are hitting the 70 game mark on the season. Right now, there is still a ton of sorting to be done among the top of the division and it can turn quickly one way or the other for any team. There are even teams out there that may win their division and make the playoffs, but will be overmatched and aren't truly made of championship material.

It's time to predict which current contending teams are actually real and will remain in contention and be considered a World Series team, and which ones are fake and will eventually fall off, whether it's before the end of the season or if they manage to make the playoffs. Here's a breakdown of the division leaders and contenders and if they are here to stay or if they are fool's gold.


AL EAST

New York Yankees - REAL: It took everyone a little while to start believing that this team has staying power but the Yankees seem to be back. Their offense, led by Aaron Judge, is exploding this year and if Judge, along with Gary Sanchez, Starlin Castro and others, can keep this up then they have what it takes to remain the division leaders. Their pitching is also looking real good, Luis Severino and C.C. Sabathia (no, you're not seeing things) are having good seasons and what's scary about their staff is that Masahiro Tanaka has not been good. If he turns it around a bit then there's no telling what this team is capable of. They have hit a little bit of a slump lately, but nothing to worry about long-term as this team is for real.


Boston Red Sox - REAL: This team has it all and may end up being the team to beat in the American League. Betts, Bogaerts and Benintendi make a powerful triple threat on offense that is making up for the loss of David Ortiz and Chris Sale has been worth every little bit of the trade so far as he has been their ace pitcher. In order for the Red Sox to become that team to beat though, they will need David Price to fully return to form as right now they really do not have a solid #2 starter behind Sale. Still though, the Red Sox are a team that will be in contention all season long.


Tampa Bay Rays - FAKE: The Rays are currently hanging on in the wild card hunt, but I don't see it lasting too much longer. With a slew of teams right behind them and if they fall out just a little bit then expect them to be seller's at the deadline. I'm not counting them completely out, their offense may provide enough to keep them in it, but Chris Archer will again be a hot commodity at the trade deadline and the Rays end up dealing him this year.



AL CENTRAL

Cleveland Indians - REAL: I've been saying for a month now that the Indians are just working things out and they will be fine. Sure enough, they have seemingly turned that corner are now in 1st place in the division. Edwin Encarnacion is crushing the ball after a very slow start to the season and after a brief DL stint, Corey Kluber is looking like his Cy Young form. This is the team that made the World Series last season, they are definitely for real.


Minnesota Twins - FAKE: The Twins had the luxury of the Indians starting off sluggish, so they did what they could to gain a lead in the division. While Brian Dozier and Miguel Sano have been bright spots in the lineup and Jose Berrios looks like a future ace, their playoff hopes seem about up. Put it this way, when a team has over -40 run differential and ranks 28th in team ERA, there's no chance to sustain a first place lead or make up ground on the wild card spots. Because of that, I have to call the Twins as fake.



AL WEST

Houston Astros - REAL: I'm honestly not sure how anyone could consider this team to be fake, they are as real of a team as it gets. They have the best record in the entire MLB, Carlos Correa and Jose Altuve are both legitimate MVP candidates and their pitching is in the top 5 in a majority of stats. There isn't much else to say, this team is for real and the current favorite to win the World Series.



NL EAST

Washington Nationals - REAL: Even though they are going to win their division and have one of the best records in the league, this was tough for me to choose. Don't get me wrong, on paper they are definitely legit and have what it takes to win the NL, but they use their starting pitching so much that there's a decent chance the wear and tear down the stretch could lead to another 1st round exit. But ultimately, I have to go with the Nationals being real, they have everything it takes so can't call them anything but solely based on a hypothetical that their pitching will eventually breakdown. I don't have high hopes for their playoff run, but this team is for real.



NL CENTRAL

Milwaukee Brewers - FAKE: Let me start by saying that the Brewers are fake, for now. They are beginning to prove themselves and win me over, but I'm just not ready to jump all in on them right now. They are just so middle of the road in many team categories, and both batting and pitching and are being led by some unlikely players. While Eric Thames and Chase Anderson have been real good stories, are we 100% sure that they will keep this going all season long? They just have very little margin for error, and while they likely will win the division, it's still too soon to buy them as a real threat.


Chicago Cubs - FAKE: What? The defending World Series champs are fake this season? At first I thought it was just a little lack of motivation after winning it all last year, that they'd shrug it off and turn it up, but this team has some serious holes that do not look fixable. Their offense is just lacking, Anthony Rizzo being the only player that's really living up to his norm this season. They are 29th in batting average, 18th in On Base %, 19th in OPS, 17th in runs and 29th in stolen bases, all the makings of a pretty subpar offense overall. Their pitching isn't much better, with only 1 starting pitcher (Jon Lester) with an ERA under 4. This goes beyond just a "championship hangover" and are real issues that makes this alarming. They need to win the division in order to even make the playoffs thanks to the 3 teams in the NL West and with these problems, don't be surprised if they miss out on the postseason.



NL WEST

Los Angeles Dodgers - REAL: What if I told you at the start of the season that the offensive MVP of the team would be Cody Bellinger and the Cy Young of the team would be Alex Wood? Bellinger started the season in triple A and the Dodgers have Clayton Kershaw, but sure enough, those two are leading the way for the Dodgers. Bellinger leads the entire NL in home runs despite not being called up until April 25th, add him to a lineup that already has Corey Seager, Justin Turner, Yasiel Puig and Adrian Gonzalez and there's reason why this team is one of the best statistical offenses in the league. Kershaw is still typical Kershaw,(10-2 2.60 ERA, 115 K's) but Alex Wood has just been that much better this season. Wood is 7-0, 1.90 ERA and 72K's in 12 games this season, he's a legitimate 2nd ace on the team. With the offense as good as it is and the pitching being top notch(including Kenley Jansen being 15/15 in saves with 50 K's and zero walks), this team is for real.


Colorado Rockies - REAL: The Rockies having a good offense is nothing new, the friendly atmosphere in Denver will always give them a boost in numbers. But this offense has some serious talent and the offensive numbers can't be blamed on the thin air in Denver. Charlie Blackmon may be the best CF in the NL(McCutcheon isn't ready to give that crown up just yet), Nolan Arenado is a star 3B with ridiculous HR ability and Mark Reynolds is having a career renaissance. Their starting pitching isn't great, but their bullpen has been exceptional this year. Greg Holland leads the league in saves as Adam Ottavino sets the table for him, a top 5 offense with a shut down bullpen is a perfect way to mask any issues with the starting pitching. And we're still a month away from the trade deadline, do not be surprised if the Rockies go for Chris Archer or Jose Quintana to help the starting rotation. Rockies are a playoff team that can contend with any team in the MLB, this team is for real.


Arizona Diamondbacks - REAL: I have been hesitant to call them real all season so far, but can't deny what this team is doing and any team that is circling around +100 in run differential needs to be taken seriously. Paul Goldschmidt leads the way for an offense that is also one of the best in the league(it's an NL West thing), with Jake Lamb, Chris Owings and Brandon Drury also providing a ton of pop off the bat. This team last trade deadline was looking to be sellers and the main guy they were looking to unload was SP Zack Greinke. In his first of a 6 year 205 million dollar deal with the Diamondbacks, Greinke underperformed and the team was looking to give up on him, and it's a good thing for them that they didn't. Greinke has returned to All-Star form, 8-4 with a 3.14 ERA and 1.05 WHIP, he's also struck out 111 batters while only walking 19. Robbie Ray has also been a solid starter for them and Fernando Rodney has been a perfect 20/20 in save opportunities this season. The NL West will be such a fun race the rest of the season and its a shame that 2 of these 3 teams will have to play in the 1 game wildcard playoff. Not sure who the best of the 3 are, but Arizona has a good of a claim to being the best as any.