Possession Arrow: MARCH MADNESS IS FINALLY HERE!

By Pat Tregoning, @PatNShaker

Welcome back to another edition of the Possession Arrow. The brackets have been announced and we will have you covered from wall-to-wall. In this edition, we will give you breakdowns of each regions, including first round upset alerts, "can't miss" match-ups in the first weekend and who I think will come out of each region.

EAST REGION: 

1. Villanova
2. Duke
3. Baylor
4. Florida
5. Virginia
6. SMU
7. South Carolina
8. Wisconsin
9. Virginia Tech
10. Marquette
11. Providence/USC
12. UNC Wilmington
13. East Tennessee State
14. New Mexico State
15. Troy
16. Mount St. Marys/New Orleans

The overall number one seed of the tournament belongs to the defending champion Villanova Wildcats. The region's top four teams are rounded out by Duke, Baylor and the Florida Gators. All eyes are pointing to a regional final at MSG of Villanova versus Duke, but do not sleep on the rest of this bracket. This region is loaded with first round upsets as well. A potential South Carolina-Duke second round matchup is something to watch for as it would set up a legitimate home game (Greenville, SC). If you are looking for possible upsets in round one? Look no further than your typical "5-12" matchup with the Virginia Cavaliers versus the University of North Carolina Wilmington (UNCW) Seahawks. Another upset to watch for in the opening round of this region is the 4:13 matchup between the Florida Gators and the East Tennessee State Buccaneers. When the smoke clears, I have the red hot Duke Blue Devils behind the play of Grayson Allen/Ohio's Luke Kennard and NBA prospect Jayson Tatum (see my NBA draft post in the archives on him) led by Coach K advancing over the defending champs to go to the Final Four.


WEST REGION

1. Gonzaga
2. Arizona
3. Florida State
4. West Virginia
5. Notre Dame
6. Maryland
7. Saint Marys
8. Northwestern (First Tourney appearance EVER)
9. Vanderbilt
10. Virginia Commonwealth (VCU)
11. Xavier
12. Princeton
13. Bucknell
14. Florida Gulf Coast
15. North Dakota
16. South Dakota State 

This region has the best chance to go upset-free in my opinion. The West is led by the Gonzaga Wildcats who held down the number one spot in the polls for most of the final third of the college basketball season. They are a team that can shoot the rock (43% from deep this season) but they also play tenacious defense (averaging five blocks per game) led by their big man Przemek Karnowski (7'1 300 lbs). Coach Mark Few always has his teams ready to go and they should have a relatively easy road to the Sweet 16.

From there? It gets interesting.

Don't sleep on Bob Huggins and "Press Virginia" team as a possible team that could knock off Gonzaga. Notre Dame's balanced team, (advanced to either Sweet 16 or Elite 8 the last two tourneys) could also pose a threat to the Bulldogs in Sweet 16 play as well.

Do not sleep on the Arizona Wildcats either to make a deep run into the tournament led by their big man Lauri Markkanen. The play of Alonzo Trier and Kobi Simmons has come on strong for Sean Miller's team at the right time, If they can combat the 2-3 zone that teams play against them, I think the Arizona Wildcats will come out of the West Region to face the Blue Devils.



MIDWEST REGION: 

1. Kansas
2. Louisville
3. Oregon
4. Purdue
5. Iowa State
6. Creighton
7. Michigan 
8. Miami Hurricanes
9. Michigan State
10. Oklahoma State 
11. Rhode Island
12. Nevada
13. Vermont
14. Iona
15. Jacksonville State
16. NC Central/UC Davis 

This is the region that could mess EVERYONE'S bracket up. I urge all readers to approach this region with caution. A possible powerhouse matchup of Kansas led by Josh Jackson versus Tom Izzo's Michigan State Spartans led by Miles Bridges could throw brackets into a tailspin. If the Jayhawks can get out of the first weekend and into the Sweet 16? They have an easy shot at reaching the Final Four.

This region is also home to the trendiest "underdog" to make a run in the tourney, John Beilein's Michigan Wolverines. After having a near-death experience and being forced to play part of the Big Ten tourney in practice uniforms, they made a cinderella run to win the B1G tourney and make the dance. They will be an underdog team to watch.

This region has upset alert potential in round one. Some possible upsets in round one include Rhode Island upsetting Creighton in the 6/11 matchup, Oklahoma State and Michigan in the 7/10 matchup and Nevada/Iowa State in the traditional 5/12 matchup as well.

Who comes out of the region in the end? It is hard to pick against the Kansas Jayhawks. Led by Player Of The Year candidates Josh Jackson and Frank Mason III and coach Bill Self, they have overcome adversity throughout the season, this March will be no different. I have the Jayhawks advancing out of the Midwest.



SOUTH REGION

1. North Carolina
2. Kentucky
3. UCLA
4. Butler
5. Minnesota
6. Cincinnati
7. Dayton
8. Arkansas
9. Seton Hall
10. Wichita State 
11. Kansas State/Wake Forest
12. Middle Tennessee
13. Winthrop
14. Kent State
15. Northern Kentucky
16. Texas Southern

This region has the best 1-2-3 seeds in the entire tournament, all three teams can make strong cases to win the National Title. Unfortunately, only one team can come out of each region. North Carolina is a veteran team that has quietly handled it's business all season. Led by coaching legend Roy Williams, the Tar Heels have proven they can win with either finesse play with guys like Joel Barry II and Justin Jackson, or by brute strength with Kennedy Meeks and Isaiah Hicks. They are a true "pick your poison" type team. All eyes will be on the guard play of UNC, after losing Kenny Williams to an ACL tear this year. Can Joel Barry have a big tournament to makeup for the thin depth of guards?

Then we have the Wildcats of Kentucky. Led by their big four of Malik Monk, De'Aaron Fox, Bam Adebayo and Isaiah Briscoe, the cats of the Bluegrass State have the NBA-ready talent but what they lack the most? Veteran leadership. With only three players on their roster with at least two years of collegiate playing experience, it will be interesting to see how they handle the bright lights and big stage of this tournament, as it could be the only thing standing between them and another title for Big Blue Nation.

Finally, there is the UCLA Bruins. Everyone is talking about Lonzo Ball (more for his Dad's comments but that is for another day) but you can not leave out the play of freshman big TJ Leaf as well with the two of them becoming the Bruins most dynamic duo since two guys by the names of Russell Westbrook and Kevin Love. This Bruins team is not afraid of the big stage (win at Kentucky) and they can also score with the best of them 90.5 points per game. The offensive efficiency is key for the Bruins to make a deep tournament run and if they can tighten up the defense? Look out for Steve Alford's team.

If you are looking for first round upsets, this region will have them for you. I like 12th seeded Middle Tennessee led by Giddy Potts (best name in College Hoops ever) over the 5th seeded Golden Gophers of Minnesota in round one and don't rule out 10 seed Wichita State getting past the 7th seeded Flyers of Dayton in round one.

So who comes out of this top heavy region? I think the offensive efficiency of the UCLA Bruins find a way to slay the beasts of the South Region and head to the Final Four.



So then there were four.....

National Semifinal one: Duke Blue Devils vs Arizona Wildcats

Two teams with potent offenses could make for a classic Final Four matchup. Arizona with six players averaging between 9 and 17 points per game while Duke has a rounded offensive attack between Kennard/Allen and the other teammates. This might come down to whomever has the ball last. In the end? I think the Duke Blue Devils have just too many weapons for the Wildcats to deal with and advance to the National Title Game.

National Semifinal two: Kansas Jayhawks vs UCLA Bruins

These two teams cancel each other out matchup wise. You have a strong point guard matchup between Frank Mason III and Lonzo Ball. With strong play from forwards TJ Leaf and Josh Jackson, these teams matchup very well. At the end of the day? I think UCLA Bruins pulls a 2016 Villanova and rides the wave of offensive efficiency and reaches the National Title game.

National Title game: Duke Blue Devils vs UCLA Bruins

In a matchup of scoring attacks, Duke and UCLA could setup for an instant classic National Title game. Can Lonzo cement his place in UCLA lore? Or can Duke overcome the season of adversity? In the end, I think Duke has the most reliable offensive weapons and when they need to, they can lock in and play defense. It also comes down to coaching and when comparing the coaches, it's no question, you go with Coach K over Steve Alford. With that being said, I have the Duke Blue Devils cutting down the nets and winning the 2017 National Championship. 

There you have it folks, my March Madness prediction for this season. May your pencils be sharpened and may the brackets be forever in your favor. 

Possession Arrow: Ten NBA Lottery Prospects To Watch

By Pat Tregoning, @PatNShaker

Welcome back to another edition of the Possession Arrow! In this edition, we will breakdown 10 of the top names to watch for the upcoming NBA Lottery. We will give a preview on each prospect and also a player comparison for each lottery prospect. You should expect to hear these names called by Commissioner Silver this upcoming July.

Josh Jackson, G/F, Kansas, Freshman

Josh Jackson is a versatile small forward that has incredible potential for NBA success. He is light on his feet and brings great energy and overall competitiveness to the table. He has great court vision which allows himself to be a threat on the move whether it is to score or be a distributor. Great ball-handling skills which allows him to create a play off the dribble with ease. He needs to work on improving his jump shot and adding more offensive consistency to his game. Older for his class. He will turn 20 this February.

Comparison: Tracy McGrady, Andrew Wiggins

Dennis Smith, PG, North Carolina State, Freshman

Dennis Smith is a point guard with good size (6’2”) and great potential intangibles for the PG position. With an explosive first step, he attacks the rim with aggression and finishes well. Smith sees the floor well and is a very unselfish player, passing the ball with ease. He handles the ball well and gets where we needs to go off the dribble. Good defensive player for his position that shows flashes of strong perimeter defense. He can improve his offensive consistency both with the ball (shot 22.5 percent from three in the Adidas Gauntlet tournament) and off the ball offensively. He sat out his senior season of High School after tearing his ACL, raising questions and concerns about whether or not he is ‘injury prone’.

Comparison: Eric Bledsoe, Steve Francis

Markelle Fultz, G, Washington, Freshman

Fultz might be the one prospect to watch that barely anyone is talking about (unless you are on the Washington campus). At 6’5”, he is a guard that has strong athleticism. He changes direction really well with a quick first step. Fultz attacks gaps in the defense and takes it strong to the hole. Finishes well through contact. Fultz is a strong slasher that gets where he wants off the dribble well. He can be successful with scoring for himself as well as making plays for others. Good jumpshot from three but he also has a strong offensive game in transition. He can also get to the free throw line with little trouble. A true “stat sheet stuffer”. Above average rebounding skills for his position. He shows great potential with his size, length, and quickness. A true competitor. Jump shot has improved since HS but has shown signs of being a streaky shooter. Doesn’t score much from midrange jumpers, usually all three pointers or getting all the way to the rim. He has room to become more consistent on the offensive side of the ball. He could look to become stronger in his legs.

Comparison: Floor? Jordan Clarkson, Ceiling? Russell Westbrook

Lonzo Ball, G, UCLA, Freshman

Lonzo is tall for his position at 6’6 but possesses great overall size and length for a point guard. He has strong court vision, passing, and playmaking ability. Makes one handed passes with either hand. He has shown quick decision making skills on the court, putting the ball where it needs to go. He can pin point where outlet passes need to go when trying to start the fast break. Lonzo is a great ball handler and floor general with high basketball IQ and ideal point guard traits. Brings out the best in his teammates. Can play alongside great teammates at the next level, isn’t hindered by others taking the shots. Plays very even-keeled and nonchalant and doesn’t ever show signs of getting rattled. Can play off the ball as well. Great rebounder on both ends for a guard. Stat sheet stuffer. His shooting motion will need work at the next level, while he makes shots from deep, it is a very unorthodox style. He could also afford the ability to improve his strength, he lacks the explosion at times to make the necessary plays.

Comparison: Jason Kidd

Frank Ntilikina, G, France

Frank is the ideal “pass first” point guard. With good size for his position, Frank has shown very good athleticism and quickness. He is very mature for his young age, holding a strong basketball IQ. While he has a thin frame to some scouts, his body structure also suggests he has the room to add weight and muscle tone to become stronger. He is an excellent passer with above average court vision. He can pass while in motion as well as when he penetrates the defense. He controls the game very well. He excels in running the break and playing in the open court. He can run the P&R as the ball-handler really well because he shows the patience in making the correct pass. He can create his own scoring opportunity off the dribble, showing a good mid range game. On defense, his lateral quickness helps him stay in front of his man while his length and overall athleticism helps create steals. Adding strength and muscle tone is vitally important for his long term success in the NBA. He needs to become more vocal and learn when he has to take over a game. He must add some aggressiveness to his game. He isn’t NBA ready right now, but he has the upside to be a very good player.

Comparison: Dante Exum

De’Aaron Fox, PG, Kentucky, Freshman

De’Aaron has good size and length for the position with explosive athleticism. He can change speeds very well and knows when to turn on the afterburners. He is a great lead guard when playing in transition. He likes to push the ball up the floor and can be tough to defend on the break. He has great overall quickness and great reaction time. Shows a strong court vision and above average passing abilities. Good ball-handling skills. Has the ability to avoid traps and break a press by himself. De’Aaron plays with a lot of creativity and craftiness who can get where he wants off the dribble. He has strong footwork in traffic who can score from multiple spots on the floor. Good midrange game where we can be tough to stop offensively. He rebounds well for a guard. At times can be a top notch defender especially on the ball. Great defensive tools for his age. He can be a streaky shooter at times who needs to develop more of a consistent offensive game. He is very light, listed around 175-180 pounds so muscle and strength in his upper and lower body are essential. He tends to try and do too much at times which can lead to a high number of turnovers. Decision making on the court could afford to be improved. Has the tools to be a great point guard at the next level.

Comparison: Brandon Knight

Malik Monk, SG, Kentucky, Freshman

Monk is a prospect with huge hops and high athleticism. He's exceptionally quick with an explosive first step. He plays strong above the rim already and shows signs of getting stronger in his game above the rim. He has a good shooting motion and has shown great improvement from outside offensively. He has the tools to be a strong NBA level scorer. Malik does a great job of getting into the lane and pushing the ball up the floor in transition. He is a skilled passer with strong ball handling skills. He is a player that can come through in clutch moments for his teams. He lives for those moments. He plays with great confidence. He needs to learn to be a better coach on the floor. He has shown at times that he can force his shot instead of making the simple pass. He needs to work on playing with better discipline. He can afford to improve his overall strength and consistency in his game. He has the chance to be a great player at the next level.

Comparison: Bradley Beal, Zach Lavine

Jonathan Isaac, SF/PF, Florida State, Freshman

Jonathan is a versatile forward listed at 6’10”. He has great size and length to play the perimeter. Good athleticism with great coordination. He can run the floor like a guard with great mobility. He has good ball handling ability for his size while showing flashes of being able to create off of the dribble. He has a smooth shooting stroke. He is good from midrange and can extend to the three point line. He is a good shooter off the catch as well as off the dribble. He can score a multitude of different ways as well. Issac has good defensive ability and versatility with good lateral quickness that keeps him in front of his own man. He has great hustle when going after loose balls and rebounds as well. He was a very late bloomer that is still learning the game but he has also shown good NBA potential.

Comparison: Rashard Lewis

Jayson Tatum, SF, Duke, Freshman

Jayson is a very versatile, strong and athletic wing who has great potential to be successful at the next level. He does a great job of scoring from all three levels with an especially good mid range game as well. He can get his shot against any defender offensively. Tatum possesses good ball handling skills which when combined with his athletic versatility, allows him to get past defenders and score at the hole or give himself space to hit his strong step-back, midrange jumper. He should be a nightmare to defend offensively at the next level. He also has good playmaking skills. He will be a tough matchup on the defensive side at the ball. Thanks to Tatum’s athletic versatility, he has the ability to guard multiple positions on the floor. I don’t project him as much of a rim protector at the NBA level right now, but he can improve on that as time goes on. He can also improve his overall strength as right now he probably will struggle with being able to both overpower and overmatch defenders at the next level too. He has the tools to be a successful forward in the NBA.

Comparison: Danny Granger

Lauri Markkanen, PF, Arizona, Freshman

Lauri is a big man that is well coordinated and very mobile for his size. (7 footer). At 7 feet tall, Markkanen can handle the ball, hit shots on the move, and he looks like a natural on the court. He's versatile in that he has the skill set of a small forward but he also has the right amount of power and strength to guard at the rim. He can change ends very effortlessly, thanks to his speed and mobility for his size. Markkanen has great form on his jumper and hits a high percentage from 3 and from the free throw line. I think he has really good potential to be a good three point shooter in the NBA, especially for his size.
He fights for all of his rebounds and does an especially good job at crashing the offensive glass. He also plays with good awareness and aggression. Defensively, Markkanen is a decent shot blocker thanks to his good strength and reaction as a defender. He has a high basketball I.Q. which helps him defend multiple positions. He can look a bit heavy-footed at times. He is definitely still developing as a post defender on the defensive side of the ball. He is still developing his ball handling and passing abilities on the offensive side of the ball as well. 


Comparison: Nikola Mirotic