On Deck Circle 7/17/17: 5 Bold Predictions For The MLB's Second Half

By Pat Luhta, @PLuhta


Baseball season is now past the unofficial midway point now that the All-Star game and festivities are complete. As the MLB season is back underway, we can look at what’s ahead for the 2nd half of the season and make some predictions on what’s to come. So let’s not only make some predictions, but let’s go out on a limb and make some real bold ones here. These predictions may not seem likely but there’s no telling what could happen with this many games left to play still, so let’s jump right into it here with 5 bold predictions for the 2nd half of the MLB season.

1. The Yankees will not make the playoffs – So I’ll get started with a bold-lite prediction here and call the Yankees and non-playoff team. The Yankees got off to a hot start in April and lead the division through May and are now in the playoffs as a wildcard team so they’ve been a playoff team since the beginning of the season. They are just 6-18 since June 13th though and are tapering off rapidly, Boston has not only surpassed them for the division lead but the Tampa Bay Rays have also caught up to them and went into the All-Star break tied for the top wildcard spot. With the Twins, Royals, Angels and Rangers all within 3 games of the wildcard spot, it’s completely feasible that the Yankees miss out on the playoffs this season if they continue this type of play.

2. Carlos Correa or Jose Altuve will win AL MVP – This bold prediction is based off the previous prediction. Right now, Aaron Judge is the AL MVP and it’s not close, he has this all locked up right now. If the Yankees do miss the playoffs though and Aaron Judge hits a rookie wall, then that leaves the MVP up for debate. The Astros were an impressive 60-29 at All-Star break and on pace for roughly 110 wins this season, if they can win that many games then someone on the Astros will get big time consideration. Carlos Correa and Jose Altuve are the top 2 candidates and very similar in production, it will be a close call in which they will split votes and one will end up as the AL MVP.

3. The St. Louis Cardinals will win the NL Central – A 3rd place team that is 2 games under .500 and 5.5 games out of 1st place at all-star break, it would seem unlikely that any team under those circumstances would make a run at the division. But the Cardinals though have the benefit of playing a division that is still up for grabs, not sold on the Brewers yet and the Cubs are still a mess even with the acquisition of Jose Quintana(which the White Sox fleeced them in, btw.) The Cardinals’ bats need to wake up a bit and they can make up ground in no time, their pitching is amongst the best in the league and any team that has good pitching will have a shot at the postseason. Pitching stays where it is and bats heat up a bit, and the division is all theirs to win.

4. Pittsburgh Pirates will be biggest sellers as trade deadline approaches – Everyone right now is assuming that the Oakland A’s will be the biggest sellers, but let’s not be too sure about that. The A’s have Sonny Gray that will almost certainly be dealt and they will have other available assets such as Yonder Alonso and Khris Davis to deal as well. But the Pirates have more players that are worth trading for and being 7 games out of the division, it’s time to start dealing them. While I do not think Andrew McCutcheon will be traded, players like Gerrit Cole, Ivan Nova, Josh Harrison and Francisco Cervelli could all be on the move. Cole and Nova especially now that the market for starting pitching has been set with the trade of Jose Quintana to the Cubs, pitching will cost buyers a lot in order to deal so Pittsburgh can get younger real quick by trading either or both pitchers.

5. Bryce Harper and Clayton Kershaw will win the NL triple crown - In batting, the triple crown is when a batter leads the league in batting average, RBI's and home runs. This is one of the rarest feats in baseball, Miguel Cabrera accomplished it in 2012 but before then it was Carl Yastrzemski in 1967 and to stack the deck even more against Bryce Harper, there hasn't been a triple crown winner in the NL since 1937. That ends this year, Harper is currently 2nd in the NL in batting average, tied for 3rd in RBI's and tied for 7th in home runs(only 4 back of the current leader.) He is within striking distance of them all and will end up leading the National League in all 3 come season's end. The triple crown in pitching is a bit more common, when a pitcher leads the league in wins, ERA and strikeouts. Clayton Kershaw accomplished this once before, back in 2011 and he is primed to do it again this season.

He leads the league in wins and is 2nd in both ERA and strikeouts and is extremely close to being 1st in all 3. Max Scherzer has a 2.10 ERA while Kershaw has a 2.18 and Scherzer has 173 K's while Kershaw has 159, that slim margin is what is keeping Kershaw from currently leading in all 3. A batter and pitcher winning the triple crown in the same league in the same year has not happened since 1934 and has only happened once in the National League(back in 1884, I'm sure we all remember that), but this year we will get to witness a rare phenomenon as both Bryce Harper and Clayton Kershaw will be triple crown winners.

On Deck Circle 7/3/17: MLB Midseason Awards

By Pat Luhta, @PLuhta


We have reached the halfway point in the 2017 MLB season. While there is plenty of baseball left to be played, we can always take a look at the year that has been so far and talk about the frontrunners for the major MLB awards. Here at the "On Deck Circle", we will hand out midseason awards for the AL and NL rookie of the year, MVP and Cy Young award along with who is also in the running currently for these prestigious awards.



AMERICAN LEAGUE


ROOKIE OF THE YEAR

WINNER: Aaron Judge, OF, New York Yankees – This one is a no brainer, Judge doesn’t need to play another inning and he already has this award wrapped up. He is not only leading all rookies in home runs, but is leading the entire MLB in that category. He is also 2nd in the AL in batting average, combine that with his impressive power and it makes sense that he is also leading the entire MLB in OPS(on base+slugging.) Judge has not only wrapped up this award but has put himself in contention for many other awards and honors as well, needless to say it was quite a first half for Aaron Judge.

RUNNER-UP: Andrew Benintendi, OF, Boston Red Sox – A far distant 2nd place in rookie of the year shouldn’t lessen the impact that he has had so far this season. Benintendi is currently batting .275 with 10 home runs and 41 RBI’s, a very solid first full season in the majors currently. He is a big reason why the Red Sox offense is one of the better ones in the AL and he is doing his part in keeping them a playoff team.


CY YOUNG AWARD

WINNER: Jason Vargas, SP, Kansas City Royals - In a league filled with guys like Corey Kluber, Dallas Kuechel, Chris Sale and Yu Darvish, it’s Jason Vargas that is currently the AL Cy Young award winner. At 34 years old, Vargas is putting up career best numbers, leading the AL in wins, WAR and ERA while being 8th in WHIP. He has only started 12 games in the past 2 years combined so this comes as a surprise especially considering his career best ERA was 3.71 that he posted in 2014. Nonetheless, name value should not matter when deciding these awards and right now Jason Vargas has been the best pitcher in the AL.

RUNNER-UP: Chris Sale, SP, Boston Red Sox – The Boston Red Sox gave up a lot in order to trade for Chris Sale and it’s been worth every little bit. He leads the AL in K’s and WHIP and is 3rd in ERA, posting a 10-3 record. He has been the Red Sox workhorse all season due to injury to David Price and issues with other starting pitching, he has been heavily relied on and has come through for Boston so far. This is a close race currently with Sale having as good of a case as any for this award, will be a fun race to watch the rest of the way.


MVP

WINNER: Aaron Judge, OF, New York Yankees - Aaron Judge is not only the current rookie of the year, but the entire league MVP. The Yankees are a playoff team and much of the credit goes to Judge and his offensive production. 2nd in batting average, 1st in home runs, 1st in on base %, 1st in slugging % and 1st in OPS in the American League to go along with his 4.8 WAR(also 1st in AL.) The Yankees are 3rd or 4th in the division without his production and not a playoff team, instead they are in a battle with the Red Sox for the AL East and looking to win the division.

RUNNER-UP: Carlos Correa, SS, Houston Astros - The runner-up here could go to either Houston Astros middle infielder, Carlos Correa or Jose Altuve. Both are nearly identical in stats, Correa just adds a bit more pop off the bat while Altuve adds the speed in the lineup. Right now, they'll be splitting votes depending on who you ask, so there's some gray area there as far as value to the team whereas Aaron Judge is solidified in being the main reason why the Yankees offense is as good as it is. Correa deserves a ton of credit for being the best player on the best team in the AL, but in terms in value he falls just a bit short here.




NATIONAL LEAGUE


ROOKIE OF THE YEAR

WINNER: Cody Bellinger, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers - Much like the AL Rookie of the year, this one is also a no brainer. Bellinger was called up from triple A on April 25th and since then, he has been a nightmare to opposing pitchers. His 24 home runs leads the National League, is batting .267 and is currently 5th in the NL in OPS. No other rookie comes close to matching the offensive numbers that Bellinger is putting up, easily the NL rookie of the year so far.

RUNNER-UP: Josh Bell, 1B, Pittsburgh Pirates - Josh Bell is putting together a pretty solid rookie campaign as well. While batting average and on base percentage leaves some to be desired, he does have 15 home runs this season so he is providing some power for the Pirates. He's not putting up Bellinger numbers but not many players are, good rookie season so far for him still.


CY YOUNG

WINNER: Max Scherzer, SP, Washington Nationals - This race for Cy Young in the 2nd half of the season will be something to watch, but right now at the midseason point the award goes to Max Scherzer. Leading the NL in ERA with 2.06 with a ridiculous .78 WHIP, Scherzer has been close to untouchable in most of his starts. This also is why a pitcher's W-L record is so deceptive and not a good measure on how good a pitcher is, despite leading the NL in ERA, K's and WHIP , Scherzer is 9-5 on the season. Can't fault a pitcher for pitching well and not getting run support, the stats speak for themselves and Scherzer deserves the Cy Young award.

RUNNER-UP: Clayton Kershaw, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers - Kershaw is right behind Scherzer for this award and trails him in many categories. Kershaw is 2nd in the NL in ERA, K's and WHIP, with Scherzer leading those categories. They are very close though in them so a lot can change in the next 3 months and will be exciting to see how this plays out but right now, Kershaw is just edged out for this award.


MVP

WINNER: Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks - The Arizona Diamondbacks are a surprise team this season with one of the best offenses in the league. The most consistent and overall best player on offense for them has been Paul Goldschmidt, who is having yet another stellar season. Without Goldschmidt, there's no telling where this team would be, he is batting .317 with 19 home runs and leads the National League in RBI's. Arizona's offense flows through him and he is currently the NL MVP.

RUNNER-UP : Cody Bellinger, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers - On April 25th, the Dodgers were 10-11 and just called Cody Bellinger up to take the spot of Adrian Gonzalez, who was headed to the DL. Since then, the Dodgers are 44-17 and leading the best division in baseball(NL West.) During that stretch, they also lost Justin Turner for 19 games and Bellinger was there to pick up the slack and then some. There are many candidates for NL MVP, Nolan Arenado and Bryce Harper immediately come to mind, but what Bellinger has done while players like Gonzalez and Turner have been out is MVP worthy. The Dodgers offense hasn't skipped a beat in their absence, in large due to Bellinger's 24 home runs and 56 RBI's.