On Deck Circle 7/24/17: Solving The Indians Starting Rotation

By Pat Luhta, @PLuhta


Going into the season, starting pitching for the Indians seemed like a huge strength of the team. Corey Kluber is a top 3 pitcher in the AL, Carlos Carrasco could be the ace of many other staffs, Danny Salazar has been very solid for the past 2 seasons and Trevor Bauer and Josh Tomlin have been serviceable pitchers for end of rotation.

This season, Kluber and Carrasco are still performing well and to their norm, the others though…not so much. A team that went to the World Series last season and has expectations of being there again this season is currently underperforming and clinging onto a division lead in which they should be running away with and that is falling on the shoulders of the starting pitching.

So now with the trade deadline approaching and Danny Salazar returning from the disabled list, the big question is what the Indians should do with the starting rotation. Salazar’s return means that there are 6 starting pitchers on the roster so there will be one odd man out now and even then, most aren’t overly optimistic that going with the current starters on the roster will be enough to capture the AL pennant. So where do the Indians go from here and who should be the 5 starting pitchers?

First, let’s not even bother with talking about Kluber or Carrasco. Those 2 are the top 2 starters and won’t be moving at all from the rotation, so those spots are set.

Next comes Mike Clevinger, who started out on fire in triple A and has carried over his pitching performance to the big leagues. Clevinger is a smaller sample size than the others with only 12 starts this season, but his 2.73 ERA and 1.12 WHIP puts him right up there with Kluber and Carrasco and is a solid #3 starter. Him being the “new guy” with less time in the MLB than the others shouldn’t matter, he’s outperforming the other candidates for the 3 spot and should remain as the guy there, would be a huge mistake if experience trumps production in this case.

Before we continue on about current Indians pitchers, here’s where the potential for a trade comes in to play. I know many fans will be upset if the Indians do not make a move for a starting arm before the deadline(July 31st), but the reality of it is they are most likely not going to be...

Why? A number of reasons.

The first being that there’s not really a big market for available starting pitchers. The Rangers are shopping Yu Darvish but he comes with a monster price tag and is a rent-a-player, Indians won’t be re-signing him considering he will be an 100+ million dollar contract likely and the tribe will have their hands full with Francisco Lindor this offseason. The Rays would be insane to trade Chris Archer with the way he’s performed along with his money and years friendly contract, the Pirates just sprung right back into division contention so Gerrit Cole is off the trading block, so we are looking at Sonny Gray as the best available target out there as far as pitching goes.

Sonny Gray is a good pitcher, but that’s it. He would be a solid upgrade over whoever is the #4 starter, but he’s not an ace of a staff or anything as his 3.66 ERA and 1.18 WHIP shows. The biggest issue with trading for Gray is his price, especially when considering what the Cubs recently gave up for Jose Quintana (who Gray is better than.) The Cubs shelled out a top 10 prospect in Eloy Jimenez, a top 70 prospect in Dylan Cease and 2 other prospects for Quintana, so if the A’s are looking for that type of deal then the Indians most likely will not be in the running. They gutted the farm system a bit last season with the acquisition of Andrew Miller, and right now only have 3 prospects in the top 100. So Indians fans need to ask themselves if Sonny Gray is worth giving up both Francisco Mejia and Triston McKenzie for, or McKenzie and Bobby Bradley for, any combination of 2 of the top 3 prospects being involved in this trade.

Big deals in consecutive years are damaging to the farm, it’s just a matter of Sonny Gray being that guy that puts Cleveland over the top, like Miller was last season, and if not then they should pass on the deal.

For now, we will stick with who the Indians have in order to fill out the remainder of the pitching rotation, and what player should occupy the #4 spot. While he possibly may be having the worst season off all the starters on this team, this is where Danny Salazar fits in. He’s the best overall pitcher of what’s left and the 2 previous seasons his ERA has been under 4.00, so I am willing to give the benefit of the doubt to him based on his track record. He’s just getting back from the DL and we can revisit this after his next few starts but right now, he has the best chance of turning it around and pitching well down the stretch.

So that leaves us with Trevor Bauer and Josh Tomlin for that 1 final spot. This is a tough call really, both have pitched poorly overall this season but Trevor Bauer should remain a starting pitcher, sending Josh Tomlin to the bullpen. This seems like it would be an unpopular pick as Bauer has fallen out of graces with many fans, partly due to his political views and overall attitude, but there are a few reasons why he should be the 5th starter over Josh Tomlin.

One of the worst things a relief pitcher can do is come out of the bullpen and walk guys, especially since there will be times he’ll come on in relief with men on base already. Bauer leads the team in walks and has a higher WHIP than Tomlin, I’d trust Tomlin to come out of the bullpen and shut down an inning before Bauer would, especially considering how different of a change it would be for hitters if Tomlin were to relieve Kluber or Carrasco. When splitting hairs over pitchers with similar stats, how they fit in to the bullpen should definitely be a factor, and Tomlin would make a better pitcher coming on in relief than Bauer would. He could easily smooth over the rockiness of Brian Shaw, where Bauer might just be another Brian Shaw out of the bullpen.

There’s also their overall stuff, and I know we’ve been hearing about Bauer having a ton of talent and just not producing but I’ll take a “hit or miss” 5th starter with the potential to throw a gem over someone with just decent stuff. We’re not asking either to be a top of the line starter, so the risk-reward with Bauer should come into play here.

And finally, and most importantly here, the mental aspect and personality is in play here. I don’t want to make this sound like Tomlin should be “demoted” for this while also making it seem that Bauer should just get what he wants, but Tomlin is one of those guys that wants to do whatever is best for the team and is willing to help out in any way that he can. Bauer, from the way he talks and portrays himself, doesn’t seem to be that type of player. The worry of sending him to the bullpen could cause a big rift overall, can see him being upset to the point where he blows up and it affects his pitching to the point where he is rendered useless and whether fans like it or not, Bauer will be on the roster this season and won’t be DFA’d or traded (unless the Indians can make him a part of a Sonny Gray deal) so the Indians need to find use out of him. Tomlin would take it in stride and say that he’ll do whatever is asked of him, it makes more sense just to keep things on an even keel here to move Tomlin around while keeping Bauer where he’s at.

So that’s what it should look like going forward barring any trades. Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Mike Clevinger, Danny Salazar and Trevor Bauer as the starting rotation and Josh Tomlin in the bullpen. When you look at it that way, if Clevinger remains pitching the way he has and Salazar finds his groove and gets back to 2016 form, this rotation may be good enough for a pennant run after all.

Tribe Talk: It's Only The Beginning

By Alex Hale, @ThatCLESportGuy

They weren’t supposed to be that close to a World Series Championship.  The injuries that depleted their roster would make us just lucky to be in the playoffs, let alone winning the first American League pennant since 1997.  The players that emerged were supposed to be fringe prospects that could be serviceable, but you couldn’t count on them.  The coaching was suspect and with a down year could potentially put a future Hall of Fame Manager on the hot seat.  Yet…after all of that, the Cleveland Indians were 1 WIN AWAY from winning the Franchise’s first World Series since 1948.  And while the loss in the World Series to the Cubs stung, the Indians and their fans shouldn’t hang their heads down over this.  What they did was nothing short of miraculous and shouldn’t be forgotten, given everything that happened.  In 2016 we learned more about the character of the Cleveland Indians franchise than we did by the pure potential of the team in terms of talent.  In this Season Wrap-up we will see how the Indians got to the doorstep of winning the Fall Classic.

We go back to March when Spring Training started, the Indians were looked at by many as a team with a great Starting Rotation, a solid bullpen, but an offense that was extremely suspect, especially with Michael Brantley not scheduled to return until May.  The Indians had added Mike Napoli and Rajai Davis to add some veteran presence along with the power and speed they provided.  The Indians would add Juan Uribe to provide someone to start at 3B, along with his winning attitude that he’s brought everywhere he’s been.  What the Indians didn’t expect was the Spring Training emergence of Tyler Naquin who would torch pitching throughout March, earning his spot on the Opening Day roster.  Going into the regular season, expectations were low, I had the Indians finishing fourth in the division.  Little did we know the craziness that awaited us in the Regular Season…

The Indians started the year at home against the Boston Red Sox, a team a lot of analysts had picked to win the AL East.  That series would have 2 postponed games and the Indians would struggle out of the gate.  The Indians were primarily led by Josh Tomlin who went 3-0 with a 3.18 ERA.  Corey Kluber would start out the year in April going 1-3, leaving a lot of people to wonder if the Indians were going to get the 2015 Kluber, who pitched well, but just had no luck in terms of run support.  Michael Brantley would return late in the month of April, but would only be on the roster for 11 games before suffering a setback that would keep him out the rest of the season.  The Indians would go 10-11 in April, leaving many fans to wonder if 2016 was going to be just another mediocre year.

The Indians would show signs of life in May going 16-13, but it wasn’t until June that the Indians started to really come together.  The Indians would go on a 14 game winning streak that lead to a 22-6 month of June clearly putting the Indians atop of the AL Central.  The Indians were finally getting the 2014 AL Cy Young Corey Kluber back and Josh Tomlin was quietly off to one of his best seasons ever and would be one of the biggest AL All-Star snubs.  The Indians rotation was coming together, the Indians bullpen was hitting their stride and finding some new impact relievers like Dan Otero to bolster the depth.  The biggest story though in the month of June was the emergence of Jose Ramirez, who had burst onto the scene as a clutch hitter who was capable of filling the role left by the loss of Michael Brantley.  By June, the Indians had been platooning Ramirez with Juan Uribe at 3B and by July would become the full-time 3B as the Indians would release Juan Uribe.

In the month of July the Indians were at a crossroads, they had a solid offense that would probably propel them to an AL Central Championship as Mike Napoli became the Indians cleanup hitter and allowed the rest of the lineup to find their own roles to create a consistent balanced lineup.  But the Indians were missing something, a lefty reliever that they could rely on.  As the Trade Deadline approached, the Indians searched many options, but decided to go bold and push their chips in acquiring from the Yankees RP Andrew Miller AND Brewers C Jonathan Lucroy…or so we thought.  As the Andrew Miller trade was finalized that sent prized OF prospect Clint Frazier to the Yankees, Jonathan Lucroy would use this opportunity to exercise his No Trade clause, rejecting playing for the Indians.  This would force the returning Roberto Perez to platoon with veteran journeyman Chris Jimenez at Catcher.  But through this process, the Indians Front Office made a statement, “We’re ready to win NOW”.  That message hit home with the locker room who would use Jonathan Lucroy’s rejection as fuel that would propel them to the AL Central Crown, finishing the regular season at 94-67.

But the end of the year caused some roadblocks for the Indians going into the playoffs.  Danny Salazar had gone through shoulder problems in the 2nd Half that would put the Indians down one in their rotation.  Then Carlos Carrasco got in the way of a line drive that would break his hand, ending his season.  The Indians would go on to rely on Kluber, Josh Tomlin (after a horrible month of August), Trevor Bauer and Terry Francona’s “bullpen days” that would utilize the entire bullpen to get them through the game.  Going into the postseason, very few had the Indians really making it past the first round against the Red Sox.  Even Indians beat writers doubted their chances.

In the playoffs the Indians as they had come to show all year long showed the resilience that became their identity.  Against almost impossible odds to even stop Boston and the David Ortiz farewell tour, the Indians made quick work sweeping the Red Sox.  The Indians would then go on to face former team President Mark Shapiro and his Toronto Blue Jays.  With Corey Kluber and a revitalized Josh Tomlin, the Indians took two wins in Cleveland.  But a certain drone incident would set the team back again as Trevor Bauer’s pinky would be severely cut and in Game 3 wouldn’t make it out of the 1st inning because of his cut being reopened.  The Indians would somehow with their bullpen win Game 3 and would lose Game 4 with Corey Kluber starting.  That left Game 5 in the hands of rookie SP Ryan Merritt, who had one other career start late in the year at Kansas City.  Merritt would shock everyone, dominating an extremely talented Toronto lineup before turning it over to ALCS MVP Andrew Miller and the bullpen to close out the series and send the Indians to the World Series.

Now we all know how the World Series went down, the Indians against overwhelming odds and almost every analyst saying the Cubs would easily win this series, would somehow have a 3-1 lead against Chicago.  While the Indians would blow that lead, Game 7 of the World Series was the definition of the Cleveland Indians.  Down 6-1, the Indians wouldn’t quit and claw their way back before Rajai Davis, who had struggled all postseason would hit a game tying Home Run off Aroldis Chapman, who before Davis hadn’t given up a Home Run since he arrived in Chicago.  The Indians would one swing away from their first World Series Championship since 1948.  Even down 2 in the 10th, the Indians would continue to fight, scoring one and have the winning run at the plate before the Cubs finished the series once and for all.

Rajai. Davis.

Cleveland. Legend. #Game7 pic.twitter.com/PptzTVwcu5

— MLB (@MLB) November 3, 2016

So what did we learn in 2016 about the Cleveland Indians?  The Indians may not have the superstars like most teams, but the Indians have a will to win that can’t be measured.  Every time you count this team out, they fight until the bitter end.  While the ending wasn’t what we all had hoped for, the Indians seem like they’re in the same position as the Royals were after coming up short in 2014.  Like those Royals, the Indians not just have the bullpen, but the resilience that makes you never count them out of a game.  I fully expect the Indians to come into the 2017 season hungry to finish what they started in 2016 and to be honest, no matter what they do in the offseason, I wouldn’t put anything past these guys.  In 2015, I said their struggles throughout the 2015 season was exactly what they needed.  The Indians had guys like Jason Kipnis and Corey Kluber step up as a leaders and hold the team accountable.  It started to rub off on the new blood of the core like Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor who have finally seemingly have the left side of the infield plugged in for years to come.  Most of the team is under contract and will be back together for 2017 and will be ready to finish their mission.

While the Indians have decisions to make on bringing back Rajai Davis and Mike Napoli, I’m going to save my offseason predictions.  I mean nothing really happens until the Winter Meetings, but rest assured, you’ll see what I’d do and more importantly how the Indians have plenty of money to spend this offseason.

Guys…the Indians weren’t supposed to get here.  All the series of events throughout the season screamed that the Indians were lucky to even get to the playoffs.  Yet somehow, someway the Indians were 1 swing away from a World Series Championship.  This is only the beginning Tribe fans, the future is indeed bright for the Cleveland Indians.  WE WILL BE BACK…I guarantee it.

Tribe Talk 6.10.16: The Rise, Fall and Resurgence of Josh Tomlin #Indians

By Alex Hale, @DaSportsGenius7

The Baseball world today loves the power pitcher that throws in the upper-90s and has filthy stuff.  Nobody ever appreciates the Greg Maddux-type anymore that is a pitcher who locates his pitches and gets players out.  Over the past year now, Baseball has overlooked one of Baseball’s best stories in Indians SP Josh Tomlin.  As Indians fans know, Tomlin has never fit the mold of what fans think an All-Star pitcher looks like, but Tomlin is proving in 2016 that he’s the kind of pitcher that breaks the mold.  While his fastball sits more in the high 80s-lower 90s, his ability to locate his pitches and more importantly the ability to locate his secondary stuff has made him into one of the league’s more dependable arms.

What people forget is the journey Josh Tomlin has been on throughout his career.  Tomlin was originally drafted by the San Diego Padres in the 11th Round out of Texas Tech in 2005, but Tomlin chose to not sign.  One year later, the Indians selected him in the 19th Round in the 2006 MLB Draft and signed him.  Tomlin was an advanced arm that had experience in college that made him adapt to hitters in the lower levels in the Minors.  By 2008, Tomlin was pitching at the AAA level, just one step away from The Show.  In 2009, Tomlin played the year down at AA Akron and was respectable, but once again because of the kind of pitcher he was, not too many people expected him to be a real MLB rotation option.  Things changed quickly in 2010 when he returned to AAA and was dominant going 8-4 with 2.68 ERA and 1.08 WHIP.  This was noticed by the Indians Front Office and then manager Manny Acta and Tomlin finally debuted in Cleveland where he finished the year going 6-4 with 4.56 ERA and 1.24 WHIP.

  Although his numbers weren’t “sexy”, they were the foundation for a pitcher who would rely on consistency throughout his career.  In 2011, Tomlin got a spot in the rotation and started 26 games and improved going 12-7 with 4.25 ERA and 1.07 WHIP.  He tied for the team high in wins with Justin Masterson, although Tomlin got 12 wins in 7 less starts than Masterson.  Tomlin was one of the main reasons the Indians found themselves in July with a chance to make a run for the playoffs.  There was a lot of hope for Tomlin and people saw him as a solid starter that was consistent.  Things were looking up for Tomlin at this time.

Coming off his successful 2011 season, fans expected Josh Tomlin to be a big part of a rotation that included a then budding ace in Justin Masterson and 2011 Trade acquisition Ubaldo Jimenez.  In 2012 there seemed to be something wrong with Josh Tomlin.  His ERA soared to over 6.00 ERA and his K/BB ratio jumped up along with his WHIP, something wasn’t right.  Early in the year he had soreness in his wrist, which an MRI revealed to be inflammation of the soft tissue.  Tomlin never seemed to shake the injury off when he returned to the rotation, but in August things took a turn for the worst.  In August Tomlin learned he would need Tommy John surgery after complaining about discomfort in his elbow.  Tomlin would return in 2013 to face the White Sox in a relief appearance and threw 2 shutout innings.  It seemed like the old Josh Tomlin was back and after a Wild Card Game appearance in 2013, fans felt that adding Tomlin with Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, and Danny Salazar would give them a very good rotation going forward and there was reason for hope.  In 2014, Tomlin would return to the rotation, but again something seemed off about Tomlin still.  He was better than where he was in 2012, but the consistency of Tomlin we were used to just wasn’t there.  In April of 2015, Tomlin learned that he would need more shoulder surgery that would keep him out of action for 3-4 months and most fans were losing hope that the consistent, change of pace starter we saw Tomlin as just wasn’t coming back.

I remember back in 2013 during a rehab stint at Akron, I saw Tomlin start a game for Akron and was amazed with his location of his pitches, but even more impressed with a new nasty curveball.  I was used to seeing Tomlin locate his fastball and changeup and keeping his pitches down in the zone, making hitters hit ground balls.  Instead I saw a pitcher who knew he had the ability to locate, but also had the stuff to get guys out.  I remember walking away amazed with Tomlin and was excited for his return to the Indians.  When he did return for that relief appearance in 2013, I saw the same Tomlin pitching in that outing.  That made his whole 2014 all the more confusing.  He seemed to be lacking trust in his stuff and was trying too hard to keep the ball down and locating it.  After his 2nd shoulder surgery, I tried to keep faith he would return with a fury, but his minor league numbers in rehab appearances weren’t anything to get excited for.

In the 2nd Half of 2015, the Indians really didn’t have much to cheer about.  The hitting outside of Michael Brantley and Jason Kipnis was non-existent, Corey Kluber was solid but got no run support, and the bullpen was shaky.  When Josh Tomlin returned, I think a lot of fans were rooting for him to return to at least a solid starter or at least a solid reliever out of the bullpen.  Nobody was prepared for what happened next.  Tomlin finally trusted all of his pitches and decided to just deal the ball.  In 10 starts, Tomlin finished with a 7-2 record with 3.02 ERA, .83 WHIP, and the biggest shocker, a 7:1 K/BB ratio.  Not only was Tomlin getting guys to ground out, he found out how to strikeout batters in the process by way of a new dominant curveball, the same one I saw back in 2013 at Akron.  Through 2016, Tomlin has continued that success, leading the Indians in wins at an 8-1 record, a 3.54 ERA, and 1.09 WHIP.

Josh Tomlin is one of the best stories in baseball that nobody talks about.  Tomlin shows that you don’t need to throw 100MPH fastballs or have a Curveball that has a big break on it.  Tomlin shows that locating your pitches, consistency, and most importantly HARD WORK can make you into a potential All-Star pitcher in the MLB.  To all the players and whoever else votes for Pitchers in the All-Star Game, I urge you to vote Josh Tomlin in.  Tomlin has been through it all and after a major surgery in Tommy John surgery, plus another shoulder surgery to see the pitcher he’s become today, as of right now I feel Josh Tomlin should represent the AL in the All-Star Game.  It’s amazing to see how far this man has come to where he is now, he is another reason why Baseball is the greatest game in the world.  Against all odds Tomlin has defied them all to become one of the league’s most consistent pitchers and every fan should recognize him for his resiliency and strength through the years, it’s the least he deserves.

Leadoff with Lee 5.7.14

-Kevin Durant was named NBA MVP yesterday. He received 119 of 125 first place votes. The other 6 votes went to Miami Heat star Lebron James. Durant averaged 32 PPG 7 REB and 5.5 AST this season. Kevin Durant also won the scoring title. He is the first player since Allen Iverson to win MVP and the scoring title in the same season. Iverson accomplished his feat in the 2000-2001 season.

-The Golden State Warriors fired head coach Mark Jackson after finishing 51-31 and losing to the LA Clippers in 7 games in the NBA playoffs. Jackson led the Warriors to back to back playoff appearances for the first time in over 20 seasons. Honestly I don't see how a talent like this can be fired after a great season and taking the potential Western Conference Champions to 7 games. I'm not sure if there was conflict in the front office or management wanted to go in another direction. One thing for sure Jackson has two things working for him. Hopefully, find another coaching job or just go back to the television booth where the Clippers hired him from.

-The Cavs, Browns and Indians sin tax won! Voters came out to the polls Tuesday and voted yes on Issue 7, to pass the 20 year extension of the tax that would help towards the improvements of Downtown Cleveland's stadiums, arena and surrounding areas. Naysayers have said the tax should not have been renewed. But the tax payers didn't have to pay any additional money. Opponent's arguments were asking why should they renew the tax, when the leases are over before the tax. Cleveland loves their teams and they won't be going anywhere with the improvements that are sure to come. #goodkarma

- Cleveland starting pitcher Josh Tomlin made his season debut and picked up his first win, in the 4-2 victory over the Minnesota Twins. Tomlin went 6.2 innings with 4 strikeouts and only 1 walk. Nick Swisher may have found his bat again, going 2 for 4 from the dish with 1 RBI and a run scored. Bryan Shaw earned his first save of the year.

-The Miami Heat knocked off any rust they might have had immediately in their 107-86 blowout over the Brooklyn Nets in Game 1. LeBron James led the way with 22 points on 10-15 shooting from the field. Ray Allen added 19 points off the bench for the Heat. After a long 7 game series with Toronto, the Nets came out looking sluggish and were not in the game at all. Game 2 will be Thursday at 7 PM.

-The San Antonio Spurs beat the Portland Trail Blazers 116-92 in Game 1 of their series. Tony Parker led the Spurs with 33 points, while LaMarcus Aldridge had 32 for the Blazers. This game also wasn't a contest. San Antonio clearly out matched the Blazers all game. Game 2 will be Thursday in San Antonio at 9:30.